Liberal MP defection pool

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Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture
Liberal MP defection pool

The Cons are feeding the media with rumours that as many as three Liberal MPs are preparing to cross the floor.

The only name mentioned in media accounts is that of Ruby Dhalla, who of course denies that she is in talks.

Any other suggestions of MPs to watch?

Criteria might include

- right wing views or no firm views on anything (a fairly large group)

- not going anywhere in the Liberal Party (another fairly large group)

- able to (or at least think they are able to) win their seat again as a Conservative

- looking for a Senate appointment or other non-working position

Let the speculating begin.

 

 

remind remind's picture

Stockholm suggested Keith Martin.

Adma suggested McTeague.

Perhaps Ujal?

remind remind's picture

Awww, unionist that is just baiting. ;)

 

Caissa

ROFTL, Unionist.

Unionist

Pat Martin?

Peter Stoffer?

Unionist

Why is it baiting? I had heard both of those Liberal MPs might defect to the NDP.

 

remind remind's picture

Ya, I read that this am too.

Perhaps Coderre is going to walk?

martin dufresne

Where?

martin dufresne

Look at the Grit female MPs after this editorial by Michael Valpy in today's G&M:

Women and Ignatieff: Where did it go wrong?

The Liberal Leader's appeal was taken for granted when he entered politics. But now his party is struggling to reconnect with women who say they find him stuffy, inauthentic and untrustworthy(...)

 

Unionist

Walk around the Bloc?

KenS

Sorry to be a spoil sport.

But I bet there is nothing to this other than Conservatives keeping the negative news pot boiling under the Libs.

 

Stockholm

another consideration is who do the Tories actually want from the Liberals. i don't think they would touch Ruby Dhalla or Denis Coderre with a ten foot pole!

Maybe they could get someone from Newfoundland where the Tories currently have no representation and that person could be an instant cabinet minister?

I don't see any Liberals from Quebec switching and they have almost no one in the west left to switch except maybe the good DOCTOR PROFESSOR. That just leaves a few people in the fringe of the GTA with marginal seats. Someone look up who that would apply to.

remind remind's picture

Perhaps st8 to the Cons, who will make him their QC leader?

Now that he is out of that job. :D

 

Uncle John

How many MPs who cross the floor get re-elected?

Seems to me like people really don't like that. "I elected you as a X. My Party Affiliation was more important than my Candidate [The real political dynamic underlying political reaction to floor-crossers]. How dare you cross the floor to the Ys."

Garth Turner seemed to be an exception to the rule, mainly because he overcomes the party affiliation hurdle. For whatever reason constituents see Garth's candidacy as more important than the parties. I guess one could say the same for Scotty Brison. However these are both cases where the candidate crossed the floor to the Liberals.

The Liberals will run a candidate against any floor crosser. Best that they resign as MP, seek the Tory nomination, and run again in a by-election or wait for the general election which will come soon enough.

I don't think the people are expecting anything less these days.

remind remind's picture

Okay are we going to put money up?

I say Coderre, is a walker. ;)

 

Ghislaine

I don't think anyone would take Coderre. He also seems pretty keen on replacing Iggy asap.

I also think Dhalla would be unwanted - perhaps the Greens would take her?

Keith Martin and Irwin Cotler are two I always thought were possibilities.

KeyStone

My money is on Scott Brison.

He was always a better fit with the Conservatives anyway.
Picking him up would signal that the Conservative war on gays is over, and make a real appeal for gay Conservatives.

They would probably have to give him a cabinet position to make it happen though.

SCB4

I'm guessing 3 Ontario MPs from suburban seats looking to escape the wipeout of Ont. Libs foretold by the latest AR and Strategic Counsel polls

Stockholm

Uncle John wrote:

How many MPs who cross the floor get re-elected?

Garth Turner seemed to be an exception to the rule, mainly because he overcomes the party affiliation hurdle. For whatever reason constituents see Garth's candidacy as more important than the parties. I guess one could say the same for Scotty Brison. However these are both cases where the candidate crossed the floor to the Liberals.

 

FYI, Garth Turner was defeated after he switched to the Liberals! and Wajid Khan was defeated after he switched to the Tories. The only case i can think of where someone switched and then won was Belinda Stronach. Emerson quit rather than face certain defeat.

