So Justin Trudeau and his Liberals are finished and done like dinner-who benefits?

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bekayne

Cody87 wrote:

In the past year or so, Forum has put the Conservatives much higher than every other pollster. Either something is wrong with their methodology, or something is wrong with every other pollster. So I wouldn't freak out if Forum has cons up 12.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...

Edit: Pretty interesting that Liberals were consistently up 20 points until November 2016, and pretty sharply dropped 10 points within a couple of weeks of the U.S. election.

There were some odd numbers in the Forum poll. Outside of Quebec, nothing changed. But Quebec went from a 24% Liberal lead to a 6% Conservative lead. Do any of the Quebecers here buy that?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

bekayne wrote:

Cody87 wrote:

In the past year or so, Forum has put the Conservatives much higher than every other pollster. Either something is wrong with their methodology, or something is wrong with every other pollster. So I wouldn't freak out if Forum has cons up 12.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...

Edit: Pretty interesting that Liberals were consistently up 20 points until November 2016, and pretty sharply dropped 10 points within a couple of weeks of the U.S. election.

There were some odd numbers in the Forum poll. Outside of Quebec, nothing changed. But Quebec went from a 24% Liberal lead to a 6% Conservative lead. Do any of the Quebecers here buy that?

I always found Forum to be pro Conservative.The Latest Nonos had the Liberals with a 6 point lead over the Cons. Maybe they have a bias. If the Consevatives win one seat in Montréal it's game over.

I hope people get used to Trumpian authoritarian rule and a government meaner than the Harper days.

It is what it wis.

Pondering

I don't buy it. Nothing has happened for Quebecers to flip like that. I can't see Scheer winning them over. 

josh

There were some odd numbers in the Forum poll. Outside of Quebec, nothing changed. But Quebec went from a 24% Liberal lead to a 6% Conservative lead

That's a joke.

R.E.Wood

WWWTT wrote:

Should also point out R.E.Wood that liberal supporters always play this same game you’re so eager to play right now. Demonizing the conservatives to scare people into supporting the liberals. This tactic is is getting real old and lame. This is a waste of time tactic and shows how desperate the liberal supporters are. 

So if I don't cheer for a Scheer-led Conservative government, I'm a Liberal supporter? Twisted logic. 

Sean in Ottawa

Rob8305 wrote:

Wow!  It is worse than I ever could have imagined for us on the left, who are collateral damage of the disastrous Trudeau regime.  Those of you who gave me a WTF reaction to this post owe me an apology.  Forum came out today and showed that Scheer's Conservatives are now TWELVE (12) points ahead of the Trudeau Liberals! 12! That means Scheer is posed for the biggest majority in Canadian history.  He will surpass Mulroney's 1984 majority, which ironically another Trudeau was responsible for!  This is horrific.  I'm just in shock.  Forum's numbers are 46-34 Con.  Trudeau NEEDS TO RESIGN NOW to save progressive principles.  Also, Forum showed that the federal budget was massively unpopular.  Everything this clown does is massively unpopular.  He needs to GO STAT or else we'll be left reeling when Scheer gets his 250+ seats in 2019.

Scheer is incredibly dangerous.  Most Canadians will look at him and say "what a nice young guy" and vote for him even though he is to the RIGHT of Stephen Harper.

I am so angry right now.  Just livid.  I like what one poster said.  Trudeau needs to go and replace him with Freeland.  Like I said, the India trip has made Trudeau so toxic that it is not even remotely within the realm of possiblity for him to win another election in Canada.

He's in Kim Campbell, John Turner territory now.  The Liberals weren't even this far down during their crash after the income trust scandal in 2006, an election they lost.  Sure they were 12 points down or more in 2011, but they weren't the governing party then.  As an aside, Mulroney in '87-88 was only 6 points behind at worst in a campaign that he eventually won.  For the Liberals to be TWELVE down, means it's game over for them and for us.

And no, Allan, I didn't mean JT was fascist.  I meant Scheer is and he is now going to get the biggest majority in Canadian history!  Can you imagine Scheer yakking it up and becoming best buds with Trump.  Ugh...I need to puke!

I want to take issue with this on more than one count:

First - never ask someone to apologize for an opinion. You need to pause right there.

Second - your panic is misplaced. Governments often poll badly between elections. The Liberals are taking some bad press. The attention is on them but in an election the Conservatives will get evaluated and there is no indication that they will pass the test.

