2017 Nova Scotia Election

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jerrym
2017 Nova Scotia Election

Since no one else has started a Nova Scotia election thread, I will. However, I will leave it to people far more knowledgeable than me to discuss the issues specific to this province. 

The Nova Scotia election will be held on May 30tth. 

Party standings and candidates, as well as an list of updated opinion polls can be found below. The last four polls between March 1st and May 4th have shown relatively stable percentages for the political parties:

Liberals 42% - 45%; Conseratives 27% - 31%; NDP 23% - 25%; and Greens 1% - 5%. 

However, the Liberals have fallen from 58% in January, when the Conseratives were much lower at 21%, as were the NDP at 18%, so the Liberal losses were roughly equally split between the Conservatives and NDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova_Scotia_general_election,_2017

 

 

Hunky_Monkey

Current CBC poll tracker has:

Liberals 31 seats
PC 16 seats
NDP 4 seats

Feel the Burrill!  

That said, three weeks to go and a lot can happen.  Hopefully, the NDP is able to pick up some support and at least get around 10 seats.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I hope you're not still thinking they should've stayed with Dexter. 

Hunky_Monkey

Ken Burch wrote:

I hope you're not still thinking they should've stayed with Dexter. 

I don't recall saying that.  Dexter resigned after losing.  However, at this point, looks like he won more seats and more vote than what it looks like Burrill may achieve.  Still time for Burrill to turn things around.  Appears the "Red Tory" PC Party, promising not to cut and but be fiscally purdent, is picking up steam.  

Stockholm

What exactly did the Dexter government actually accomplish or leave as a lasting legacy? All i can think of is that they raised the HST by 2%, subsidized a lot of businesses with corporate welfare and landed a ship-building contract. Am i missing anything?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

I hope you're not still thinking they should've stayed with Dexter. 

I don't recall saying that.  Dexter resigned after losing.  However, at this point, looks like he won more seats and more vote than what it looks like Burrill may achieve.  Still time for Burrill to turn things around.  Appears the "Red Tory" PC Party, promising not to cut and but be fiscally purdent, is picking up steam.  

I didn't accuse you of SAYING it.  The remark came from my recollection of you being the most dug-in defender of Dexter when he was in office.  It was meant more as a question, and I should have phrased it AS a question.

I suspect I posted that in a harsher tone than I otherwise might have because of the "Feel the Burrill!" tagline, which sounded like a sarcastic taunt.

​If you are leading a party that's been knocked down to third-place, you should get a little more slack, I think, than if you won the last election, but then led your party into a serious deficit in the polls and then on TO a third-place finish-especially if that happened, at least in part, because you put a right-wing political priority(tight budgets)above the priorities of the left(social and economic justice and the notion of human equality).  

 

Hunky_Monkey

Stockholm wrote:

What exactly did the Dexter government actually accomplish or leave as a lasting legacy? All i can think of is that they raised the HST by 2%, subsidized a lot of businesses with corporate welfare and landed a ship-building contract. Am i missing anything?

Dexter wasn't perfect.  He didn't create utopia overnight.  

If you look at their list of accomplishments, it's a solid one.  And his government was far better than what we have now or what came before him.

He took some decisions that the left in his caucus didn't care for like the shipbuilding loan.  But common sense would suggest that investing $300 million into a project with an anticipated $2.8 billion return to the Nova Scotia economy would be a smart decision.  BTW, most of that is with economic conditions attached.  If not met, it's repayable.  It was used to build state of the art contruction facilities and also for job training.

It's interesting.  Gary and people like Howard Epstein didn't make life easy for the Dexter government.  Now, Gary has just found out apparently all the great work the Dexter government did on the health file for example that went down the drain upon the election of a right-wing Liberal government.

Bottom line - Dexter was a good premier in governing but a terrible politician under attack.  The Liberals spent a quarter of a million dollars in attack ads against the Dexter NDP and we were silent.  One senior cabinet minister said she couldn't believe it.  We sat there and took it.  And when we did finally respond, it was far too late and weak.  

The Dexter government was the most progressive we've had.  They made mistakes.  They weren't perfect.  But it's a record we shouldn't run from.  

Hunky_Monkey

New polls out suggest the Liberals are starting to dip with the Tories and NDP picking up a bit.  

Current CRA poll numbers - Liberals 40%, Tories 32%, NDP 25%.   Liberals are down 6 points.  Tories up 3 points.  NDP up 2 points.  

CBC projected seats at this point look promising.  Liberals 24 seats, Tories 19 seats, NDP 8 seats.  

I would suspect the increased Tory support may be helping the NDP in Halifax and Dartmouth.  However, with the NDP polling low outside Halifax, we could lose our more rural seats like Lenore Zann's.  The Tories nominated a strong star candidate there and have targeted that riding.  She may be in a tough fight come election night. 

Stockholm

Its getting even more interesting in Nova Scotia. Today's CRA numbers: Liberals 37%, Tories 32%, NDP 27%.   Liberals are down another 3 points.  Tories flat.  NDP up 2 more points. If those numbers hold we would definitely be looking at a minority government and the NDP would almost certainly gain some new seats in Halifax 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And there's still plenty of time between now and polling day...so DO FEEL THE BURRILL!!!

