NDP leadership race 4

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Hunky_Monkey

timothy wrote:

The problem is the new poll's methodology missed the vast majority of sign ups, which hugely favour singh. Most of the sign ups would not be captured as 'donors.' Also, in terms of turnout candidates with good organziations can literally pick up the ballots and deliver them to federal office so that is a huge factor that people tend to ignore.  Ashton had more sign ups than Caron (easy to do since caron had next to none) so she still can come in third, despite that establishment push to Caron. The poll was taken before the Singh video went viral, which is the only media event in the entire ndp leadership race to have any impact. But really as the poll didn't capture the new members it is very flawed. Unfortunately people misinterpret it and consider it a poll of the membership as was done with the Conservatives (who for some reason gave the pollster their membership list to poll from). 

 

Oh, no... hope R.E.Wood doesn't read this!

josh

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

timothy wrote:

The problem is the new poll's methodology missed the vast majority of sign ups, which hugely favour singh. Most of the sign ups would not be captured as 'donors.' Also, in terms of turnout candidates with good organziations can literally pick up the ballots and deliver them to federal office so that is a huge factor that people tend to ignore.  Ashton had more sign ups than Caron (easy to do since caron had next to none) so she still can come in third, despite that establishment push to Caron. The poll was taken before the Singh video went viral, which is the only media event in the entire ndp leadership race to have any impact. But really as the poll didn't capture the new members it is very flawed. Unfortunately people misinterpret it and consider it a poll of the membership as was done with the Conservatives (who for some reason gave the pollster their membership list to poll from). 

 

Oh, no... hope R.E.Wood doesn't read this!

I hope so too.  Because it's not correct.  The poll did not survey only donors.

Hunky_Monkey

It's interesting to see elements of this article on here.  Like R.E.Wood suggesting Singh doesn't have support of "real" New Democrats.  Interesting as I see many people who worked for Megan Leslie for example supporting Singh here in NS.  Are they not "real" New Democrats?  Interesting.  

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/get-real-jagmeet-singh-has-been-deali...

Hunky_Monkey

josh wrote:

One more time:

Mainstreet polled a combination of provincial party lists (provincial NDP members are automatically federal members

One more time... 

"Tom Parkin wrote:

does this reflect the current membership list?

Quito Maggi wrote:

1. It's not a simple answer. No, we do not have the current membership list, yes, we believe it is representative of current membership.

2. We added as much new data to the list as we could, 2017 donors, provincial NDP donors, the new list being dialed is just under 120,000"

mark_alfred
josh

Well, I'm just quoting the writeup of the poll.

mark_alfred

timothy wrote:

The problem is the new poll's methodology missed the vast majority of sign ups, which hugely favour singh. Most of the sign ups would not be captured as 'donors.'

timothy, why would the new sign ups not be included as donors?  If a membership is $5 (IE, the lower income membership rate in Ontario, and since "lower income" is not defined, I'm guessing most new sign ups by campaigns would have geared people to this), wouldn't this $5 be considered a donation?  And thus be counted on the donor lists that Mainstreet would have relied upon?  From the tweets I transcribed, Quito Maggi, the head of Mainstreet, indicated that his compiled list was close to 120,000 members, which closely corresponds to the number that the NDP itself put out (which was 124,000 members:  http://www.ndp.ca/tripled-membership).

Mighty Middle

My mistake

pietro_bcc

I don't get what some of you are saying if this poll drew from a list of just under 120,000 and the actual list is over 124,000 that means they are missing about 4-5 thousand members to draw from on the call lists. Which means they're missing 3-4% of NDP members on their calling lists. That is no reason to scrap the results and say they're meaningless, I mean some federal polls only call people with landlines and I guarantee that there is more than 3-4% of Canadians who don't have a landline. No poll is perfect methodologically.

The pollster even says they believe that it is representative of the membership, whereas before they were saying it wasn't.

mark_alfred

In thinking about it, I do feel that timothy's concerns about the accuracy of the Mainstreet poll may be justified.  The poll is based mostly on donor lists (as identified by the Mainstream boss himself, Quito Maggi), and yet, as far as I know, the lists only include up to the second quarter (which is up to the end of June).  So, the signups in July and up to August 17 would not be included.  However, I do think the donor lists would include low donations.  So, even though it lacks July and August (to the 17th being relevant), it does capture a lot of the changes.