Uncle John

Garth was defeated? My bad ;)

Sometimes it's hard to keep track of all the Commons-critters!

SCB4

Or Bob Rae could decamp to the Conservatives, thereby achieving the even rarer 3 party 'hat trick'.

 

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

I believe that move is called "the Churchill".

remind remind's picture

What about Tonks?

Paul Gross

Keith Martin and Scott Brison both won re-election after crossing over the Libs. One could argue in the case of Brison that the Liberals were closer to his PC roots than the new Conservative party which makes it odd that Brison supported the merger of the parties. With Martin, it' is even odder that he felt at home in both the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties but not in the merged, more moderate, Conservative Party.

Both of these characters ran for leadership of their old parties (and Brison also ran to be Liberal leader). Now they are both on the rumoured list to perform the rare "double-rat" and desert the sinking Liberal ship for the Conservatives.

Paul Gross

Tonks would be a great choice -- for the NDP!  It would be Vancouver Kingsway redux! It would be almost impossible for Tonks (or anyone) to win York South Weston as a Con, so Tonks would probably want a Senate seat or some big fat goodie after he loses or abandons his seat a few months from now.

Unionist

Stockholm wrote:

FYI, Garth Turner was defeated after he switched to the Liberals! and Wajid Khan was defeated after he switched to the Tories. The only case i can think of where someone switched and then won was Belinda Stronach. Emerson quit rather than face certain defeat.

What about a Liberal cabinet minister who jumped to the NDP and was elected and then re-elected? Don't forget him!

(Ok, he also crossed from Québec to Ottawa.)

 

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

I know you're just making (more) mischief, but there is no comparison.

Mulcair was elected to the House of Commons as a New Democrat and remains a New Democrat. There is no provincial NDP in Quebec.

Stockholm

I think we are talking about people who literally cross the floor of parliament in that they were elected for one party and crossed over and ran for another. I don't count situations like Mulcair going from the Quebec Liberals to the NDP nor do I count Rae or Dosanjh who ran federally as Liberals AFTER having switched parties.

remind remind's picture

Volpe?

 

Sean in Ottawa

I find this hard to believe-- sounds like Con BS to me.

When they actually have a Liberal fish on the line do you think they will say anything public before its on the bottom of the boat? Give the chance for the leader to run around and figure out who they are and talk to them? Sounds like mischief. Just more chatter to destabilize the leader.

As for PCs -- their party left them so I would not put them in the same category as people like Emerson.

I am very concerned about the anti-democratic dirty tricks coming from the Cons-- this is adding up. the fact that the media and the public doesn't see this as a disturbing trend makes it much worse.

SCB4

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I find this hard to believe-- sounds like Con BS to me.

When they actually have a Liberal fish on the line do you think they will say anything public before its on the bottom of the boat? Give the chance for the leader to run around and figure out who they are and talk to them? Sounds like mischief. Just more chatter to destabilize the leader.

As for PCs -- their party left them so I would not put them in the same category as people like Emerson.

I am very concerned about the anti-democratic dirty tricks coming from the Cons-- this is adding up. the fact that the media and the public doesn't see this as a disturbing trend makes it much worse.

I think there may be something to it. There's a tendency for Lib MPs to get nervous when their leader appears to be imploding.

Odd that the Toronto Star broke the story though. Haven't seen any verification in the other print media yet.

 

remind remind's picture

Yes, there is also the recent Raitt fund raising dirty tricks with the TO Port authority that is being investigated.

janfromthebruce

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

sounds like Con BS to me.

When they actually have a Liberal fish on the line do you think they will say anything public before its on the bottom of the boat?

my giggle for today - so another "fish story"?

Lord Palmerston

Maurizio Bevilacqua

Snert Snert's picture

On TAT, I read this as "Liberal defecation pool" and really just clicked to see if anyone else had.  Carry on.

Unionist

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

I know you're just making (more) mischief, but there is no comparison.

Please comment on my posts, not on me. Thanks.

Quote:
Mulcair was elected to the House of Commons as a New Democrat and remains a New Democrat. There is no provincial NDP in Quebec.

I understand that. I don't think we should underestimate the importance of Layton recruiting Mulcair. It's refreshing to have someone who chose the party rather than being born into it.

