NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh Continues To Capitalize On Party’s Momentum During Last Week Of The Campaign

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NorthReport
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh Continues To Capitalize On Party’s Momentum During Last Week Of The Campaign

COMMENTARY: Singh scores win with ‘sentiment’ jump on Twitter during debate, Ipsos says

Only Singh ended the night in net-positive territory. Although he was only third in terms of total volume, he started the night with a sentiment rating of 62 and increased it to 68 by the end of the night, staying consistently high during the debate and topping out at 70 at one point.

By contrast, Trudeau’s net sentiment dropped to 40 from 55. Scheer’s net sentiment also dropped, starting at 48 and falling to 42. Singh was the clear winner in terms of Twitter users improving their view of him as the debate went on.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6004754/leaders-debate-twitter-sentiment/

NorthReport

Have the 'courage' to vote for who you want, says Singh to potential strategic voters

 

https://election.ctvnews.ca/have-the-courage-to-vote-for-who-you-want-says-singh-to-potential-strategic-voters-1.4629605

NorthReport

“Jagmeet Singh Was the Big Winner” and Other Things People are Saying About Jagmeet’s Debate Performance

“In the winner category, you can put a check mark next to NDP leader Jagmeet Singh's name... He's risen to the occasion many times over the course of this campaign and I think that he did so again tonight.” -- Vassy Kapelos, CBC News

“Jagmeet had some of the best lines of the night. He had the lines that are going to play with the average Canadians. They were short, they were snappy, they speak to Canadians.” -- Mercedes Stephenson, Global News 

"The most interesting person tonight was Mr. Singh. Of the leaders tonight he was the most comfortable on stage. If Twitter traffic matters, he dominated the night. Both in volume and positive coverage it was about Jagmeet Singh.” -- Darrell Bricker, IPSOS

“Jagmeet Singh was pretty strong, hopeful, positive” -- Michel Boyer, CTV News 

“Jagmeet Singh was the big winner, acting the most Prime Ministerial.” -- André Picard, Globe and Mail

“1st Quarter of this debate goes too.... Jagmeet Singh. He's comfortable, speaking naturally and eloquently. He's got nothing to lose and it shows. He's doing well.” -- Mark Towhey, Sun News 

“Singh is strong tonight. He’s picking up steam on the hustings. Natural campaigner. Tonight’s zinger: Canadians don’t have to choose between Mr. Delay (Trudeau) and Me Deny (Scheer) on climate change action.” -- Mercedes Stephenson, Global News

“Singh lands a blow with the government's challenge to a compensation order for First Nations kids in care. He's heads and tails above the others on this file.” -- Robyn Urback, CBC News

“So far, Singh doing best tonight, I think. Exceeding expectations, seems at ease, repeatedly suggesting Trudeau too soft on rich and powerful.” -- Stephen Maher, Maclean’s  

"Singh was really strong on this. Won that round, hands down.” -- Glen McGregor, CTV 

“Jagmeet Singh sounds comfortable and conversational in debate section... Not really debating (which is good) speaking to the TV audience." -- Mark Towhey, Sun News 

“And Singh, right off the bat, makes the best first impression. That’s my 2c.” -- David Akin, Global News 

“Singh’s pretty darn good at this.” -- David Akin, Global News 

“Jagmeet Singh is looking calm on this issue of Bill 21, and has moral authority. It’s likely a very strong moment for him in this debate.” -- Evan Solomon, CTV News 

“This is my first extended exposure to Jagmeet Singh. He is the only one on this stage I can relate to at all. I’m impressed.” -- Damien Cox, Toronto Star

“I may disagree with most of what Jagmeet Singh has to say - but he’s coming out swinging and so far dominating this debate. -- Tasha Kheiriddin, Commentator 

“This Q from Singh is tailor-made for one of the core NDP messages through the whole campaign: that Libs and Tories are two different shades of the same thing." -- Shannon Proudfoot, Maclean’s 

“Singh talking about climate change goes right to forest fires and floods...done a decent job of talking to regular folks.” -- Josh Visser, VICE Canada

“Jagmeet Singh is crushing this debate.” -- Lauren O'Neil, BlogTO

“Singh got off a good line to Bernier: ‘You could have just said, hey man, I messed up.’ Point Singh.” -- Keith Baldrey, Global News 

“Singh jumps in and points out that Trudeau and Scheer are fighting about ‘who is worse for Canada.’ Singh uses this to pivot to his platforms and how universal pharmacare and dental care will save families money.” -- Annie Bergeron Oliver, CTV News

“Singh takes the Q. He says divisions are growing because of ‘hateful discourse.’ He says people's worries are being exploited, and these worries are because of government neglect of housing, health care, jobs.” -- Alex Ballingall, Toronto Star 

“Best line of the night so far goes to Jagmeet Singh: '(Trudeau and Scheer) are arguing over who's worse for Canada...we should be debating what's best for Canada.” -- James Cybulski, SN650 Vancouver 

“Singh: "Mr. Scheer and Mr. Trudeau are arguing over who will be worse for Canada." Captures the feeling I had there pretty well.” -- Josh Tabish, CIRA News