Anyway, that said, it's still interesting to look at.  And I found a compilation of the results from a post on Facebook from someone who had access:

Mainstreet Poll results wrote:
Singh (27.3%), Angus (25%), Not Sure (25%), Ashton (13%), Caron (9.8%)

Decided & Leaning
-------------------------------------

Singh (34.9%), Angus (33.1%), Ashton (18.5%), Caron (13.5%)

Age
--------------

18-34: Singh (61.5%), Ashton (14.9%), Angus (13.60%), Caron (9.9%)

35-49: Singh (62.2%), Angus (14.9%), Ashton (14.3%), Caron (8.6%)

50-64: Singh (41.8%), Angus (25.6%), Ashton (19.8%), Caron (12.9%)

65+: Angus (41.9%), Singh (22.6%), Ashton (20%), Caron (15.4%)

Regional breakdowns
------------

BC: Singh (43.7%), Angus (25.8%), Ashton (16.6%), Caron (13.9%)

AB: Singh (43.4%), Angus (33.8%), Ashton (13.1%), Caron (9.8%)

SK: Angus (45.6%), Ashton (28.6%), Singh (15.3%), Caron (10.6%)

MB: Ashton (29.6%), Singh (29.1%), Angus (24.5%), Caron (16.8%)

ON: Singh (45.1%), Angus (32.5%), Ashton (11.8%), Caron (10.6%)

QC: Caron (30.6%), Ashton (26.1%), Singh (23.5%), Angus (19.5%)

Atlantic: Singh (30.3%), Angus (29.3%), Caron (21.7%), Ashton (18.7%)

Gender preferences
-----------------------

Angus: Male (31%), Female (37%)

Caron: Male (15%), Female (13%)

Singh: Male (36%), Female (30%)

Ashton: Male (18%), Female (20%)\

Second choice preferences
--------------------

Angus (25.3%), Ashton (23.3%), Caron (20.3%), Singh (10.8%)

pookie

I don't have a dog in this race, but Guy Caron impressed me in this Canadaland interview.  He seems extremely competent, reasonable and fair minded.

(His interview is about halfway through.)

http://www.canadalandshow.com/podcast/guy-caron-guaranteed-income-climat...

pietro_bcc

Thanks for posting that breakdown of the poll.

I'm shocked that (edit) Angus is most popular among those 65 and over and that Singh is so much more popular than the competition on those from 18-64 and that Angus is almost tied with Singh despite only leading in those 65 and over. That means that the vast majority of NDP members are above the age of 65.

I'm surprised that Caron isn't actually doing that well in Quebec, but not surprised that Ashton is #2 in Quebec.

Finally if Singh indeed only has 10.8% of second choice preferences, then he lost, simple as that. I knew he was last in second choice, but I'm shocked that its that bad.

Hunky_Monkey

Mighty Middle wrote:

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

But if you dabble in it for only three years then move on because you're bored, don't LIE that it was your profession and the focus of your life.  Don't try to lead people to think you actually had a career.  He didn't. 

Justin Trudeau brother Michel had just died, and after Trudeau finished the school year he devoted himself to work with the non-profit "Canadian Avalanche Association" and was involved in fundraising and raising awareness on Avalanche safety via public speaking in schools.

It wasn't that Trudeau was "bored" as you say. He wanted Michel death not to be in vain, but to raise public awareness for Avalanche Safety.

So it is quite shameful Hunky_Monkey to make a mockery out of Michel Trudeau death.

Stop being a Liberal joke.  His brother died the same year he graduated... 1998... not the year he stopped teaching.   His teaching "career" was form 1999 - 2002.  He's an entitled dilettante.   If his last name was Smith, he wouldn't be PM.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Polls are fun when you're feeling under-info-saturated, but remember that time that Donald Trump won anyway?

Debater

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Polls are fun when you're feeling under-info-saturated, but remember that time that Donald Trump won anyway?

Yes, although the pollsters were correct about Hillary Clinton winning the National vote.

They had her ahead by about 2-3 points going into Election Day, and that's what her popular vote margin ended up being.

So they were correct about the National numbers.  Where the U.S. polls fell down was in underestimating Donald Trump's strength in the Midwest.

mark_alfred

Re:  Post #1063

pietro_bcc, I think you have a typo in your post.  It's Angus, not Ashton, who is the most popular with those 65 and over.  And Singh most popular with those under 65.  This is the group that is most engaged with party politics (the over 65 group), so it's not a surprise that they form the biggest contingent.   

