2017 Nova Scotia Election

I don't recall saying that.  Dexter resigned after losing.  However, at this point, looks like he won more seats and more vote than what it looks like Burrill may achieve.  Still time for Burrill to turn things around.  Appears the "Red Tory" PC Party, promising not to cut and but be fiscally purdent, is picking up steam.  

I didn't accuse you of SAYING it.  The remark came from my recollection of you being the most dug-in defender of Dexter when he was in office.  It was meant more as a question, and I should have phrased it AS a question.

I suspect I posted that in a harsher tone than I otherwise might have because of the "Feel the Burrill!" tagline, which sounded like a sarcastic taunt.

​If you are leading a party that's been knocked down to third-place, you should get a little more slack, I think, than if you won the last election, but then led your party into a serious deficit in the polls and then on TO a third-place finish-especially if that happened, at least in part, because you put a right-wing political priority(tight budgets)above the priorities of the left(social and economic justice and the notion of human equality).  

 

New polls out suggest the Liberals are starting to dip with the Tories and NDP picking up a bit.  

Current CRA poll numbers - Liberals 40%, Tories 32%, NDP 25%.   Liberals are down 6 points.  Tories up 3 points.  NDP up 2 points.  

CBC projected seats at this point look promising.  Liberals 24 seats, Tories 19 seats, NDP 8 seats.  

I would suspect the increased Tory support may be helping the NDP in Halifax and Dartmouth.  However, with the NDP polling low outside Halifax, we could lose our more rural seats like Lenore Zann's.  The Tories nominated a strong star candidate there and have targeted that riding.  She may be in a tough fight come election night. 

And there's still plenty of time between now and polling day...so DO FEEL THE BURRILL!!!

(or something...I get the Bernie allusion, but it doesn't quite sound right when you say it like that).

Nice.

I predict the NDP will win around 10 seats.  Of course, who knows what will happen in the next two weeks.

The Tories announced their platform today and was widely seen as a bad day for them.  While Burrill is up front about running deficits with no end in sight, PC Leader Baillie promises to balance the budget, with increased spending committments, by finding "savings".  Not sure how much savings there are in health administration for example which is one area he's pointed to.  

Will this matter?  I don't know.  They may overlook the fine print if there start to feel more comfortable ditching McNeil.

People like the Liberal brand but dislike the Premier.  However, neither Burrill or Baillie are really catching fire.  They dislike McNeil as a person but still trust him to be premier over the other two.  At this point.

The Premier had a BAD week last week.  His communications director had to step down due to a previous domestic assualt conviction and one of his candidates had to step down due to an inappropriate tweet a few years ago.

Burrill is likable and doesn't come off as a smooth politician which can work to his benefit.  Problem at this point is that there isn't a coherent message or focus to the campaign.

And Baillie isn't Mr. Gravitas.  But he's selling himself as a big "Progressive" Conservative.   Not quite his record as Chief of Staff in the Hamm government where they made big cuts and Baillie himself had a major role in cutting the provincial arts council.

At this stage, I predict a minority Liberal win.  The NDP seems poised to elect some new blood which is great especially for post-Burrill leadership.  And younger new blood too like Claudia Chender in Dartmouth South, Andre Cain in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley, and hopefully Bill McEwen in Dartmouth East.

The NDP continues to inch up. Today's poll

Liberals 38% (+1)

PCs 31% (-1)

NDP 28% (+1)

Seventeen days left and it looks to be up for grabs.  Will there be televised leader's debates?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/ns-2017-poll-tracker-1.4094117

..from the above post. what a difference from the dexter piece you posted unionist.

quote:

Platform promises

The NDP is promising to spend over four years:

• $123.6 million to open seven new collaborative-care centres, and to hire more doctors and nurses.
• $229 million in yet-to-be announced early childhood investments.
• $138.5 million to eliminate tuition fees to attend the Nova Scotia Community College (Starting at $33 million in year one and increasing by about $1 million every year for three years).
• $76 million to cut university tuition by 10 per cent over four years.
• $123 million to reinstate the previous Nova Scotia Film Tax Credit program.
• $165 million to subsidize food costs for low-income families.

The party said the net effect of the NDP spending over four years would total $966 million in deficits, but it claimed the province's net-debt-to-GDP ratio would not grow over the four years because a growing economy would cushion part of the blow.

The four-year plan also includes:

• Raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
• Ending so-called corporate welfare.
• Introducing fixed election date legislation.
• Instituting a system of proportional representation.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/ns-2017-poll-tracker-1.4094117

CRA is seen as the gold standard in NS polling.  Today, they have the NDP at 25%, PC Party at 32%, Liberals 40%.