(or something...I get the Bernie allusion, but it doesn't quite sound right when you say it like that).

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

These people are feeling the burl.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Nice.

Hunky_Monkey

"Feel the Burrill" was a phase his supporters came up with copying "Feel the Bern" from the Sanders campaign.  I kid you not.

Hunky_Monkey

Stockholm wrote:

Its getting even more interesting in Nova Scotia. Today's CRA numbers: Liberals 37%, Tories 32%, NDP 27%.   Liberals are down another 3 points.  Tories flat.  NDP up 2 more points. If those numbers hold we would definitely be looking at a minority government and the NDP would almost certainly gain some new seats in Halifax 

I predict the NDP will win around 10 seats.  Of course, who knows what will happen in the next two weeks.

The Tories announced their platform today and was widely seen as a bad day for them.  While Burrill is up front about running deficits with no end in sight, PC Leader Baillie promises to balance the budget, with increased spending committments, by finding "savings".  Not sure how much savings there are in health administration for example which is one area he's pointed to.  

Will this matter?  I don't know.  They may overlook the fine print if there start to feel more comfortable ditching McNeil.

People like the Liberal brand but dislike the Premier.  However, neither Burrill or Baillie are really catching fire.  They dislike McNeil as a person but still trust him to be premier over the other two.  At this point.

The Premier had a BAD week last week.  His communications director had to step down due to a previous domestic assualt conviction and one of his candidates had to step down due to an inappropriate tweet a few years ago.

Burrill is likable and doesn't come off as a smooth politician which can work to his benefit.  Problem at this point is that there isn't a coherent message or focus to the campaign.

And Baillie isn't Mr. Gravitas.  But he's selling himself as a big "Progressive" Conservative.   Not quite his record as Chief of Staff in the Hamm government where they made big cuts and Baillie himself had a major role in cutting the provincial arts council.

At this stage, I predict a minority Liberal win.  The NDP seems poised to elect some new blood which is great especially for post-Burrill leadership.  And younger new blood too like Claudia Chender in Dartmouth South, Andre Cain in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley, and hopefully Bill McEwen in Dartmouth East.

Hunky_Monkey

Stockholm wrote:

Its getting even more interesting in Nova Scotia. Today's CRA numbers: Liberals 37%, Tories 32%, NDP 27%.   Liberals are down another 3 points.  Tories flat.  NDP up 2 more points. If those numbers hold we would definitely be looking at a minority government and the NDP would almost certainly gain some new seats in Halifax 

From what I understand, the Liberals had a very strong lead in rural NS and Cape Breton and was ahead of the NDP in Halifax/Dartmouth by about three points.  The problem?  More seats in the Halifax area.  Even with a 10 point lead on the Tories, that lead is built up in ridings they're expected to win by big margins.  

I suspect now that the lead is shrinking, the Tories could be doing damage to them in rural NS.  And in Halifax where they sometimes poll low teens, extra strength by taking from the Liberals could help the NDP in close NDP vs Liberal seats.

Stockholm

The NDP continues to inch up. Today's poll

Liberals 38% (+1)

PCs 31% (-1)

NDP 28% (+1)

ghoris

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

At this stage, I predict a minority Liberal win.  The NDP seems poised to elect some new blood which is great especially for post-Burrill leadership.  And younger new blood too like Claudia Chender in Dartmouth South, Andre Cain in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley, and hopefully Bill McEwen in Dartmouth East.

FWIW, I'd like to add my endorsement for my law school classmate Claudia Chender. I am very confident that the people of Dartmouth South would be well-served by Claudia, who would be an outstanding MLA.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Seventeen days left and it looks to be up for grabs.  Will there be televised leader's debates?

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

Seventeen days left and it looks to be up for grabs.  Will there be televised leader's debates?

Here's the info on the debate:

The three leaders of Nova Scotia's major political parties will lock horns Thursday, May 18, in the only leaders debate of the 2017 Nova Scotia election campaign.

Beginning at 6 p.m., Liberal Leader Stephen McNeil, Progressive Conservative Leader Jamie Baillie and NDP Leader Gary Burrill will discuss issues such as labour relations, education, health and the economy.

CBC Nova Scotia News hosts Tom Murphy and Amy Smith will moderate the 90-minute, commercial-free debate which will be broadcast:

Viewers watching the debate on our Facebook page will also be able to post questions, some of which will be posed to the leaders.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/cbc-nova-scotia-hosts-leaders-...

 

jerrym

An NDP candidate has stepped down over gay and misogynistic comments on a website in the past. 

An NDP candidate in Dartmouth, N.S., has stepped down after a media report about inappropriate statements he made in the past. Dartmouth East candidate Bill McEwen issued a statement Monday saying he regrets his behaviour and wants to take responsibility for his actions. ...