“Singh says JT and AS are talking about who’d be worst for Canada. We ought to focus on who’s better. Singh is having a great night. Clear. Values talk. Broad at times, specific at others. A real human. Sweet suit. On message.” -- David Moscrop, Washington Post
 
"I want to get back to Jagmeet Singh for a moment. To me, he seemed to be the most in control of himself and what was going on.” -- Mirella Fernandez, CTV News 

“Many agree that Jagmeet Singh performed very well in the face of the revelations of Justin Trudeau's blackface. He has been quite strong in the first debate for instance, and he has performed well.” -- Adrienne Batra, Toronto Sun 

“I think that the people feeling the best tonight are the New Democrats. They feel that Jagmeet Singh has had his best week this week, since becoming leader.” -- David Cochrane, CBC News  

“Singh is having a helluva night.” -- David Akin, Global News
 

NorthReport

And right on cue the Liberal fear tactics begin

As well as the CBC's undecided cough, cough, panel 

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2019/10/08/jagmeet-singhs-strong-showing-could-make-andrew-scheer-the-prime-minister.html

robbie_dee

Thomas Walkom is not wrong. Notwithstanding Jagmeet's unquestioningly superb campaign it is unlikely the NDP will surge from its current polling position at around 15% of the vote to contending for government. Moreover, it is clear that the NDP and Liberals disproportionately fish from the same pool of voters. As a result, an improved NDP electoral performance is likely to create vote splits in many ridings that help the Conservative candidate.

That being said, Scheer's conservatives face the same problem on the right from the People's Party. Max Bernier probably "won" the debate just by being there, although I would be concerned if I were him that many of the people watching who would otherwise be most sympathetic to his cause may have been put off by his French accent. If the forthcoming election result is a minority parliament Jagmeet could find himself to be a powerful kingmaker and his performance to date has certainly improved his prospects in that regard.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Have the 'courage' to vote for who you want, says Singh to potential strategic voters

 

https://election.ctvnews.ca/have-the-courage-to-vote-for-who-you-want-says-singh-to-potential-strategic-voters-1.4629605

But strategic voting was fine in 2015 when the NDP was in 2nd place. "If you want to stop Harper, the NDP's in the best position to do so."

NorthReport

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks during the Federal leaders debate in Gatineau, Quebec on Monday, Oct....

ASSOCIATED PRESS

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks during the Federal leaders debate in Gatineau, Quebec on Monday, Oct. 7, 2019. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP)

Cameron Holmstrom: The NDP need to answer, ‘How will you pay for it all?’

For the NDP at the federal level, one of the biggest bugaboos they have had to defend themselves against is critiques of the fiscal reality of their promises.

Despite the fact that NDP provincial governments have been proved to have the best fiscal management record in the country, federally the party has had this hanging over its head. Part of that is a function of never having formed a federal
government.

So for any NDP platform that is released, answering the “How will you pay for it?” question is paramount. This becomes especially true in 2019, when the NDP has put forward some very progressive and very ambitious platform proposals, including national pharmacare and dental care programs.

In campaigns over the past two decades, platforms that promised big spending were not the easiest to get the electorate to accept, but the 2015 election seems to have changed that narrative. That has helped the NDP to be bold and progressive in this campaign, but that big question still remains.

 

The other big part of the challenge for the NDP is to convince voters the value in making such big investments and committing those kinds of funds towards them.

 

The party has addressed part of this so far by pointing to specific new revenue proposals, like a super-wealth tax on those making more than $20 million a year. But the other big part of the challenge for the NDP is to convince voters the value in making such big investments and committing those kinds of funds
towards them.

In past campaigns, this would have been harder, but thanks to commitments from the Liberals and Conservatives in this campaign, the NDP can paint these proposals not as big spending items, but different choices to be made when compared to the other parties.

That is a much easier argument to make and we’ll see if it’s one the voting public is ready to embrace.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/leaders-debate-criticism-canada_ca_5d9cb26ce4b02c9da03f7f80

NorthReport

Singh urges young people to 'dream big' as he slams Trudeau for failing them

 

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/ndp-promises-to-remove-interest-on-federal-student-loans

NorthReport

Canadians Are Planning To Vote For Jagmeet Singh After Drake Follows Him On Instagram

 

https://www.narcity.com/gossip/ca/drake-followed-jagmeet-singh-on-instagram-right-after-his-ex-rihanna

NorthReport

I liked that voter subsidy that Chretien brought in but that Harper eliminated which reduced strategic voting I think.

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Have the 'courage' to vote for who you want, says Singh to potential strategic voters

 

https://election.ctvnews.ca/have-the-courage-to-vote-for-who-you-want-says-singh-to-potential-strategic-voters-1.4629605

But strategic voting was fine in 2015 when the NDP was in 2nd place. "If you want to stop Harper, the NDP's in the best position to do so."

Sean in Ottawa

robbie_dee wrote:

Thomas Walkom is not wrong. Notwithstanding Jagmeet's unquestioningly superb campaign it is unlikely the NDP will surge from its current polling position at around 15% of the vote to contending for government. Moreover, it is clear that the NDP and Liberals disproportionately fish from the same pool of voters. As a result, an improved NDP electoral performance is likely to create vote splits in many ridings that help the Conservative candidate.