 

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Here's my own list, by category:

Likely targets and/or possibly open to an approach (31)

Larry Bagnell (Yukon) 
Keith Martin (Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca)
Sukh Dhaliwal (Newton--North Delta)
Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra)
John Cannis (Scarborough Centre)
Albina Guarnieri (Mississauga East--Cooksville)
Gurbax Singh Malhi (Bramalea--Gore--Malton)
John McKay (Scarborough--Guildwood)
Dan McTeague (Pickering--Scarborough East)
Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Joe Volpe (Eglinton--Lawrence)
Bryon Wilfert (Richmond Hill)
Alan Tonks (York South--Weston)
Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Etobicoke Centre)
Navdeep Bains (Mississauga--Brampton South)
Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan)
Anthony Rota (Nipissing--Timiskaming)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Bernard Patry (Pierrefonds--Dollard)
Marc Garneau (Westmount--Ville-Marie)
Jean-Claude D'Amours (Madawaska--Restigouche)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)
Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton--Canso)
Mark Eyking (Sydney--Victoria)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan)
Shawn Murphy (Charlottetown)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Scott Andrews (Avalon)
Todd Russell (Labrador)
Scott Simms (Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor)

Unlikely to be approached or to say yes if they were approached (24)

Anita Neville (Winnipeg South Centre)
Mauril Bélanger (Ottawa--Vanier)
Jim Karygiannis (Scarborough--Agincourt)
Derek Lee Scarborough--Rouge River
Michelle Simson (Scarborough Southwest)
John McCallum (Markham--Unionville)
Mark Holland (Ajax--Pickering)
Ruby Dhalla (Brampton--Springdale)
Yasmin Ratansi (Don Valley East)
Bonnie Crombie (Mississauga--Streetsville)
Frank Valeriote (Guelph)
Kirsty Duncan (Etobicoke North)
Rob Oliphant (Don Valley West)
Raymonde Folco (Laval--Les Îles)
Marcel Proulx (Hull--Aylmer)
Irwin Cotler (Mount Royal)
Massimo Pacetti (Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel)
Pablo Rodriguez (Honoré-Mercier)
Francis Scarpaleggia (Lac-Saint-Louis)
Lise Zarac (LaSalle--Émard)
Alexandra Mendès (Brossard--La Prairie)
Scott Brison (Kings--Hants)
Siobhan Coady (St. John's South--Mount Pearl)
Judy Foote (Random--Burin--St. George's)

No way (23)

Hedy Fry (Vancouver Centre)
Ujjal Dosanjh (Vancouver South)
Ralph Goodale (Wascana)
Peter Milliken (Kingston and the Islands)
Maria Minna (Beaches--East York)
Carolyn Bennett (St. Paul's)
Judy Sgro (York West)
Mario Silva (Davenport)
Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale)
David McGuinty (Ottawa South)
Ken Dryden (York Centre)
Glen Pearson (London North Centre)
Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke--Lakeshore)
Bob Rae (Toronto Centre)
Gerard Kennedy (Parkdale--High Park)
Denis Coderre (Bourassa)
Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville)
Marlene Jennings (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine)
Justin Trudeau (Papineau)
Dominic Leblanc (Beauséjour)
Wayne Easter (Malpeque)
Geoff Regan (Halifax West)
Michael Savage (Dartmouth--Cole Harbour)

remind remind's picture

Is that not a bit of a bit of an overstatement, unionist?

As for it to be a valid contention, one would have to indicate that Mulcair was one of the only NDP MP's, not born into the party.  And that is hardly the case.

 

Unionist

remind wrote:

Is that not a bit of a bit of an overstatement, unionist?

As for it to be a valid contention, one would have to indicate that Mulcair was one of the only NDP MP's, not born into the party.  And that is hardly the case.

 

Yes, remind, it was an overstatement, but I did it to make a point. Mulcair was a highly respected Liberal politician - a minister in cabinet - very popular. In a cabinet shuffle, Charest removed his sustainable development portfolio and offered him the ministry of intergovernmental affairs instead - not a paltry job in Québec, as you can imagine when thinking of relations with Ottawa. Mulcair refused, because of his fundamental disagreement on how Charest was dealing with the environment. He took a break to reflect on other issues as well, and then accepted Layton's invitation to take on a new role.

