Three Byelections Called

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I doubt Debater would be gloating about the Green showing if they weren't hurting the NDP with it.

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

newest results put the NDP 1 vote ahead.  Hopefully, that trend will hold and accelerate.  The Greens are only running this close, I think, because the local Liberals voted for them strategically just to mess over the NDP.

No, it seems that their increase is coming equally from the Conservatives & the NDP

NorthReport

Not looking at all good for the Liberals as their vote has droped more than 50% in BC and is down in Ontatio as well.

Date / Event / Riding / NDP / Cons / Libs / Grns

2011 / GE / Durham / 21% / 55% / 18% / 5%
2012 / BY / Durham / 27% / 51% / 17% / 4%

2011 / GE / Calgary - Centre / 15% / 58% / 18% / 12%
2012 / BY / Calgary-Centre / 5% / 36% / 33% / 26%

2011 / GE / Victoria / 51% / 24% / 14% / 12%
2012 / BY / Victoria / 37% / 13% / 12% / 37%

jerrym

VICTORIA:

Candidate             Party             Votes       %

Green Party Donald Galloway          2577   36.9

Conservative Dale Gann                  894   12.8

Libertarian Art Lowe                        36     0.5

Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney          54     0.8

NDP  Murray Rankin                       2556   36.6

LiberalPaul Summerville                   860  12.3

Polls reporting: 56/256 Voter turnout: 6,977 of 88,886 registered electors (7.9%)

 

madmax

Debater wrote:

NDP numbers have shrunk somewhat in Durham, and Liberal numbers have grown slightly.  Not particularly significant, but will affect the overall numbers.  Conservatives over 50% there.

DURHAM  [190/236]

Conservative - 50.6%

NDP - 26.7%

Liberal - 16.8%

http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx

 

The NDP is 6%  Higher then in 2011 in Durham according to your post. The liberals are Slightly lower then in 2011.

ConservativeBev Oda55

New DemocraticTammy Schoep 21.10

LiberalGrant Humes 17.85-

So Grant Humes has as of the time of Debators post, Dropped  1%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Well, if the Greens are gaining votes from the Cons, that totally discredits the idea that there could ever be anything progressive about them.

Clearly, the Greens now exist solely to keep Harper in power.

jerrym

DURHAM: 

Party                                                Votes     %

Green Party Virginia Ervin                      1,296   4.1 

Liberal Grant Humes                           5,373   17.1

  Christian Heritage Party Andrew Moriarity  400    1.3

0.8%Online Party Michael Nicula                      129    0.4

NDP-New Democratic Party Larry O'Connor 8311   26.5

Conservative Erin O'Toole                      15840   50.5 

Polls reporting: 221/236Voter turnout: 31,349 of 95,296 registered electors (32.9%)

NorthReport

Bad, bad nite for the Trudeau Liberals who are in 4th place in BC and 3rd place in Ontario.

 

Date / Event / Riding / NDP / Cons / Libs / Grns

2011 / GE / Durham / 21% / 55% / 18% / 5%
2012 / BY / Durham / 27% / 51% / 17% / 4%

2011 / GE / Calgary - Centre / 15% / 58% / 18% /12%
2012 / BY / Calgary-Centre / 4% / 36% / 33% / 24%

2011 / GE / Victoria / 51% / 24% / 14% / 12%
2012 / BY / Victoria / 37% / 13% / 12% / 36%

jerrym

CALGARY CENTRE:

 Candidate             Party               Votes        %

Joan Crockatt      Conservative         6755      36.2

Antoni Grochowski Independent           96        0.5

Harvey Locke              Liberal         6145      33.0

Dan Meades                   NDP           778       4.2

Tony Prashad          Libertarian            85        0.5

Chris Turner                  Green        4782       25.7

Polls reporting: 186/263Voter turnout: 18,641 of 93,984 registered electors (19.8%)

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Debater, http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/latest-polling-thread-june-18-.... Go look what you wrote about Jan. You know full well you wrote this.

Oh, and look at your posts above. Why should anyone treat you serioulsy. You love to gloat, don't you. Why are you even here?