That being said, Scheer's conservatives face the same problem on the right from the People's Party. Max Bernier probably "won" the debate just by being there, although I would be concerned if I were him that many of the people watching who would otherwise be most sympathetic to his cause may have been put off by his French accent. If the forthcoming election result is a minority parliament Jagmeet could find himself to be a powerful kingmaker and his performance to date has certainly improved his prospects in that regard.

There is a significant flaw in this argument.

It is true that Liberals and NDP are often second choice among those decided to vote for one or another. Most people with a position on the left-right spectrum have made up their minds or are quite aware of the issues of swing ridings and strategic voting.

Many of the people who are left are not on the left-right spectrum and are deciding, some of them, to vote agaisnt this government and may chooce between Conservatives and NDP.

Another issue is that there are ridings that are NDP-Conservative fights that may go NDP.

Also the Conservatives are not increasing as a result of this and in the low position they are, they cannot govern with a minority when the balance of power is parties like the NDP or Greens.

In some cases recovery of the NDP in Quebec could keep seats out of the hands of the BQ which could support the Conservatives on social / immigration issues.

This shakes up the election but the results are not as predictable as Liberals and the political pundets who are in their corner suggest.

NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh won the debate, but the format was the big loser

 

Please chip in to support rabble's election 2019 coverage. Support rabble.ca today for as little as $1 per month!

 

Karl Nerenberg

October 8, 2019

ANALYSIS

ELECTIONS

POLITICS IN CANADA

 Jagmeet Singh/Twitter

The media were quick to crown NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh the winner of Monday's English language leaders' debate, and voters seem to agree. As one still-undecided voter in Montreal's Outremont riding wrote to this writer: 

"I thought Singh was terrific, the only one (except a bit for May) who rose above the screaming match. He's an excellent role model for what politics could/should be like. The more people see of him, the more they like him …"

Singh sought to establish contrasts with other leaders on the basis of policy differences, and, in the case of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, inconsistencies between promises and performance. He relied on charm, warmth and humour, not anger, and never stooped to personal attacks. 

Bomb the bridge

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer took the polar opposite approach to Singh's. He borrowed a leaf from previous Conservative campaigns and adopted a negative, bomb-the-bridge approach. 

Scheer went harshly negative from the very first moment of the debate. He, like all the leaders, was asked to address a voter's question about the role of leadership in a divided world, what with Brexit and our troubles with China. But instead of answering the question, the Conservative leader launched into an entirely uncivil and personal attack on Trudeau, calling him a fraud and a phony. The Conservative backroom has obviously decided that their best chance of winning is to go full-bore negative. 

"Bomb the bridge" was the term former Conservative strategist Allan Gregg employed to describe the tactic the Brian Mulroney Conservatives successfully used way back in 1988. 

That was the year of the free trade election. The Conservatives were in the process of negotiating a massive agreement with the U.S. that, over time, morphed into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its most recent iteration, NAFTA 2.0 or, if you will, the USMCA.

The Liberal leader at the time, John Turner, had gained considerable traction by painting himself as Captain Canada. Liberal television ads featured an eraser wiping away the border with the U.S. 

The Conservatives decided the only way to counter the Liberal upsurge was, in Gregg's words, to bomb the bridge of trust between Turner and the people. They went fiercely negative and it worked. Brian Mulroney managed to secure a second, if reduced, minority. 

On Monday evening, Scheer was not looking to score debating points on policy, or even on the government's record. 

The current Conservative leader did not seem to care how unsympathetic he might appear during the event itself. His only aim was to generate quotable moments that could then be reproduced by social media. If, in the days to come, there are lots of Twitter and Facebook postings of Scheer calling Trudeau a "phony and a fraud" his tactic will have worked.

Trudeau was not shaken by Scheer's approach. 

He held his own, maintained his cool, and successfully managed to tie the federal Conservative leader to the climate-change-who-cares axis of Conservative premiers Jason Kenney and Doug Ford. 

Scheer tried to use the presence of far-right, openly climate-change-denying Peoples' Party leader Maxime Bernier as a foil, to show how reasonable and moderate he is by contrast. Trudeau resisted that gambit.  He wanted viewers to notice how similar Scheer is, in reality, to Bernier. Far-right leader Bernier, Trudeau explained to voters, says openly what Scheer really believes.

Singh hammered on a progressive version of populism

NDP Leader Singh has gotten a lot of credit for his one liner about not having to choose, on climate change policy, between Mr. Delay (Trudeau) and Mr. Deny (Scheer). 

The NDP leader also had a good rejoinder to Bernier when the issue was how the far-right politician justifies his many way-out-in-right-field tweets, such as one accusing Greta Thunberg of being mentally ill. Singh told Bernier "You could have just said, 'Hey man, I messed up,' because these are pretty terrible tweets." That comment typified the NDP leader's comfortable, colloquial and personable manner throughout the two hours.

On substance, Singh tried to carve out a message that can best be characterized as class-based (as opposed to identity-based) populism. 