Third: the averages of the polls have never shown the Conservatives near a majority. The most likely scenarios after the next election are Liberal majority and Liberal minority with the NDP. Trudeau pay have policies that are close to conservatives at times but his rhetoric is too far from them and too close to the NDP to imagine a Conservative-Liberal government. A minority with the NDP is more hopeful by far than any other result possible. It would increase the chance of electoral reform going back on the agenda, a real pharmacare plan, and something to address income inequality to replace the bait and switch Liberal tax policies. These are, however, close enough to Liberal rhetoric that the Liberals could not turn away from them in favour of the conservatives. Trudeau is not anywhere near in danger, even if his party loses a majority. The Liberals in their 2015 gambit went all-in on an NDP vision. The next election could force them to start to deliver on it.

All this is of course dependent on the economy.

There is another risk that we do not talk about. What if  the wave of Trump-style populism hits Canada? If it does how would Canada realign?

My suggest of one possible scenario:

New populist party splits from Conservatives. It makes the Conservative rump more credible drawing from Liberals. The NDP also draw from Liberals as Liberals clearly not that much more likely to win. Populsit draws some support from all other parties although less than Conservatives. New alignment leads to 4 main parties from Centre left, centre, centre right, and far right. This dynamic forces PR.

In this scenario Canada could join a number of other countries in a series of coalitions between NDP, Liberals and moderate Conservatives keeping out the new populist party or a scary combination between the moderate conservatives and the populist party. In other words like much of Europe. In this scenario you could see the NDP govern with a moderate Conservative or a Liberal party depending on policies, numbers and leaders. Faced with a right wing populist party, the NDP woudl deal with a moderate conservative party to ensure there is a government or to avoid a scenario where the populist party comes to power. These calculations we have seen in Europe are not far off if a right wing Trump-style party came out of a split with the Conservatives. Of course Canada would effectively have its progressive conservatives back again.

If the dynamic continues, the ground looks worse for the centre and centre-left. In such a circumstance you could see the right wing and the moderate conservatives in power some day.... And Canadians would not need to move to the right for this to happen.

Liberal now around 35 -3 to populist - 5 to Conservatives - 5 NDP = 22%

Conservative now around 35 -15 to populist + 5 from Liberal as Conservatives loose fringe = 25

NDP now around 20 -2 to populist + 5 from Liberals as gap closes between them and NDP = 23

Green now 5 -1 to populist = 4

Others now 5 -2 to populist =3

New Right Wing populist party From other 2, Green 1, NDP 2, Conservative-15, Liberal3 = 23%

****

In fairness to Trudeau, he might think PR would hasten this along. I think that is a possibility but it could also help hold it back if more people were drawn to voting such that the far right woudl get less support in canada as a percentage than in other countries. Democracy is messy and a more democratic system risks taking account of a radical voice that has been buried.

 

 

Sean in Ottawa

BTW - Notwithstanding my previous warning post, I am in favour of PR. I think that not having PR risks a deterioration of voting and participation and the rise of the right eventually anyway. While PR increases the speed by which the right might become significant, it may also provide the antidote in better participation and opportunities for majorities to keep out extremes. I think the need is for both sides to acknowledge that there are risks on each side. The present FPTP also has risks in the present climate of radicalism.

Sean in Ottawa

I will add another prediction -- if a populist party comes in and gets close to 20% as I suggested above, this party woudl take 40% of the BQ support in Quebec. It would also create a merger and one I think would surprise people.

The Liberals and the Greens.

With the ecological evidence that is available, the previous dances between the Liberals and the Greens, the risk of a right wing party at a time when Green policy is more mainstreem, it makes sense to see a Liberal-Green party. So you would have the main parties as:

Right wing populist

Moderate conservative

Left party

Liberal Green.

 

In other words Canada would look like many other democracies in Europe.

I think due to Canada's advantages, Canada could well have this dynamic and favour the centre left rather than the right as the situation does in Europe now.

I do not think the Green party would survive both the mainstream movement to green policies and the introduction of a right wing party.

Of course this could only happen with resolution of the pipeline issue and with someone after Trudeau (his stance on pipelines make him not a unity candidate).

If anyone asks why not Green NDP -- I think both parties are further apart. The NDP is more left than the Greens and less likely to want to compromise. The Liberals could more easily see acceptance of Green policies while giving up less. It would for at least a while be a potent party. In my above scenario the NDP would have an advatnage over the Liberals. This union might give the advantage to a Green Liberal alliance for a time -- which is why it could happen. The two parties (Lib-GR and NDP) would make potential coalition partners along with a Conservative party that loses its fringe and becomes more of a PC party.

In my opinion...

WWWTT

R.E.Wood wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

Should also point out R.E.Wood that liberal supporters always play this same game you’re so eager to play right now. Demonizing the conservatives to scare people into supporting the liberals. This tactic is is getting real old and lame. This is a waste of time tactic and shows how desperate the liberal supporters are. 