The Quebec numbers are basically a reflection of how well the candidates speak French.  I don't speak French, but people who are bilingual say that Caron's French speaking ability ranks first, Ashton second, Singh third, and Angus a dismal fourth (I say dismal because that's generally how they describe his French -- the rest they feel speak okay).

I think, given what the poll says, that you're right, Singh has no chance of winning given how close it is and how low his second choice numbers are.  The scorched-earth negative campaign of Angus, which intended to label Singh an outsider, seems to have worked for him.

But, as I mentioned, I don't think the poll takes into account the July and August (to the 17th) new member sign ups.  Singh joined the race May 15.  So, that's one and a half months of new sign ups, in which he closed the gap.  Taking into account another six weeks of new sign ups, well, that would propel Singh far ahead, I believe.  Anyway, we'll find out soon enough.  ETA:  Or, maybe I'm wrong.  I'm suddenly having second thoughts about my analysis.  Bah.  Polls are for dogs.

Debater

Will not having a seat in the Commons hurt Jagmeet Singh’s leadership chances?

Chantal Hébert

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/09/11/will-not-having-a-seat-in...

Aristotleded24

Mr. Magoo wrote:
Polls are fun when you're feeling under-info-saturated, but remember that time that Donald Trump won anyway?

A more accurate example would be to recall when the polls accurately predicted that Clinton would beat Sanders during that state's Democratic primary.

R.E.Wood
pietro_bcc

pietro_bcc, I think you have a typo in your post.  It's Angus, not Ashton, who is the most popular with those 65 and over.

Yeah, it was a typo. For some reason I sometimes type Ashton when I mean Angus and vice versa, probably because they starts with an A and it gets crossed in my mind.

R.E.Wood

Angus is feeling confident and hoping to win on the second ballot:

https://www.timminstoday.com/local-news/angus-says-hes-in-an-excellent-p...

 

josh

Unless the third place finisher drops out after the first ballot, I see this going three ballots.

Mighty Middle

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
Stop being a Liberal joke.  His brother died the same year he graduated... 1998... not the year he stopped teaching.   His teaching "career" was form 1999 - 2002. 

Darn I got the dates wrong. Oh well, when you are right you are right Hunky_Monkey. My apologizes.

Mighty Middle

Double Post

Debater

Fading NDP presence in Quebec could give breath of life to a moribund Bloc Québécois

Longueuil-Saint-Hubert MP Pierre Nantel warns in an open letter published Thursday that under a leader set on a collision course with the National Assembly on secularism, the NDP could lose its tenuous connection with nationalist Quebecers and, by the same token, set the cause of federalism back in the province.

 Chantal Hébert

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/09/13/fading-ndp-presence-in-qu...

josh

Nantel supports Caron.  So it has to be viewed from that perspective.  And the NDP is really in a damned if they do, damned if they don't, position, on the issue.

NorthReport

My hunch is that this issue goes way beyond Quebec.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..can someone talk about voting strategies..please? for instance marking 1 & 2 only vs ranking them all.

NorthReport

Somewhere along the line apparently the NDP sent out a registration process if you wanted to vote after each round of voting. The deadline to do that is now passed. Too bad they didn't send it out as frequently as they do requests for money as a lot of people seem to be unaware of it.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Fading NDP presence in Quebec could give breath of life to a moribund Bloc Québécois

Longueuil-Saint-Hubert MP Pierre Nantel warns in an open letter published Thursday that under a leader set on a collision course with the National Assembly on secularism, the NDP could lose its tenuous connection with nationalist Quebecers and, by the same token, set the cause of federalism back in the province.

 Chantal Hébert

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/09/13/fading-ndp-presence-in-qu...

Mon Dieu! (or possibly "Mon Raison!" or "Mon Conscience!", to be secular about it), the last thing Quebec or anybody else in Canada needs is the return of the LPC-Bloc rivalry.  Other than the billionaires who would benefit from there being no effective opposition to corporate power again-as there would be in that scenario-that would be a tragedy for everybody.

R.E.Wood

epaulo13 wrote:

..can someone talk about voting strategies..please? for instance marking 1 & 2 only vs ranking them all.

I can only speak for myself on this, but I don't think there is any strategy to only ranking 1 or 2 candidates, and not completing your ballot fully with your 4 choices in order. 

But yes, there are strategies toward different goals:

- Do you want to give Caron or Ashton the best possible showing on ballot 1, although you believe that they will be in 3rd or 4th place? Then perhaps you give one of them your first choice spot on the 1st ballot.

