The election this week of a new Scottish Parliament is expected to result in a referendum on Scottish independence as early as 2010.

The election of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) is widely anticipated in elections May 3 to the now seven-year-old seat of devolved rule, known as Holyrood. While the SNP are not going to win an outright majority, the Scottish electorate is expected to overturn the Labour government and the SNP will take power and form a minority government.

Reading the SNP outline of the benefits of independence is much like reading speeches prior to the 1995 Quebec referendum by Lucien Bouchard or Jacques Parizeau; you need only substitute Quebec for Scotland, and the main themes look the same:

  • Scotland needs full control of its national affairs to attain its economic potential and a brighter future for all
  • Independence is the normal political status for a country such as Scotland
  • A successful referendum will be followed by negotiations on independence

However important the Quebec example to Scottish nationalists, and however encouraging an eventual winning Scottish referendum would be for Quebec nationalists, Scotland is not Quebec.

Until 300 years ago, and its union with England, Scotland was an independent Kingdom. Until London granted limited home rule, Scottish status within the United Kingdom was analogous to that of the Gaspé Peninsula within Quebec: distinct, but powerless to stop the drain of people, wealth, and resources.

An independent Scotland would join the European Union. As such it would have the terms of its new partnership with its former state, the United Kingdom, determined in advance. As EU members, Scotland and the UK would have open borders, the right to work in each country, and the same passport.

It is proposed that Quebec leave a legislative union — Canada — and create an independent state that would negotiate a new association as an equal to Canada. The terms of secession would be negotiated, as the Supreme Court advised in its clarity bill reference. However, there are no provisions under the Canadian constitution, or NAFTA, that would apply to an independent Quebec. New arrangements would have to be won out of give-and-take negotiations.

Interestingly, the Scottish nationalists envisage keeping the Queen as head of state, which is hardly a part of the PQ program for independence.

While Scotland could give up the pound and adopt the Euro as its currency, the Quebec independence movement has never resolved the currency issue in satisfactory way. Initially, the economic expert, Jacques Parizeau, favoured a new Quebec currency; later, the PQ decided an independent Quebec would continue to use the Canadian dollar. Latterly, the Bloc has called on Canada to join a North American monetary union, in other words, adopt the U.S. dollar.

As Quebec (and Gaspé) have, Scotland has provided Prime Ministers, other leaders and ideas to the centre. In the 19th century, as the UK emerged as the hegemonic power in the world and the inventor of capitalism, Scots provided most of the thinkers in political economy, and engineering.

While the 1867 Canadian constitution provided for a strong central government, it also established what have become autonomous provinces. While Quebec authority has been tested in clashes with Ottawa, the entire country slowly evolved from a self-governing colony within the British Empire to a sovereign state, largely because of the urgings of Quebec political figures, most notably, Henri Bourassa, founder of Le Devoir.

Attempts to integrate Quebec as Lower Canada with the Anglophone Upper Canada under the 1840 Act of Union ended in rebellion, not assimilation of the French speakers of Canada East, as the British Lord Durham had willed.

As New France, Quebec was an early European settlement in North America, about 400 years ago. Ceded to Britain by the Treaty of Paris in 1763, the balance of local and world political forces were lined up against it. Yet Quebec has kept its language, and is noted worldwide for its vibrant cultural production and expression. While far from extinct, the Scottish language fares poorly, and English has replaced Gaelic in virtually all aspects of life.

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland includes the somewhat autonomous regions of Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as Scotland. As the northern region of Great Britain, Scotland is geographically, as well as culturally and historically distinct. In this it more like Newfoundland, Nova Scotia or P.E.I. than Quebec.

As with Quebec, the Scottish presence has had a determining political influence on wider public life. Scottish independence would be a great blow to the Labour Party of Tony Blair and his likely successor, a Scot, Gordon Brown. Without Scotland, Labour would become a quasi-permanent minority party.

As in Canada, partisan political passions joined to national identities make for high energy clashes of opinion. Canadians will watch the proceedings with more interest than most outsiders.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...