So if I don't cheer for a Scheer-led Conservative government, I'm a Liberal supporter? Twisted logic. 

not cheering and demonizing are two different things. Maybe you’ll have better luck convincing voters?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

The Conservatives are turning themselves into a right-wing white supremacist faction. This will be supported by racists, fascists, social darwinists, and "moderate" Conservatives who taste power (I.e. Liberals who join the Conservative bandwagon whenever they win).

In Canada, there will be no need for a splinter far-right party, as the Conservatives will fill that bill. 

Scheer will be busy trying to make it appear that this is not so, but braying from minor reactionary Tory functionaries will be heard and reprinted.

The current Conservative mindset is "Trudeau wants to bring in Sharia Law". They are anti-immigration from non-white countries, and they are pro-Trump. They are "anti-political correctness" which means they oppose any social progress we have made.

If a Liberal says "Vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives", ask "Why are you voting Conservative?"

R.E.Wood

WWWTT wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

Should also point out R.E.Wood that liberal supporters always play this same game you’re so eager to play right now. Demonizing the conservatives to scare people into supporting the liberals. This tactic is is getting real old and lame. This is a waste of time tactic and shows how desperate the liberal supporters are. 

So if I don't cheer for a Scheer-led Conservative government, I'm a Liberal supporter? Twisted logic. 

not cheering and demonizing are two different things. Maybe you’ll have better luck convincing voters?

I suggest you read this:

https://news.vice.com/en_ca/article/a3j8ab/andrew-scheer-will-oppose-tra...

Sean in Ottawa

progressive17 wrote:

The Conservatives are turning themselves into a right-wing white supremacist faction. This will be supported by racists, fascists, social darwinists, and "moderate" Conservatives who taste power (I.e. Liberals who join the Conservative bandwagon whenever they win).

In Canada, there will be no need for a splinter far-right party, as the Conservatives will fill that bill. 

Scheer will be busy trying to make it appear that this is not so, but braying from minor reactionary Tory functionaries will be heard and reprinted.

The current Conservative mindset is "Trudeau wants to bring in Sharia Law". They are anti-immigration from non-white countries, and they are pro-Trump. They are "anti-political correctness" which means they oppose any social progress we have made.

If a Liberal says "Vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives", ask "Why are you voting Conservative?"

I disagree. The pressure is not constant on just one party. There is a moderate Conservative constituency.

If the Conservatives become the right wing splinter, that pressure moves to the Liberal party which in its turn  can move in identity and rhetorically to the right or split. This dynamic is becuase moderate Conservatives would flow to the Liberals if there is no moderate Conservative party. Within the Liberal party they will either provoke an eventual split or force that party to the right from the centre from which they presently speak (if not always act). If the Liberals move right then those to the left within that party would move to the NDP causing the NDP to be pressured to split between a party perhaps more like Mulcair and one more like where it seems to be going now.

In any case, the Conservatives are not sustainable as a single party from the extreme to moderate. That party can split -- move left allowing a new extreme party or move right allowing a moderate party (that might be the Liberals moving right). The result -- despite name changes and movements is 4 parties. This is the inevitable result of a move to have a political voice for the more extreme right. It cannot be accomodated in the long term by a single right of centre political movement.

The political movements of Canada cannot be cut into two meeting at the middle when the wings are that far away. For many years all parties drifted to the centre and in fact, such a situation could lead to only two parties. But with the wings moving outwards, additional parties will form. The NDP has leaned just enough to the left that the main centre Liberal party remained defined. As whatever movement of extreme right takes shape, either the Liberals will swallow the centre right or a new party will form. I think it is unlikely that the Liberals will move to the right more than they are. They seem to want the branding of being progressive, even if they might not deliver anywhere near what people here expect from a left party.

josh

Third: the averages of the polls have never shown the Conservatives near a majority

In fact, even with the CPC lead in the vote, they're still showing the Liberals with more seats:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poll-tracker-federal-poll-averages-and-seat-projections-1.4171977

 

Sean in Ottawa

josh wrote:

Third: the averages of the polls have never shown the Conservatives near a majority

In fact, even with the CPC lead in the vote, they're still showing the Liberals with more seats:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poll-tracker-federal-poll-averages-and-seat-projections-1.4171977

 

This is something I expected. The Conservative support is very concentrated even if it is motivated.

A Liberal minority is not the worst result possible when it comes to potential for some positive change.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

It seems that even Warren Kinsella thinks the India trip was a disaster for Trudeau. His conclusion:

Warren Kinsella wrote:

In other words, Justin, your Indian imbroglio was not just a diplomatic disaster, it was a Twitter train-wreck, too. And we’re all wondering if, for you, the latter is a far bigger deal than the former. That you regard governance as a series of Instagram moments, interrupted only by bedtime and meals.