The interesting aspect to today's result is that Burrill for the first time has moved into second place for choice of premier.  Although, that's 500 people polled and within the margin of error. 

What would you see as the minimum showing Burrill would need to stay in the job?  Or are you just assuming he'll have to go, no matter what?

Wouldn't you at least partially agree that the way Dexter ran the party(constantly going out of his way to present himself as hostile to the left, to people on benefits, to unions, even if some of his actual policies were progressive) made the election of someone like Burrill inevitable?

(note: in describing Dexter's approach leadership, I'm relying on the many links posted here from Nova Scotia Dippers and other people on the NS left-that's not something I'm inventing).

If you'd been advising Dexter yourself, what would you have said about what looked like the anti-left combativeness in his personal political style?  Would you have encouraged him in it, or suggested he might consider dialing it back?
 

 

Do we know if they ARE over Bob Rae?

Actually, under interim leader Maureen MacDonald, the NDP polled around 30% while the Tories were a distant third.

The result tomorrow, good or bad, is on Burrill.  Right now, it looks iffy.  CBC projections has the NDP winning three seats.  I'm still predicting around 8 if things go right.  Maybe I'm being optimistic... 

It is tough for a party that loses to win again right away in NS.  That's a given.  The Tories were last in power in 2009.  They probably won't win again until next election.  The Liberals were in opposition since 1999 until 2013.  But I would hope with such a nasty Liberal government with an unpopular premier that the NDP would do better than what is expected.  It seems Burrill and his program has not caught on and actually has turned off many voters.  I know of several NDP voters now voting for the Baillie Tories with his "progressive" Red Tory act (left of the Liberals).
 

It seems as with a lot of NDP members, the Burrill NDP team lives in a bubble and doesn't understand the general NS voter.

And what, as you see it, does this "average Nova Scotia voter" want?  Is such a voter ONLY going to vote NDP if that party's leader treats most of her or his own party as the enemy?  Focuses their energy on promising things only rich people out before all else, like perpetually balanced budget?  If you had your way, would the NSNDP have any significantly different policies than those of the old parties?

Indeed.  Which means Burrill is blameless if they don't win this time.

• The NDP opened Canada’s first Collaborative Emergency Centres to provide 24/7 emergency care and same or next day appointments. Eight have already opened or are in planning stages. ER closures were reduced for four years in a row.
• The NDP launched the first ever strategy to help Nova Scotians and their families who are living with mental health and addictions.
• The NDP Fair Drug Pricing plan caps the price of generic drugs, ensuring lower prices for Nova Scotians and a better deal for taxpayers.
• The NDP reversed the drastic cuts to children’s dental care made by the Liberals. In 2013 we increased the age for children’s basic dental care, from 10 to 13. Coverage will be extended to age 17. This will make Nova Scotia’s Oral Health Program one of the most accessible dental coverage programs in Canada.
• The NDP helped recruit more rural doctors and hired more nurse practitioners.
• Ambulance fees are waived for low-income Nova Scotians and for seniors with mobility issues.
• We hired more mental health clinicians in schools, and expanded 24/7 access to mental health crisis intervention province-wide, with the Mental Health Crisis Line.
• The NDP expanded newborn screening tests to include cystic fibrosis, sickle cell anemia, and eight additional conditions.
• We brought the emergency room to people with the RESTORE program, so paramedics can administer clot-busting drugs to patients having a heart attack instead of waiting until arriving at the hospital.
• The NDP expanded Lucentis treatment to Cape Breton to ensure all Nova Scotians suffering from a chronic retina disease will now get the treatment they need closer to home.
• The NDP increased the minimum wage four years in a row, despite opposition pressure to limit increases.
• The NDP established Arts Nova Scotia and improved the Film Tax Credit to help support the creative economy.
• The NDP reduced the small business tax rate by 40%, the first time it has been reduced in almost 20 years.
• The NDP protected families and jobs and helped to reposition the forestry sector to take advantage of today’s opportunities with an investment in the former NewPage mill.