- Do you have a firm 1st choice? If so, I'd say you should give them your #1 vote, regardless of whether you want to reward someone else you suspect will fall lower on the vote for "good sportsmanship" (essentially what it comes down to).

I will rank Angus #1 because he is my #1 choice - no doubts. I'll rank Caron #2 because I'm sure he'd make a very good leader and his late-game has really impressed me (although I expect him to sadly be eliminated on the first ballot). I'll rank Ashton #3 because, although I like her and think she's really improved over the course of the race, I have a sense that her campaign has run out of steam a bit toward the end (I expect her to be the second candidate eliminated). And I will rank Singh #4, because I think he could be a total disaster for the party outside of the GTA and Vancouver, and I dislike so many things about his campaign and his debating style, and I question the authenticity of his opinions (since he rarely has any opinion at all until they've been back-room-managed for several days)... Anyway - I expect Singh will be in first place on the first ballot, but will have very limited growth from that point on. I agree with Josh that this will likely go to 3 rounds of voting before Angus wins, but a second round win is not out of the question depending on the split between Singh and Angus at the beginning.

Since I absolutely do not want Singh to win, I feel it is very important for Angus to show strongly on the first ballot, and for the split between them to be as narrow as possible. So for that reason I won't "throw away" my first ballot vote by giving it as a "good sportsmanship" vote to Caron - I think it needs to go to Angus.

My voting package arrived in the mail yesterday, and I intend to vote online ballot-by-ballot, depending how things go. I think voting "live" is going to be more fun than mailing in the ballot in advance and not being able to adjust depending on who gets eliminated along the way.

Hope this helps, and happy voting!

R.E.Wood

NorthReport wrote:

Somewhere along the line apparently the NDP sent out a registration process if you wanted to vote after each round of voting. The deadline to do that is now passed. Too bad they didn't send it out as frequently as they do requests for money as a lot of people seem to be unaware of it.

What are you talking about???? The dates were known from the beginning. The party sent out emails urging people to get their membership renewed before the cut-off date. I know the candidates did, too, because I receive emails from 3 of them. Everyone made a major push to get people signed up, or renewed, in time to vote... If anyone missed that, then they just weren't paying any attention to the leadership race.

ETA: If you are a member, you will receive a package in the mail (mine arrived yesterday) with ballot and instructions for voting either by paper ballot via snail-mail or online (with a password) ballot-by-ballot.

NorthReport

I think you missed my point, but whatever!

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..txs r.e. wood

Debater

Ken Burch wrote:

Debater wrote:

Fading NDP presence in Quebec could give breath of life to a moribund Bloc Québécois

Longueuil-Saint-Hubert MP Pierre Nantel warns in an open letter published Thursday that under a leader set on a collision course with the National Assembly on secularism, the NDP could lose its tenuous connection with nationalist Quebecers and, by the same token, set the cause of federalism back in the province.

 Chantal Hébert

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/09/13/fading-ndp-presence-in-qu...

Mon Dieu! (or possibly "Mon Raison!" or "Mon Conscience!", to be secular about it), the last thing Quebec or anybody else in Canada needs is the return of the LPC-Bloc rivalry.  Other than the billionaires who would benefit from there being no effective opposition to corporate power again-as there would be in that scenario-that would be a tragedy for everybody.

Hébert is just exploring the possibility that the decline of the NDP in Quebec may help the BQ slightly.  It's too early to predict a full return of the BQ.  At the moment the Liberals still have a big advantage in Quebec.

Btw, there's actually an error in Hébert's column -- she says that the BQ finished 2nd in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, but it was actually the Liberals who finished 2nd in that riding.

mark_alfred

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/what-beef-do-ndp-mps-have-with-...

Article that looks at why Angus has so few caucus endorsements.  Seems, in spite of his preaching respect for the grassroots, that during his tenor as caucus chair, he apparently was a pretty dictatorial top down sorta leader.

Quote:
Some NDP MPs say they came to see him as a top-down, do-it-my-way politician, not the grassroots listener he claims to be. Many in the NDP caucus had chafed under the autocratic style of outgoing leader Tom Mulcair – and some feel Mr. Angus shared some of his faults. Mr. Angus ran caucus his way, some NDP MPs say.

Aristotleded24

R.E.Wood wrote:
I'll rank Ashton #3 because, although I like her and think she's really improved over the course of the race, I have a sense that her campaign has run out of steam a bit toward the end (I expect her to be the second candidate eliminated).