When talking about the rise of race and identity-based hatred and resentment in our time the NDP leader pointed to the economic factors associated with our current form of ruthless, über-greed-based capitalism. 

Many hard-working people feel left out, insecure and frustrated, Singh said. They believe the rules of the game are rigged against them, which makes them easy prey for political opportunists who manufacture scapegoats such as immigrants and Indigenous people rather than focus on the real problem, the obscene concentration of wealth at the top. 

Over and over, Singh went back to his central talking points, which focus on the increasing rate of economic inequality. The NDP leader emphasized the need for bold social programs to counter inequality's corrosive effects.

Green Leader Elizabeth May had good moments too, and was the only leader who always seemed spontaneous and unprogrammed, never resorting to rehearsed talking points. 

Commentators gave May high marks for her interventions on climate change and a woman's right to choose. But for this writer, her best comment was a rejoinder to Scheer's repeated boast that the Conservatives would cut overseas development assistance by 25 per cent. May turned to Scheer and said "that is the worst idea the Conservatives have in a very their thin platform."

The Green leader characterized the proposed $1.5 billion cut as "short term, greedy politics." 

Jagmeet Singh talks a lot about courage, with some justification, based on his life story and bold, uncompromising policies. But when it comes to defending overseas development assistance, the NDPer has remained silent. He knows spending Canadian money in foreign countries is not a natural vote getter. On that one issue, Singh does not have as much courage as Elizabeth May. 

No way to organize an exercise in democratic discourse

The biggest loser in the debate was the format. 

The Leaders' Debates Commission could not do much about the number of leaders on stage -- although there has to be a big question mark about inviting Maxime Bernier, leader of a party that has never elected a single MP and is polling in low single digits. But the commission did not have to opt for five moderators, about three too many. 

More important, the way the debate's organizers used a handful of so-called ordinary Canadians to ask questions was a waste of time and energy. It was the worst kind of patronizing tokenism, and had nothing to do with truly engaging Canadians. 

Voters watching would have been better served if the time consumed by going to a café in Yellowknife or common room in Vancouver had been given over to substantive discussion of the issues.

What was the purpose of having questions posed both by those ordinary folks and, as well, in somewhat repetitive fashion, by the moderators -- and then, incongruously and with no context, giving leaders a chance to question each other about anything under the sun? 

All the while, the time clock was ticking, as though this were a basketball game or tennis match. 

The format seemed to have been designed by folks more interested in show business than civil, democratic discourse. Is it too late to learn some lessons before the French debate on Thursday evening?

Given the 120-minute time limit, voters would be better served by a debate that focused on no more than three main areas -- say, jobs and the economy, the environment, and social programs and immigration. They could allot about 40 minutes to each. The moderators should ask all the questions, and limit themselves to at most two per subject area.

It would also be best if the producers turned off the microphones of those not speaking and thus gave the leaders enough time to coherently explain their policies, without interruption. 

The purpose of the exercise should be to force the leaders to go beyond slogans, zingers and prepared lines. The voters have a right to hear party leaders tangibly explain, in detail, what they would do in government, if given a chance. 

Elly Alboim, who was for many years CBC television's parliamentary assignment editor and later worked as a Liberal party strategist, knows a thing or two about organizing such events. Here is what he tweeted during Monday evening's exercise in futility and frustration:

"The debate commission failed in its responsibility by turning the format over to TV producers. They traded pacing for incoherence. No one had the chance to develop a thought -- all it rewarded was one-liners. Viewers and voters had little chance to hear what they wanted to hear most: who would be best to lead the country, what their vision for the country was. This had nothing to do with voters. It was about political bile, TV product and media PR. An awesome fail. The contrast was clear in the questions the 'ordinary Canadians' asked. None had barbs or hidden agendas. They just wanted information and policy answers. They ended up being props in a TV show."

Karl Nerenberg has been a journalist and filmmaker for more than 25 years. He is rabble's politics reporter.

Image: Jagmeet Singh/Twitter

 

http://rabble.ca/news/2019/10/jagmeet-singh-won-debate-format-was-big-loser

NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh Has Finally Arrived

He may be in third, but the NDP leader is winning.

 

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/59nkd3/ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-has-finally-arrived

NorthReport

'Dream Big'

Young Voters Shouldn’t ‘Settle For Less’ By Supporting Trudeau: Singh

Jagmeet Singh Makes Pitch To Young Voters Once Charmed By Trudeau’s 'Sunny Ways'

The NDP's "new deal" for young people would scrap interest on student loans.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/jagmeet-singh-young-people_ca_5d9ce165e4b087efdba40b16

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

Something is going on in Canada's 43rd federal election.

NorthReport

Does anyone know where the thread about the Greens and the NDP merging is? Thanks.

Misfit Misfit's picture

The Greens are at 11%. Assume that the Greens merged with the NDP at 18%, then the two would be at 29%, just two points behind. 

The NDP is still polling very low. I hope to see that change over the next few weeks.

NorthReport

Fantastic!

This sounds like social democracy to moi!