The statement followed a CTV Atlantic report about sexist content on a website McEwen hosted and his use of derogatory language to describe people who are gay. "I apologize for my past actions and believe that I must be accountable to my community and the residents of Dartmouth East for inappropriate statements I made and supported in the past," he said in the statement. Sexism, misogyny, and homophobia are pervasive within our culture. We must work hard to combat these, and other forms of oppression within our communities, and within ourselves."

McEwen becomes the second candidate to step aside after past social media comments came to light. The Liberals dropped Pictou East candidate Matt MacKnight a week ago over similar inappropriate social media commentary.

McEwen did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CBC News.

It is now too late for the NDP to run a replacement candidate in the riding because the deadline to do so has passed.

Dartmouth East is a highly sought-after riding because Independent MLA Andrew Younger is not reoffering this election.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/dartmouth-east-ndp-drops-out-o...

 

Unionist

Four years ago:

Why a Dexter NDP government defeat would be a progressive victory

Has this analysis stood the test of time?

 

NorthReport
jerrym

A third candidate has had to resign over because of Internet comments. Each of the three major party has now lost a candidate because of this. One major difference is that the Liberal candidate resignation occurred early enough in the campaign that the Liberals were able to replace him, but this was not the case for the other two parties.

The Liberals were able to replace Matthew McKnight with John Fraser  in Pictou East because provincial election nominations had not closed. 

Inappropriate, sexist and homophobic language left lingering on the Internet has been exacting a toll on the list of political hopefuls in Nova Scotia’s election, with a third candidate forced to withdraw Tuesday.

The Tories sent out a terse news release Tuesday afternoon noting that its candidate for Dartmouth South, Jad Cmogorac, was being dropped because of her social media postings.

Her postings included an off-colour date rape joke.

The withdrawal came a day after CTV News published excerpts from the Bullpen website of Dartmouth East candidate Bill McEwen, a youthful prospect for the NDP in a riding that appeared to be a hard-fought contest.

The former military officer and journalist had attempted to take the website down — after not posting on it since 2013 — but someone managed to find it from a cached archive.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/16/third-candidate-forced-to...

jerrym

On the eve of Thursday's televised leaders' debate, CRA shows the Liberals at 43%, PCs 28%, and the NDP at 26%, representing a decrease in the margin between the PCs and NDP 7% to 2% between the May 6 and May 17 CRA polls. 

http://thechronicleherald.ca/nsvotes/1466845-daily-poll-may-17-liberals-...

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Nova Scotia NDP platform unapologetically embraces deficit spending

NDP Leader Gary Burrill enthusiastically and unapologetically embraced something Nova Scotia politicians have repeatedly promised to eliminate for decades — deficits.

If elected, his party is promising to run deficits through not only the first mandate, but possibly through two.

The NDP's platform includes almost $1 billion in spending over and above what the Liberals promised in the budget tabled last month, which never passed.

Burrill launched the platform Monday morning at Dalhousie University's Student Union Building and said Nova Scotia needs major spending....

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..from the above post. what a difference from the dexter piece you posted unionist.

quote:

Platform promises

The NDP is promising to spend over four years:

  • $123.6 million to open seven new collaborative-care centres, and to hire more doctors and nurses.
  • $229 million in yet-to-be announced early childhood investments.
  • $138.5 million to eliminate tuition fees to attend the Nova Scotia Community College (Starting at $33 million in year one and increasing by about $1 million every year for three years).
  • $76 million to cut university tuition by 10 per cent over four years.
  • $123 million to reinstate the previous Nova Scotia Film Tax Credit program.
  • $165 million to subsidize food costs for low-income families.

The party said the net effect of the NDP spending over four years would total $966 million in deficits, but it claimed the province's net-debt-to-GDP ratio would not grow over the four years because a growing economy would cushion part of the blow.

The four-year plan also includes:

  • Raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
  • Ending so-called corporate welfare.
  • Introducing fixed election date legislation.
  • Instituting a system of proportional representation.

jerrym

The latest polls (last day of polling May 17th, the day before the debate) show the Liberals losing support to the NDP and Conseratives. The Liberals have dropped from 42%-43% that was sustained for a week to 37% (Forum) and 39% (CRA) while the NDP has increased from 24% t0 25% (Forum) and 27% (CRA) while the Conservatives have also moved from 30% to 35% (Forum) and 31% (CRA).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova_Scotia_general_election,_2017

 

NorthReport
jerrym

The podcast of the election debate can be found at the url below as the polls tighten: 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-laroche-1.4123389

Hunky_Monkey

CRA is seen as the gold standard in NS polling.  Today, they have the NDP at 25%, PC Party at 32%, Liberals 40%.

The interesting aspect to today's result is that Burrill for the first time has moved into second place for choice of premier.  Although, that's 500 people polled and within the margin of error. 

Hunky_Monkey

Seems the Burrill NDP is stuck around 25% and is staying in that ballpark.  CBC has them winning 5 seats in their current projections.  I think that may be a bit low.  Hopefully it is as I'd like to see some new NDP MLAs for the post Burrill leadership.  May be especially important if Burrill doesn't win his own seat next week.  I'm hoping for around 8 seats now.  10 I'd be delighted.