I can't help but think that the gong show masquerading as the Manitoba NDP leadership race (particularly her dad's bringing up of old domestic violence charges against Wab Kinew that were eventually thrown out) may have damaged her campagin. When I looked at the endorsements, I was shocked at how few she has from her home province.

Debater

Caron says he’s the NDP’s best bet to win back Quebec

Caron believes that for the party to climb out of its third-place position in Parliament, it needs to win back the seats it gained in Quebec with the 2011 “orange wave” led by the late Jack Layton.

“That, for me, is unavoidable,” said Caron, the only leadership candidate from Quebec.

He argued he’s the only leadership candidate who understands Quebec politics and believes he is bringing forward a plan to “move the party in a different direction” after learning from previous NDP strategies that failed to garner enough support to gain power.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/09/13/caron-says-hes-the-ndps-b...

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Tom Parkin wrote:
NDP polling Jul, Aug, Sep by Mainstreet: Angus 35, 42, 33. Ashton 32, 28, 17. Caron 10, 17, 13. Singh 12, 14, 36.

This suggests that support for Singh has surged between the August and September polls, at the expense of the other three candidates -- Angus and Ashton down 9 points each, Caron down 4 points.

mark_alfred

Re:  1090

Left Turn:  no, not at the expense of the other three candidates.  Rather, the last poll took into account some of the recent new sign ups of members by all the candidates, taken from updated donor lists (I believe updated from the second quarter, which went to the end of June -- the previous polls did not include new member sign ups).  So, what it means is that Singh signed up a lot more new member supporters than did the other three.

The only candidate who appears to have had a bit of a slide is Ashton, due to what appears to be an intentional move by various establishment types to build up Caron to raid her support, which is something I can't quite figure out.  I assume Caron will still be eliminated first, due to signing up so few new members (just look at the low number of Quebec members).  I wonder though whom he'll throw his support to.  It's curious.  I'm not sure what the rationale for the last minute push is, for Caron, by Topp and crew.

R.E.Wood

mark_alfred wrote:

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/what-beef-do-ndp-mps-have-with-...

Article that looks at why Angus has so few caucus endorsements.  Seems, in spite of his preaching respect for the grassroots, that during his tenor as caucus chair, he apparently was a pretty dictatorial top down sorta leader.

Quote:
Some NDP MPs say they came to see him as a top-down, do-it-my-way politician, not the grassroots listener he claims to be. Many in the NDP caucus had chafed under the autocratic style of outgoing leader Tom Mulcair – and some feel Mr. Angus shared some of his faults. Mr. Angus ran caucus his way, some NDP MPs say.

Angus has loads of endorsements from former MP's who've worked with him. There are 2 or 3 sides to every story, and this quote from your linked article tells another:

Some of Mr. Angus's allies say the Timmins MP paid a price for being the caucus referee at a tough time. Party delegates voted out Mr. Mulcair in April, 2016, but then there was a caucus dispute: Mr. Mulcair wanted to stay until a new leader was chosen and some MPs wanted him to go. Mr. Angus was in the middle. One veteran New Democrat said Quebec MPs who wanted Mr. Mulcair to stay thought Mr. Angus was conspiring to push him out; but other MPs who wanted Mr. Mulcair out felt Mr. Angus was too heavy-handed in shutting down the squabble.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If Caron were to be leader, I'd suggest he make these appointments:
Ashton: Youth/Social Activist Lieutenant;

Singh: Ontario Lieutenant;

Angus:  Guys Who Were Punk Rockers Twenty Years Ago Lieutenant.

R.E.Wood

This is interesting: 

Nearly 600 federal NDP members receive extra ballots ahead of leadership vote

Though the party says it will ensure that no member votes twice, the issue has raised questions about whether the party needs to simplify its membership system...

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/nearly-600-federal-ndp-members-rec...

And in the same article:

Jenn Prosser, campaign manager for leadership candidate Niki Ashton, said her campaign has set up a system to help people with ballot issues.

But she expressed concern that there was no “hard system” for requiring the provinces to share their membership lists with the federal party, aside from the Aug. 17 deadline.

“It’s almost impossible to say how many members there were or are at any given time,” she said.

Prosser also cast doubt on whether the 47,000 people Ontario MPP Jagmeet Singh’s campaign claims to have signed up — more than a third of all current members — are actually Singh supporters. Singh was the only one of the four candidates to release membership numbers after Aug. 17.