What I meant was this: Whatever one thinks of Mulcair (and there's much in his views that I disagreed with then and now), his was a courageous and principled choice. He went from a position of power and influence to join a federal party that had never elected anyone in a general election in Québec. I credit Jack Layton with winning him to this bold stand, and I admire them both for it.

Let me sum it up. Tom Mulcair is not a "my party, right or wrong, and when I join my next party, it will be that party, right or wrong" type of person. He makes choices based on his principles and conscience. The NDP would do well to find more like him. They could even consider a two-for-one trade for a few that are disgracing their caucus right now.

 

remind remind's picture

Thank you for clarifying that.

However, I have to disagree with your contention that the caucus is not predominently principled and following their conscience, as according to your own contentions, Mulcair would not put up with it, if they were not, and would walk

 

bekayne

Paul Gross wrote:

Keith Martin and Scott Brison both won re-election after crossing over the Libs. One could argue in the case of Brison that the Liberals were closer to his PC roots than the new Conservative party which makes it odd that Brison supported the merger of the parties. With Martin, it' is even odder that he felt at home in both the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties but not in the merged, more moderate, Conservative Party.

Both of these characters ran for leadership of their old parties (and Brison also ran to be Liberal leader). Now they are both on the rumoured list to perform the rare "double-rat" and desert the sinking Liberal ship for the Conservatives.

No and no. Remeber the last time Martin sat as an independant & didn't join the Liberal caucus until he was elected as one. With Brison, there's too much bad blood between him & Peter McKay.

ottawaobserver

Scott,

I agree with your "Unlikely to be approached or to say yes if they were approached" list and your "No way" list.

Here's who I think is most likely out of the rest:

John McKay (Scarborough--Guildwood)
John Cannis (Scarborough Centre)
Gurbax Singh Malhi (Bramalea--Gore--Malton)
Alan Tonks (York South--Weston)

The rest are just too steeped in the party to want to leave, and most would properly belong in either of the above two lists in my opinion.

As for Keith Martin, you might think he fits them philosophically (except on marijuana, aid to Africa, and a few other issues), but I think it's just too hard to cross twice.  McTeague is anti-choice, but he's in the mainstream of that party.

Prophit

I would put both Joyce Murray and Marc Garneau in the "no way" category.

Farmpunk

I'd take odds on Pearson.

Given the political unrest in the recent past, I'd suggest that right now would be the best time for floorcrossers.  Easier to justify when the overall scene is so muddled. 

"Around the Bloc" Unionist.

That's a sweet line, dude.

ottawaobserver

It's interesting to note that there is an almost identical thread going on over at the Blogging Tories board.  I haven't read through the whole thing yet, but stopped to chuckle at the comment that says they wouldn't want Ruby Dhalla, but were sure we'd take her in a second (not bloody likely).

Also interesting is that they wouldn't mind Paul Szabo or Dan McTeague, and would take Keith Martin back.  In fact they quite like Szabo, which is interesting given his role in chairing the Mulroney committee.  I think I read that he was a go for a fall election, but would reconsider his future in terms of running again if the election were put off longer than that.

flight from kamakura

i'd say we could cut it to:

Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

ottawaobserver wrote:
It's interesting to note that there is an almost identical thread going on over at the Blogging Tories board.  I haven't read through the whole thing yet, but stopped to chuckle at the comment that says they wouldn't want Ruby Dhalla, but were sure we'd take her in a second (not bloody likely).

I liked the post that speculated that The Star (which, in their unique lingo, is known as "Pravda") published the article in order to make the Conservatives "seem more sinister".

 

janfromthebruce

Pravda, changed their online look, and now it's looks like a online tabloid, along with it's pravda personality.

ottawaobserver

flight from kamakura wrote:

i'd say we could cut it to:

Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)

The two New Brunswick MPs (Murphy and D'Amours) are possibilities.

Not Kania though: big Liberal party insider.  I'd highly doubt him.

Daniel Grice

I doubt we would see three floor crossers.  

However, if there is any west of Ontario, the only one I could possibly see crossing is Sukh Dhaliwal as his riding is easily within striking distance for the Conservatives. (He's surrounded by three tories, and is a conservative Liberal to begin with.)

If there is any in Ontario, I would look at the suburbs.

adma

Yeah, just to be a wise guy, I'll guess that the three most likely floor crossers are Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, and Justin Trudeau

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