I took a look - and guess what?  I didn't call Jan any names or engage in any name-calling.

"Actually, Jan, if you want to be an objective political analyst, you need to acknowledge that Justin Trudeau has some good political skills and knows how to campaign. That's how he got elected twice in Quebec, in difficult circumstances. Once against an incumbent Bloc MP, and then in an election in which almost 60 ridings went NDP and very few Quebec incumbents survived. Even giants like Duceppe were toppled."

 

You didn't look very hard Debater.

NorthReport

Thanks for that madmax. Wink

jerrym

VICTORIA:

Candidate             Party             Votes       %

Green Party Donald Galloway          3338   36.3

Conservative Dale Gann                  1207  13.1

Libertarian Art Lowe                        46     0.5

Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney         66     0.7

NDP  Murray Rankin                       3396   36.9

LiberalPaul Summerville                  1145  12.4

Polls reporting: 80/256Voter turnout: 9,864 of 88,886 registered electors (11.1%)

bekayne

It looks like a lot of former David Anderson voters in Victoria that switched to the NDP are now switching to the Greens

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Looks like the Cons have held Calgary-Center...they've had the same three-point margin most of the night now.

Victoria is still too close to call-God it'll be tragic if the Greens win.  There's no good reason for them to do so.  The NDP had the best possible candidate and a good campaign.  It looks like some sort of deal was made between the local Cons and the local Libs to throw their support to the Greens just to stick it to Mulcair.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

You know this is starting to look like a bad night for the Libs and the New Dems. Does anyone want to offer an opinion about what the hell is behind the Greens apparent surge? Do people really not know about what they are voting? May is going to be insufferable.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Ken I would love to think it true, but how do you know a deal was made. Maybe this is Lincoln's "you can fool some of the people some of the time" meme in action. Seriously, I'd love to think you are right. Any suggestions?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I don't know...but it is suspicious that BOTH of those parties had a large drop in support for their candidates...investigations will be necessary.

What the hell do YOU think happened in Victoria, Arthur?  This was one of the safest NDP ridings in the whole damn country.

I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this.  If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015? 

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

Looks like the Cons have held Calgary-Center...they've had the same three-point margin most of the night now.

Victoria is still too close to call-God it'll be tragic if the Greens win.  There's no good reason for them to do so.  The NDP had the best possible candidate and a good campaign.  It looks like some sort of deal was made between the local Cons and the local Libs to throw their support to the Greens just to stick it to Mulcair.

The Liberals are down about 2% there, but both the NDP & Conservatives are down over 10%

jerrym

VICTORIA:

Candidate             Party             Votes       %

Green Party Donald Galloway          4735   36.2

Conservative Dale Gann                  1723  13.2

Libertarian Art Lowe                        77     0.6

Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney          94     0.7

NDP  Murray Rankin                       4824   36.9

LiberalPaul Summerville                  1616  12.4

Polls reporting: 110/256Voter turnout: 13,069 of 88,886 registered electors (14.7%)

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this.  If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015? 

It's premature, the Victoria area has always been a bit quirky in it's voting patterns

jerrym

Still very close in Victoria but Rankin has increased his lead to 89 votes.

D V

last look
5 457 v 5 431   
out of 14 829
curr. diff. not much over the 1/1000 line, 'd squeak just short of triggering:

2.2 Procedural issues
2.2.1 Automatic judicial recount in the case of a close result

A judicial recount must take place if the difference between the number of votes cast for the candidate with the most votes and the number of votes cast for any other candidate is less than one one-thousandth (1/1000) of the votes cast. The returning officer is obliged to make an application for a judicial recount within four days of the initial results being validated. [300(1)]

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/jud&document=ju...
  

D V

last look
5 457 v 5 431   
out of 14 829
curr. diff. not much over the 1/1000 line, 'd squeak just short of triggering:

2.2 Procedural issues
2.2.1 Automatic judicial recount in the case of a close result

A judicial recount must take place if the difference between the number of votes cast for the candidate with the most votes and the number of votes cast for any other candidate is less than one one-thousandth (1/1000) of the votes cast. The returning officer is obliged to make an application for a judicial recount within four days of the initial results being validated. [300(1)]

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/jud&document=ju...
  