Time to grow up, Justin. Quite a few of us have had it with this BS.

Sincerely,

Pretty Much Everyone, Including People Who Voted For You Like Me

voice of the damned

Hm. To paraphrase LBJ, "If they've lost Kinsella..."

But I'm still wondering how much long-term damage the Indian debacle does to Trudeau. I think for a lot of voters, the words "Justin Trudeau accused a friendly government of trying to set him up" will not neccessarily switch on the relevant light-bulbs.

What Trudeau did was pretty bad, when you think about it, but the point is, you HAVE to think about it, in order to realize that. It's not like "Rob Ford smoked crack cocaine", in terms of its ability to penetrate the soupy fog of whateverism.  

 

Sean in Ottawa

I am not sure that they have lost Kinsella. We are a long way from an election. People criticize their own parties at times in the hope that the party will take it seriously in time to change things before the next election. Kinsella likey does not wnat to see this become the seeds of defeat. It is also normal that the angriest when a party screws up will be supporters. They are the ones that are let down when there is an implosion.

 

bekayne

voice of the damned wrote:

Hm. To paraphrase LBJ, "If they've lost Kinsella..."

 

Did they ever have him? Don't you remember what happened when Kinsella tried to run for them in 2015? 

voice of the damned

bekayne wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

Hm. To paraphrase LBJ, "If they've lost Kinsella..."

 

Did they ever have him? Don't you remember what happened when Kinsella tried to run for them in 2015? 

No, actually, I do not. The last things I really recall about Kinsella was when he ran Rocco Rossi's campaign in Toronto(the election Ford one), and a few years later, he seemed to be shilling(officially or otherwise) for the Alberta Tories against Wildrose.

So, if you have the time and inclination, fill me in!

Sean in Ottawa

voice of the damned wrote:

bekayne wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

Hm. To paraphrase LBJ, "If they've lost Kinsella..."

 

Did they ever have him? Don't you remember what happened when Kinsella tried to run for them in 2015? 

No, actually, I do not. The last things I really recall about Kinsella was when he ran Rocco Rossi's campaign in Toronto(the election Ford one), and a few years later, he seemed to be shilling(officially or otherwise) for the Alberta Tories against Wildrose.

So, if you have the time and inclination, fill me in!

He lost to the Reform party in Vancouver in 1997. I doubt that this is a major factor. He has been given the cold shoulder at times but this is likely due to who he has supported: Chretien, Ignatieff. He thought about running in Toronto but stopped realizing he lacked support. He has been loyal to the Liberals and sees himself as an advisor. When he attacks he is seeking a change not a defeat, in my opinion.

bekayne

voice of the damned wrote:

bekayne wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

Hm. To paraphrase LBJ, "If they've lost Kinsella..."

 

Did they ever have him? Don't you remember what happened when Kinsella tried to run for them in 2015? 

No, actually, I do not. The last things I really recall about Kinsella was when he ran Rocco Rossi's campaign in Toronto(the election Ford one), and a few years later, he seemed to be shilling(officially or otherwise) for the Alberta Tories against Wildrose.

So, if you have the time and inclination, fill me in!

He wanted to run in Beaches, but apparently Gerald Butts blocked it. He then talked about how badly Trudeau was going to do, until the polls started to show otherwise. Kinsella also started a rumour in the middle of the campaign that those at the top of the Liberal team had been fired.

Cody87

Kinsella is also friends with that guy who almost won in Brandon-Souris in the byelection, and promoted him heavily. After the election, the guy who lost the byelection talked smack about Liberal HQ interfering in the campaign and being the reason he didn't win. This was circulated by Kinsella, so he did himself no favours. Then neither Kinsella nor his friend were allowed to run in the GE.

WWWTT

progressive17 wrote:

The Conservatives are turning themselves into a right-wing white supremacist faction. This will be supported by racists, fascists, social darwinists, and "moderate" Conservatives who taste power (I.e. Liberals who join the Conservative bandwagon whenever they win).

In Canada, there will be no need for a splinter far-right party, as the Conservatives will fill that bill. 

Scheer will be busy trying to make it appear that this is not so, but braying from minor reactionary Tory functionaries will be heard and reprinted.

The current Conservative mindset is "Trudeau wants to bring in Sharia Law". They are anti-immigration from non-white countries, and they are pro-Trump. They are "anti-political correctness" which means they oppose any social progress we have made.

If a Liberal says "Vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives", ask "Why are you voting Conservative?"

in this comment u mention the conservatives/tory 8 times and the liberals twice. Never do u mention the NDP. 

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