NDP government would ‘immediately’ institute taxpayer-funded dental for 4 million Canadians

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/04/ndp-government-would-immediately-institute-taxpayer-funded-dental-for-4-million-canadians/

NorthReport

Leaders debate poll: Jagmeet Singh won, and not just among NDP fans

A new poll finds that among those who watched the debate, 32 per cent said the NDP leader did best—and 25 per cent of Liberal supporters said the same

by 

Oct 9, 2019

Blanchet and Singh debate a point during the federal leaders debate in Gatineau, Que. on Oct. 7, 2019 (Justin Tang/CP)

Jagmeet Singh was the clear winner of the English-language federal leaders debate on Monday in the eyes of voters, a new poll suggests—and perhaps even more significantly, Liberal partisans and unaligned voters were particularly impressed with him.

One-third of those who watched the debate (32 per cent) said the NDP leader turned in the best performance of the six leaders on stage, while 20 per cent of those who just heard about the debate concluded the same, according to the poll done by Innovative Research Group for Maclean’s.

Obviously enough, 55 per cent of those who identify as NDP supporters picked Singh as the winner, but here’s where it gets interesting: 25 per cent of Liberal supporters said the same—just nine per cent fewer than those who picked Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau as the winner—and 29 per cent of unaligned voters also awarded the trophy to Singh. In a scrum on Monday night, a reporter asked Trudeau whether he had been taking particular aim at Singh on the debate stage because his left flank is feeling vulnerable, and while he side-stepped any direct answer, the poll results suggest that could well be it.

“Singh dramatically beat expectations, with 43 per cent saying he did better than expected and just 11 per cent saying worse,” says Greg Lyle, president of Innovative.

READ MORE: Four takeaway questions from the leaders debate

That puts Singh way ahead in the over-achiever category, with Conservative leader Andrew Scheer next, with 20 per cent of people saying he exceeded expectations, while 26 per cent said he was worse than expected. Overall, 17 per cent of respondents said Scheer won the night, including a solid 52 per cent of Conservative supporters. But he was picked by only single-digit percentages of other partisans, with the exception of 12 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters.

“He was almost as popular among CPC identifiers as Singh was among NDP identifiers,” Lyle says. “But he was not as successful as Singh among supporters of other parties or among the unaligned.”

 

Trudeau finished a close third to Scheer in terms of debate performance, with 13 per cent of those who watched and 17 per cent of those who heard about it declaring him the winner, but a hefty slice of his base favoured Singh. And Trudeau was declared a debate overachiever by just 11 per cent of poll respondents, while 27 per cent said he performed worse than expected.

“Justin Trudeau did not have a good outing,” the pollster says. “The bright spot for Trudeau was essentially tying with Singh as the winner among Green and PPC voters and tying for second with Singh among Bloc supporters.”

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, was of course picked by his party’s supporters as the night’s victor, but he also left almost as many people (14 per cent) impressed as thinking he underperformed (18 per cent).

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May won the debate for just six per cent of respondents. “It was also not a great night for Elizabeth May,” Lyle says. “Although she did much better among those who saw the actual debate (nine per cent) than among those who just heard about it (two per cent).”

The leader of the new People’s Party of Canada did not make much of an impression, despite his controversial and much-coveted inclusion on the national debate stage. Just three per cent of those polled said he won the debate, and many more thought he under-performed (27 per cent) than impressed (nine per cent).

“Maxime Bernier was very much a minor figure in these results,” says Lyle. “The only silver lining for Bernier is that three per cent saying he won is three per cent more than Andrew Scheer was hoping he would he score.”

The poll results also suggest Canadians are less than obsessed with the campaign at this point. Fewer than half (44 per cent) said they had even heard about the debate, and of those who had, 58 per cent watched some portion of it.

Innovative also asked people whether they have read, seen or heard anything about each party leader recently, and if so, what sort of impression it left on them.

Despite the hoopla of news coverage and hefty party expenditures on leader tours and advertising, the highest awareness exists for Trudeau and the Liberals, at only 52 per cent, followed by Scheer and the Tories at 48 per cent and Singh and the NDP at 37 per cent.

“These are a key measure of momentum,” says Lyle. “The first thing that stands out is how disengaged Canadians are in this election.”

The second notable finding is just how handily Blanchet and Singh are outdoing the two leading parties, he adds. Among people who are tuned in, the Liberals and Conservatives each have 20 percentage points more saying they’ve been left with a bad taste in their mouth than a pleasant one. But the Bloc and NDP leaders each have 40-point net-positive impressions.

“That is huge positive momentum among those who have heard something about Blanchet and Singh,” Lyle says. “Their challenge is being heard.”

May, for her part, is faring better than the two leading parties but lags well behind the Bloc and NDP leaders, with 36 per cent saying they have a positive impression of her and 24 per cent a negative one.

As for the PPC leader, Lyle is blunt. “Bernier is in the basement,” he says. “But as with the debate numbers, 13 per cent more favourable is 13 per cent more than the Tories want to see.”