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Ken, I have no idea at all. Maybe Mulcair was the wrong choice, and maybe, we didn't have anyone step up who will appeal to Canadians. Maybe the NDP under Jack was a fluke. Maybe people really don't want much change. I don't know. I know nothing about politics in BC, or pretty much any where else. I don't have any answers at all. I will say that I have said over and over that I was concerned the NDP seemed to be doing nothing to develop any kind of national prescense outside of Ottawa. I am distrustful of the so called "brain trust" running things. We had the Party's President run in Winnipeg North and lose by 45 votes to the most shallow and slimy Lib MP in Canada. I can tell you I have been talking to a few what I would call well known NDP former MLAs and MPs who say the next election is in the bag because of revision in riding boundaries. I felt distrustful of that before this, and now I am even more distrustful. I think it is time for the NDP to suck back, reload, and take a look at what its doing and get back in the game. Otherwise, it'll be a masacer in 2015.

Policywonk

D V wrote:

last look
5 457 v 5 431   
out of 14 829
curr. diff. not much over the 1/1000 line, 'd squeak just short of triggering:

2.2 Procedural issues
2.2.1 Automatic judicial recount in the case of a close result

A judicial recount must take place if the difference between the number of votes cast for the candidate with the most votes and the number of votes cast for any other candidate is less than one one-thousandth (1/1000) of the votes cast. The returning officer is obliged to make an application for a judicial recount within four days of the initial results being validated. [300(1)]

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/jud&document=ju...
  

A little premature. If there are about 30,000 votes cast, the difference would have to be in the order of 30 votes or less.

D V

6 403 v 6 388 on 17 463
auto-recount territory
might not know who wins for some time

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Ken, I have no idea at all. Maybe Mulcair was the wrong choice, and maybe, we didn't have anyone step up who will appeal to Canadians. Maybe the NDP under Jack was a fluke. Maybe people really don't want much change. I don't know. I know nothing about politics in BC, or pretty much any where else. I don't have any answers at all. I will say that I have said over and over that I was concerned the NDP seemed to be doing nothing to develop any kind of national prescense outside of Ottawa. I am distrustful of the so called "brain trust" running things. We had the Party's President run in Winnipeg North and lose by 45 votes to the most shallow and slimy Lib MP in Canada. I can tell you I have been talking to a few what I would call well known NDP former MLAs and MPs who say the next election is in the bag because of revision in riding boundaries. I felt distrustful of that before this, and now I am even more distrustful. I think it is time for the NDP to suck back, reload, and take a look at what its doing and get back in the game. Otherwise, it'll be a masacer in 2015.

Well-put, sadly.

I think it's more Mulcair and his bruqueness, combined with his distrust and hostility towards activist types.  If you assume the voters don't want real change, it's totally irrational to seek the leadership of a party whose entire existence is predicated on fighting for radical change.

D V

tie now at 6 585 on 18 070

 

who expected this?

jerrym

The sewage issue became the dominant issue in the local campaign. I think the high cost of cleaning up sewage issue which was instigated by the Liberal Summerville attracted some voters to the Greens who amazingly switched from spending the money to clean up the sewage to saving the taxpayers money revealing their Progressive CONSERVATIVE origins (Elizabeht May and host of other Greens) and the fact that they are much more interested in going green only when the costs are low. When Suzuki attracted 1300 people to their meetings and spoke enthusiastically about their candidate, he sort of endorsed them without endorsing them, even though he then turned around and then said that he was not endorsing them and wanted the sewage treated. Remember Suzuki seriously considered running for the Joe Clark Conservatives in 1980. Many voters would like to believe in the Green ideal but don't want to pay for it. The Greens are now in a tie with 6585 votes each after 140 out of 256 polls.

ctrl190

6 585 vs. 6 585

 

Yup it'll be a long night.