• We made an investment in the future of the province by ensuring lands formerly owned by Bowater were not sold to foreign interests. We are creating community forests and a centre for cleaner energy, bio-energy and forestry innovation.
• Through our 10-year plan for agriculture, Homegrown Success, the NDP made strategic investments in innovation and productivity to increase the competitiveness of our companies and create high-value jobs for Nova Scotians in the agriculture sector.
• We relocated good government jobs to Shelburne, Digby, Truro, Windsor and New Waterford to make sure more towns get their fair share of government jobs.
• The NDP invested $8 million to ensure that every pre-school aged child with autism gets the help they need – help that was previously only available to half of them.
• The NDP put what matters most first by increasing reading assistance to students, extending high school math to both semesters, and directing money from central offices to the classroom.
• The NDP’s Primary- Grade 3 class-size cap of 25 meant hiring more than 70 teachers in 2013.
• Schools Plus – giving kids and their families a better chance to succeed in more than 100 communities so far.
• The NDP created 250 new community college seats targeted to high-demand trades and professions.
• The NDP fixed Canada’s weakest student assistance program by limiting tuition increases, investing in needs-based bursaries, capping student debt and encouraging institutions to be more innovative.
• The NDP opened nearly one thousand new long-term care beds since 2009.
• The NDP ensured that nearly 18,000 low-income seniors who receive Guaranteed Income Supplement pay no provincial income tax. In 2013 even more low-income seniors paid no provincial income tax.
• The NDP expanded the Caregiver Benefit, restorative care and self-managed programs to allow seniors to manage their own care and stay in their homes and communities longer.
• The NDP increased the Property Tax Rebate for seniors by $200 to a maximum of $800. Seniors receiving the GIS may qualify for a rebate on their municipal property taxes.
• The NDP ended the injustice of having seniors pay security deposits for long term care.
• The NDP enacted Canada’s first Cyber-Safety law to help people deal with bullying.
• The NDP created a Domestic Violence Action Plan to keep our communities safer. New legislation will allow renters experiencing domestic violence to break their lease without financial penalty.
• The NDP’s immigration strategy, Welcome Home to Nova Scotia, helped us nominate the highest number of immigrants to date.
• We worked with the Mi’kmaq to increase their involvement in economic development and training initiatives.
• We affirmed equality by adding gender identity and gender expression to the Human Rights Act.
• The NDP’s $500,000 gave Transition Houses and Women’s Centres the first core funding boost in over a decade.
• The NDP increased our renewable energy goal for electricity to 40% by 2020 and are securing our energy future with stable energy prices from the Muskrat Falls hydro project.
• The NDP extended the moratorium on gas and oil drilling on Georges Bank indefinitely.
• The NDP helped to build the future of forestry with the creation of community forests and enhancing parks as we move toward our goal of protecting 13% of our province’s land, exceeding the United Nations goal of 12% land protection.
• The NDP invested more in local food campaigns, farmers’ markets and help for new farmers, helping to ensure that Nova Scotia was the only province to see an increase in the number of farms since 2009. We legislated a 20% goal for locally produced food bought by Nova Scotians by 2020.
• We put North America’s first hard caps on green house gas emissions for electricity. That initiative was recognized by The David Suzuki Foundation as one of the top 5 best moves on climate change.
• While Stephen McNeil called it “a bad, bad piece of public policy” and voted against the measure, we took the provincial tax off power bills and home heating. In fact, the Liberals voted 8 times to tax home heating and energy.
• The NDP covered the cost of insulin pumps and supplies for eligible youth to age 18 and supplies for people 19 to 25 with type 1 diabetes, who use an insulin pump.
• The NDP increased the Nova Scotia Child Benefit by 40%.
• The NDP introduced and indexed the Affordable Living Credit to provide financial support to 240,000 households who earn less than $30,000.
• The NDP also introduced and indexed the Poverty Reduction Tax Credit to support about 15,000 of the most vulnerable low income Nova Scotians, many of whom have disabilities.
• Over a thousand more children a year have places in daycares and pre-schools around the province, making childcare more affordable for Nova Scotian families.
• The NDP took the HST off more family essentials including children’s clothing, footwear, and diapers.
• The NDP created Nova Scotia’s first Affordable Housing Strategy, with model projects already starting.
• The NDP increased income assistance personal allowances enabling approximately 31,000 adults to better provide for themselves and their families.
• The NDP’s new consumer protection cell phone legislation capped cancellation fees and ensured Nova Scotians are told about any changes that may increase their bills.

https://nsndp.ca/accomplishments

Yes, they did nothing except raise the HST and sat on their hands.  Never mind that hospital emergency room closures and wait times went down every single year.  Who cares if the poverty level went down.  Who cares that people could find a family doctor but now 100,000 people are without one and the wait time for one can be almost two years.  Who cares that we finally had an affordable housing strategy.  Who cares that we finally had our first mental healthcare strategy.  Who cares we established Collaborative Emergency Centres that the Liberals stopped then announced 70 new ones during this election?  Or expanding dental care coverage to kids that the Liberals cut.  List goes on and on.

I know it's terrible that Dexter didn't wave a magic wand and create Utopia in four years.  Shameful.  Just shameful.

For the record, that list is from the Burrill NDP website.

Seems the voters today will make that clear.  The Burrill NDP did not resonate like those on the far left said it would.

Feel The Burrill!