The poll results are based on a representative sample of the Canadian population, but because of the methodology, a margin of error does not apply.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/leaders-debate-poll-jagmeet-singh-won-and-not-just-among-ndp-fans/

NorthReport

Singh sets sights on union voters in Quebec in midst of rising Bloc support

https://globalnews.ca/news/6013950/bloc-quebecois-voters-singh-blanchet-ndp/

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

The Greens are at 11%. Assume that the Greens merged with the NDP at 18%, then the two would be at 29%, just two points behind. 

The NDP is still polling very low. I hope to see that change over the next few weeks.

You mean less than two weeks?

NorthReport
bekayne
NorthReport

ELECTION POLL: SINGH IMPRESSES AT DEBATE WHILE TRUDEAU AND SCHEER BREAK EVEN

 

October 10, 2019

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Following the English language network debate, we polled Canadians on their reactions. Here’s what we found:

13% WATCHED THE ENTIRE DEBATE

The vast majority (87%) didn’t watch the whole debate.  Just under half (47%) watched all (13%) of some (29%) of it.  Another 23% said they heard something about it from others, and 25% heard nothing about it.

REACTION TO THE LEADERS

In terms of the impressions left on those who watched the debate or heard about it from others, Mr. Trudeau recorded 36% positive and 37% negative opinion.  For Andrew Scheer, the results were similar with 36% positive and 38% negative.

Jagmeet Singh left positive impressions among 59% and negative impressions among 11%.

Elizabeth May left positive impressions with 39% and negative impressions with 16%.

Yves-Francois Blanchet left 21% positive and 29% negative feelings.  Maxime Bernier positively impressed 14% but alienated far more, at 42%.

Bernier turned off the most (42%) with the fewest (14%) saying he left a positive impression.

WHO DID MORE TO WIN YOUR VOTE?

Jagmeet Singh found 29% saying he did the most to win their vote followed by Justin Trudeau (23%) and Andrew Scheer (23%). Elizabeth May trailed at 7%, and the other two leaders combined for 7%.

WHO DID MORE TO TURN YOU AWAY?

Andrew Scheer did more than the others to turn people off (35%) followed by Justin Trudeau (30%), Elizabeth May (6%), Jagmeet Singh (6%). Other leaders (Blanchet/Bernier) combined for 10%.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “With five challengers, any incumbent faces headwinds in a debate of this sort and so the results for Mr. Trudeau suggest he held his ground.  For Andrew Scheer, the results were better than in his last outing, but it’s likely that his opening attack on Mr. Trudeau may have pleased his base but turned off accessible voters. For Jagmeet Singh, the debate could turn out to be a meaningful turning point for the NDP campaign, but time will tell if the impact is more on his personal reputation or on the course of the campaign overall. “

According to David Coletto: “Jagmeet Singh won the debate on Monday. Almost six in ten Canadians who watched or heard of it said he left them with a positive impression of them, 20-points more than any other leader. More important, among accessible NDP voters – those not intending to vote NDP but saying they would consider it – 32% thought he did most to earn his vote, slightly ahead of Trudeau.

It remains to be seen whether his performance will translate into more votes, but the NDP leader has some momentum now, and Canadians are increasingly warming to him.

Mr. Scheer, the debate was likely a draw in terms of its net impact. Mr. Scheer did little to impress potential Conservative supporters. Few thought he did the most to win their vote. Those already intending to vote Conservative approved of his performance and that was likely to point: motivate Conservative voters and while trying to divide more progressive voters away from the Liberals.

For Mr. Trudeau, the results suggest he largely held his own with almost all his current supporters thinking he did a good job and few potential supporters saying he did the most to turn them off. Most important, more potential Liberal supporters felt good about his performance than bad, suggesting he did what he needed to do: withstand the attacks, reassure his supporters, and contrast with Mr. Scheer among those both the Conservatives and Liberals are trying to persuade.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,347 Canadians aged 18 and over from October 8 to 10, 2019. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The sample of those who watched or heard about the English language debate is 1,535.

 

https://abacusdata.ca/english-debate-who-won-election-2019-canada-poll/

bekayne

Where does this 11% in the thread title come from?

NorthReport

bekayne

Actually you are correct, that's embarassing. My bad math - it has been corrected to read 13%

Libs - 31%

Cons - 31%

NDP - 18%

NorthReport

Now we know why CBC's Poll Tracker is biased in favour of the Liberals

Angus Reid Institute poll suggests Jagmeet Singh is most popular federal political leader

 

by Charlie Smith on October 10th, 2019 at 5:00 PM

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  • NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's personal favourability is running well above the percentage of decided and leaning voters who are prepared to support his party, according to a new poll.

  • NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's personal favourability is running well above the percentage of decided and leaning voters who are prepared to support his party, according to a new poll.

There are a couple of new hashtages showing up on Twitter this week: #SinghUpswing and #Jaggernaut.

Both reflect the rising fortunes of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who was seen by many as the winner of the English-language televised leaders debate on October 7.

The NDP is up three percent to 17 percent among decided and leaning voters in a new poll released today by the Angus Reid Institute.

Singh's personal "favourability" shot up by 18 percent over the last Angus Reid poll on October 1.

This makes Singh the most popular national political leader, followed by Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet at 52 percent and Elizabeth May of the Greens at 44 percent.