D V

I recall a GPC blog post of mine from some 5 years ago...

http://www.greenparty.ca/node/3293

Victoria spells the future...

felixr

bekayne wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this.  If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015? 

It's premature, the Victoria area has always been a bit quirky in it's voting patterns

Yup.

jjuares

jerrym wrote:

The sewage issue became the dominant issue in the local campaign. I think the high cost of cleaning up sewage issue which was instigated by the Liberal Summerville attracted some voters to the Greens who amazingly switched from spending the money to clean up the sewage to saving the taxpayers money revealing their Progressive CONSERVATIVE origins (Elizabeht May and host of other Greens) and the fact that they are much more interested in going green only when the costs are low. When Suzuki attracted 1300 people to their meetings and spoke enthusiastically about their candidate, he sort of endorsed them without endorsing them, even though he then turned around and then said that he was not endorsing them and wanted the sewage treated. Remember Suzuki seriously considered running for the Joe Clark Conservatives in 1980. Many voters would like to believe in the Green ideal but don't want to pay for it. The Greens are now in a tie with 6585 votes each after 140 out of 256 polls.

Good point. Turnout will be less than 40%. Maybe the Greens were also more enthusiatic.

jerrym

Crockatt has widened her lead to 5.2%

CALGARY CENTRE:

 Candidate             Party               Votes        %

Joan Crockatt      Conservative         9479      37.5

Antoni Grochowski Independent          128        0.5

Harvey Locke              Liberal         8181      33.0

Dan Meades                   NDP           933       3.7

Tony Prashad          Libertarian           107       0.4

Chris Turner                  Green        6455       25.5

Polls reporting: 240/263 Voter turnout: 25,284 of 93,984 registered electors (26.9%)

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Suzuki almost ran for the Tories? Ok, that is it for me where he is concerned. What a moron!

bekayne

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Suzuki almost ran for the Tories? Ok, that is it for me where he is concerned. What a moron!

Joe Clark's Tories are worlds away from today's Conservatives

bekayne

jerrym wrote:

Crockatt has widened her lead to 5.2%

CALGARY CENTRE:

 Candidate             Party               Votes        %

Joan Crockatt      Conservative         9479      37.5

Antoni Grochowski Independent          128        0.5

Harvey Locke              Liberal         8181      33.0

Dan Meades                   NDP           933       3.7

Tony Prashad          Libertarian           107       0.4

Chris Turner                  Green        6455       25.5

Polls reporting: 240/263 Voter turnout: 25,284 of 93,984 registered electors (26.9%)

 

Looks like the Forum poll nailed it

Debater

Ken Burch wrote:

I don't know...but it is suspicious that BOTH of those parties had a large drop in support for their candidates...investigations will be necessary.

What the hell do YOU think happened in Victoria, Arthur?  This was one of the safest NDP ridings in the whole damn country.

I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this.  If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015? 

VICTORIA is not one of the safest NDP ridings in the country.  Solid yes, but not safe.  It was Liberal under David Anderson only a decade ago!  And remember what happened to WINNIPEG NORTH a couple of years ago.  I would say the safest NDP riding in Canada is VANCOUVER EAST.

And I don't think there's anything suspicious going on unless you want to also ask why the NDP vote dropped to single digits in CALGARY CENTRE.  Was it because the NDP voted GREEN to block the LIBERALS from winning?  Because the Liberals only narrowly lost there tonight thanks to 25% of the vote going Green.  If only about 5% of that 25% had gone Liberal, we would have beaten Crockatt.

Still a good night for the Liberals and Locke has built a strong foundation for the 2015 election.

But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.  She was able to turn out the Green vote in both ridings to massive proportions.

jerrym

DURHAM: 

Party                                                Votes     %

Green Party Virginia Ervin                      1,324   4.1 

Liberal Grant Humes                           5,548   17.2

  Christian Heritage Party Andrew Moriarity  409    1.3

0.8%Online Party Michael Nicula                      130    0.4

NDP-New Democratic Party Larry O'Connor 8554   26.5

Conservative Erin O'Toole                      16329   50.6 

Polls reporting: 227/236 Voter turnout: 32,294 of 95,296 registered electors (33.9%)

 

jjuares

It is lookinglike the Greens will take Victoria. Their lead of 130 plus is starting to be consistent.