Prosser said it would be “almost impossible” for a third of NDP members to have decided to support one candidate by the middle of August. She argued that all the campaigns were approaching many of the same people — those with lapsed memberships, for instance — and the fact that they agreed to sign up when contacted by Singh’s team doesn’t mean they’ll actually vote for him.

“I do not believe that 47,000 people had made up their minds about who they were supporting,” she said. “We would never claim that every single member that signed up through Niki’s site is a Niki supporter.”

mark_alfred

R.E.Wood wrote:
Angus has loads of endorsements from former MP's who've worked with him. There are 2 or 3 sides to every story, and this quote from your linked article tells another:

Some of Mr. Angus's allies say the Timmins MP paid a price for being the caucus referee at a tough time. Party delegates voted out Mr. Mulcair in April, 2016, but then there was a caucus dispute: Mr. Mulcair wanted to stay until a new leader was chosen and some MPs wanted him to go. Mr. Angus was in the middle. One veteran New Democrat said Quebec MPs who wanted Mr. Mulcair to stay thought Mr. Angus was conspiring to push him out; but other MPs who wanted Mr. Mulcair out felt Mr. Angus was too heavy-handed in shutting down the squabble.

Curious though that Saganash didn't endorse him, given that they worked together on the Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development committee.  You would expect that a caucus mate that he worked closely with over the years would give his endorsement.

Hunky_Monkey

Left Turn wrote:

Tom Parkin wrote:
NDP polling Jul, Aug, Sep by Mainstreet: Angus 35, 42, 33. Ashton 32, 28, 17. Caron 10, 17, 13. Singh 12, 14, 36.

This suggests that support for Singh has surged between the August and September polls, at the expense of the other three candidates -- Angus and Ashton down 9 points each, Caron down 4 points.

Personally, I think Mainstreet polls are garbage from start to now.  They were garbage when they had Singh in last place and they're garbage when they now have him in first.  

Hunky_Monkey

mark_alfred wrote:

Re:  1090

Left Turn:  no, not at the expense of the other three candidates.  Rather, the last poll took into account some of the recent new sign ups of members by all the candidates, taken from updated donor lists (I believe updated from the second quarter, which went to the end of June -- the previous polls did not include new member sign ups).  So, what it means is that Singh signed up a lot more new member supporters than did the other three.

The only candidate who appears to have had a bit of a slide is Ashton, due to what appears to be an intentional move by various establishment types to build up Caron to raid her support, which is something I can't quite figure out.  I assume Caron will still be eliminated first, due to signing up so few new members (just look at the low number of Quebec members).  I wonder though whom he'll throw his support to.  It's curious.  I'm not sure what the rationale for the last minute push is, for Caron, by Topp and crew.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Caron in third with Ashton in fourth.  He has some good momentum now that may make that happen.  

I have my voting package now.  May give Caron my first vote and Singh my second.  I like Guy and he's done well in this race.  

Hunky_Monkey

R.E.Wood wrote:

Angus has loads of endorsements from former MP's who've worked with him. 

He has seven former MPs endorsing him that he's worked with in the House of Commons.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Mark Alfred wrote:
The only candidate who appears to have had a bit of a slide is Ashton, due to what appears to be an intentional move by various establishment types to build up Caron to raid her support[/url]

While I don't deny that some establishment types are pushing Caron, the numbers clearly show Caron down by 4 points; and Angus is also down by 9 points which is the same number by which Ashton is down. The only candidate that appears to have gained absolute support since the August poll is Singh.

NorthReport

So how does the NDP prevent those who received 2 ballots from voting twice?

pietro_bcc

Left Turn wrote:

Mark Alfred wrote:
The only candidate who appears to have had a bit of a slide is Ashton, due to what appears to be an intentional move by various establishment types to build up Caron to raid her support[/url]

While I don't deny that some establishment types are pushing Caron, the numbers clearly show Caron down by 4 points; and Angus is also down by 9 points which is the same number by which Ashton is down. The only candidate that appears to have gained absolute support since the August poll is Singh.

As the pollster pointed out those earlier polls weren't done with the same lists.

The earlier polls were done exclusively with previous NDP members who had donated at least 200$ in the past years (including no one who joined during the leadership, which means they missed 2/3rds of the membership and most of Singh's supporters.)

The new poll takes into account most NDP members and draws from a list of just under 120,000 (out of 124,000 actual members), making it more accurate.

The polls don't show a shift of support, they show a change in the poll's methodology and population size from which to draw the sample.

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