"NDP support is up significantly among women aged 18-34, but also finds a boost among men over the age of 34," the pollster states on its website. "Young people are the same cohort who turned out big for the Liberals in 2015 and propelled Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to victory, but this group traditionally votes at lower rates than the rest of the population."

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer's favourability rating is 38 percent, compared to a 58 percent unfavourable rating.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's favourable rating is only 35 percent and he has a 63 percent unfavourable rating.

The Angus Reid Institute reported that the Conservatives are still in the lead at 34 percent, but that's down three percent from October 1.

The Liberals remained steady in second place at 29 percent, down one percent. 

The Greens are up one percent from October 1 and are now at nine percent.

The CBC poll tracker, which aggregates publicly available polling data, has the Liberals in first place at 33.9 percent.

It has the Conservatives in second place at 33 percent, followed by the NDP at 14.7 percent and the Greens at 9.5 percent.

The CBC poll tracker does not include Angust Reid Institute or Mainstreet Research polls in its data collection.

 

Singh sizzles in English debate, but will NDP momentum solidify, or ultimately fizzle?

Singh sizzles in English debate, but will NDP momentum solidify, or ultimately fizzle?

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NDP makes gains in voter intention, but certainty of new supporters remains soft


October 10, 2019 – Singh’s the thing, at least for now. In a tight federal election campaign that has witnessed few breakout moments or true collapses for the parties and their leaders thus far, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s performance in Monday night’s English language leaders debate appears to be having – at minimum – a short-term beneficial impact on New Democrat fortunes.

The latest public opinion survey from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute indicates a three-point bump for the NDP to 17 per cent of leaning and decided voters – the highest the party has been since the writs were drawn. The party now puts more daylight between itself and the Greens, while narrowing what had earlier been a significant gap between itself and the incumbent Liberals.

This move to the left is defined by two factors: Singh’s personal favourability ratings, which continue to exceed that of every other party leader, and the continued, wobbly indefinite vote dynamic evident among those on the left of the political spectrum. Indeed, only one-in-three (32%) NDP supporters say they are “absolutely certain” that the party will earn their choice at the ballot box.

Related: Centre-Left Scuffle

Overall, it is the Conservative Party of Canada that continues to hold a narrow lead over the Liberal Party, 34 per cent to 29 per cent respectively. Recent days have seen declines for the CPC – down three points since last week, while the Liberals stand still – statistically unchanged over the same period of time.

More Key Findings:

  • Jagmeet Singh’s favourability has increased 20 points, from 39 per cent to 59 per cent since the campaign began. Meanwhile, CPC leader Andrew Scheer is down six points in that period to 38 per cent, and Justin Trudeau is unchanged at 35 per cent.
  • NDP support is up significantly among women aged 18-34, but also finds a boost among men over the age of 34. Young people are the same cohort who turned out big for the Liberals in 2015 and propelled Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to victory, but this group traditionally votes at lower rates than the rest of the population.
  • Among voters who have not fully committed to their first-choice party and who say that the Liberals are currently their second choice, six-in-ten (59%) say it is at least somewhat likely that they will support the Liberals.

https://www.straight.com/news/1312816/angus-reid-institute-poll-suggests-jagmeet-singh-most-popular-federal-political-leader

Pondering

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/innovative-research-poll-a-quebec-shakeup-and-shifting-battlegrounds/

Here’s the rub. With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, most Canadians have already made up their minds, according to Innovative, with 54 per cent saying they’ve heard all they need to decide who’s getting their vote.

46% undecided is huge. It could turn the entire election. The election is decided in the next 10 days. All polls are measuring is the decided vote which is a very different population than last minute swing voters. 

bekayne

Pondering wrote:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/innovative-research-poll-a-quebec-shakeup-and-shifting-battlegrounds/

Here’s the rub. With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, most Canadians have already made up their minds, according to Innovative, with 54 per cent saying they’ve heard all they need to decide who’s getting their vote.

46% undecided is huge. It could turn the entire election. The election is decided in the next 10 days. All polls are measuring is the decided vote which is a very different population than last minute swing voters. 

There's not going to be 70% voter turnout, let alone 100%

NorthReport

Extinction Rebellion, Jagmeet-style. As Singh goes up, and Trudeau goes down, Scheer jumps for joy

https://www.straight.com/news/1313121/martyn-brown-extinction-rebellion-jagmeet-style-singh-goes-trudeau-goes-down-and-scheer

NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh refused to take questions from Rebel Media reporter

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/jagmeet-singh-refuses-rebel-media-question

Misfit Misfit's picture

Winnipeg Centre on 338Canads.com has flipped Orange!!!

Sherri Benson in Saskatoon West has flipped Orange from blue!

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River in northern Saskatchewan has pulled out stronger ORANGE!!!

My own constituency has pulled the NDP up 3% in two days. My area does have an NDP history btw. Moose Jaw used to be solid NDP for years and years. It is a CP Rail town with a solid union. I know that my original rural area has voted NDP in the 1990s with a strong NDP candidate and that area is notoriously staunch conservative. The NDP doesn’t have a chance this election in my riding but I am pleased with what I have seen these last few days.