Debater

bekayne wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Looks like the Cons have held Calgary-Center...they've had the same three-point margin most of the night now.

Victoria is still too close to call-God it'll be tragic if the Greens win.  There's no good reason for them to do so.  The NDP had the best possible candidate and a good campaign.  It looks like some sort of deal was made between the local Cons and the local Libs to throw their support to the Greens just to stick it to Mulcair.

The Liberals are down about 2% there, but both the NDP & Conservatives are down over 10%

Liberals are only 1 point behind the Conservatives in VICTORIA.  Not great by any means, but not the embarrasment there for the Libs some were predicting.

Big story tomorrow will be the Liberals coming close to winning in CALGARY CENTRE (and possibly a Green Party upset in VICTORIA ?)

mmphosis

Victoria Last updated: 00:32 ET Polls reporting: 170/256
Voter turnout: 22,401 of 88,886 registered electors (25.2%)

Green Party | Donald Galloway | 8,140 | 36.3% 36.3%
NDP | Murray Rankin | 8,001 | 35.7 | 35.7%

felixr

Debater wrote:

But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.

Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease Laughing

Debater

felixr wrote:

Debater wrote:

But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.

Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease Laughing

Actually, what we're seeing tonight is that those comments didn't have much of an effect.  Liberals were 2nd in the polling before that storm in a teacup, and they finished 2nd tonight.  As David Akin admitted on Twitter tonight, it doesn't look like those controversies had much effect in Alberta.  If the Liberals had dropped to 3rd or 4th, then you could say they had an effect, but that didn't happen.

In any event, for the Greens to take 25% of the vote in Calgary Centre and possibly prevent the Liberals from winning and to be in striking distance from winning Victoria means that Elizabeth May could be the happiest person on Parliament Hill tomorrow.

Who would have predicted that?

jerrym

Galloway is starting to increase his lead over Rankin (now 184 votes). 

VICTORIA:

Candidate             Party             Votes       %

Green Party Donald Galloway          8404   36.3

Conservative Dale Gann                  3262  14.1

Libertarian Art Lowe                        127    0.5

Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney          125    0.5

NDP  Murray Rankin                       8220   35.5

LiberalPaul Summerville                 2986   12.9

Polls reporting: 175/256Voter turnout: 23,124 of 88,886 registered electors (26.0%)

 

Debater

Who is this Galloway guy running for the Greens in Victoria?  Never heard of him before.  Anyone know his story?  The only Galloway I know is the British MP.

Whoever he is, he's running one heck of a campaign for the Greens tonight.

bekayne

felixr wrote:

Debater wrote:

But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.

Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease Laughing

But how much difference did it actually make? The polls had Crockett leading by about 5% before the remarks, after the remarks & when the actual votes are counted.

Debater

bekayne wrote:

felixr wrote:

Debater wrote:

But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.

Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease Laughing

But how much difference did it actually make? The polls had Crockett leading by about 5% before the remarks, after the remarks & when the actual votes are counted.

Yup.  We agree.  That's what I said above.  Trudeau comments had no effect it seems.

Debater

Looks like remaining polls are coming from mainly NDP areas and that ground reports suggest NDP will narrowly win over the Greens in VICTORIA.

But even so, this was supposed to be a solid hold.  Seems Elizabeth May could have some coattails in B.C. that could come in handy for the Greens in the next election.

jerrym

At 175/256 polls, Galloway had a 184 vote lead over Rankin. At 180 polls, Galloways lead was 315 votes I then wrote that whether Rankin can catch him depends on where the remaining polls as this quick increase is likely from wealthy polls. However, I had a glitch and could not enter this. Now Rankin has a 359 vote lead after 190 polls, likely due to middle and lower class polls coming in. Who wins still depends on where the remaining polls are located.

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