Regina Lewvan has made gains for NDP in the last few days but the NDP is still way back. Saskatoon and Regina are places to look for NDP movement this upcoming week.

Remember, we have a very deep history in this province with the NDP. But the oil industry, the pipeline, and the carbon tax are the main issues this election out here.

Nikki Ashton is kicking ass!

We are coming alive in Saskatchewan and Manitoba!

i am praying for REB in Berthier... and Alexandre Boulerice seems to be hanging in there too.

i am very happy today!

NorthReport

Happy warrior Jagmeet is holding a presser in Brampton and he is on fire. Jagmeet is another Jack Layton and the NDP could win the election.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Have a nice day everyone! I am going to drive into Moose Jaw today to vote for Jagmeet Singh. Then I intend to slip into Regina and cruise around to get a feel for what’s happing there. 

lagatta4

Misfit, who is your local NDP candidate? I voted for Alexandre Boulerice,  yesterday morning, in advance poll. We certainly aren't counting on anything. I'll probably be spending all day tomorrow at the campaign office, greeting people.

These central urban ridings are so small in area that the advance poll was less than a 10-minute walk. My regular poll is less than 5. At the Jean-Talon market, there are posters for my riding but also Papineau (Trudeau's) which starts across Jean-Talon (street).

I like Ruth-Ellen too. She has been a very good representative for the people in her riding, but in such a rural area, the Bloc remain a threat.

Misfit Misfit's picture

My local NDP candidate is Talon Regent, a young lawyer from Moose Jaw in his late twenties. He is polling at around 25% and the Conservative has 55% support.

The Conservative candidate is Tom Likiewski whose claim to fame is his infamous homophobic video from 1991 when Grant Devine went down to defeat in Saskatchewan.

Video

This video makes me very angry. It also angers me that he is well qualified for a government pension. He does not deserve to win. 

This video also had a clip from Brad Wall where he made racist remarks about Ukrainians in reference to Roy Romano, the premier of Saskatchewan at the time.

Here is Brad Wall. 

Video

bekayne

Misfit wrote:

My local NDP candidate is Talon Regent, a young lawyer from Moose Jaw in his late twenties. He is polling at around 25% and the Conservative has 55% support.

Those are projections based on national polling, not actual polls.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Yes. I am off work due to hip surgery so am not in Moose Jaw at this time. Moose Jaw has a a historical NDP base but the constituency covers a massive rural territory which is solidly blue. That is the problem.

Island Red

The NDP is kicking serious butt in St. John's East. Liberal scare tactics are on bust in attempting to stem the orange tide.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Island Red wrote:

The NDP is kicking serious butt in St. John's East. Liberal scare tactics are on bust in attempting to stem the orange tide.

heh heh heh!

NorthReport
NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh NDP Surrey Rally

Sunday, October 13 (tomorrow) 

Noon to 2 PM

Grand Taj Banquet Hall

128 Street and 84th Avenue

Surrey

NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh NDP Vancouver Rally

Saturday, October 19

12:30 PM to 2 PM

Vogue Theatre

918 Granville Street

(x street is Smythe)

Vancouver

 

 

lagatta4

Washed my hair, am combing it out with conditioner (thick curly-kinky hair) and then a shower and getting dressed better than I am now (old t-shirt, old sweatpants) to head off to Boulerice's campaign office, where I'll be at the reception. Fortunately there was a full moon (or almost) so the moonlight woke me up very early. I have to eat something and am not hungry at all... Someone will be on hand to take voters to the advance polls.

I'm happy to hear about Niki Ashton; I met her during Julia Sanchez's campaign in Outremont earlier this year, when everything was iced over to such an extent that sometimes I took the bus the short distance to the campaign office at the corner of Avenue du Parc and Bernard. Niki was very impressive; her spouse accompanies her to take care of the twins. Very impassioned about the North and Indigenous issues.

Today I'll have the pleasure of cycling early Sunday morning when the roads and cycle paths are almost empty.  The campaign office is located on a slightly dodgy patch of boulevard Rosemont, southeast of me, where there are a couple of seedy bars and also two so-called massage parlours, as well as a rooming house for formerly homeless men. Two streets north of there the area is thoroughly soft-gentrified; not wealthy executives, but young people who renovated duplexes and shop at the Rachelle-Béry natural food shop, good boulangeries and cafés. I have no idea whether Alexandre will drop by or if he is too taken up with other visits and interviews, or frankly taking the day off to be with his family.

NorthReport

What a lovely note to wake up to lagatta4 and thanks so much for your volunteer efforts

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones!

NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Glad to here Mr. Singh is doing well...but why ARE your thread titles always so repetitive and tautalogical and why do they say the same thing in at least three different ways each time, North?

NorthReport

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh attends rally, addresses media in Surrey, B.C.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azblOztSNUs

Aristotleded24

Island Red wrote:
The NDP is kicking serious butt in St. John's East. Liberal scare tactics are on bust in attempting to stem the orange tide.

I was wondering about that. Jack Harris is very popular in St. Johns and has been around NDP politics a long time. Has there been any polling of the St. John's metro area specifically?

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