Peak Oil: Interesting Graph Re Recent Oil Production

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drgoodword
Peak Oil: Interesting Graph Re Recent Oil Production

 

drgoodword

The graph:

[img]http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/monthly_total_jan06.jpg[/img]

[url=http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/1/3402/63420]The site[/url] I found the graph on mentions that the seeming "peak" could be explained by refinery capacity, or even demand reduction from increased prices.

But it looks to me like it also could suggest we are, right now, at the very plateau of Peak Oil, and have been at the plateau for over a year.

I also recently came across an interesing energy-depletion/environmental-issues site I hadn't seen before:

[url=http://www.karavans.com/index.html]Karavans[/url].

maestro

Ya gotta be careful about graphs. For instance, the one posted registers only from 74 thru 85 million barrels day. but the minimum amount of oil dredged up per day is zero.

If you saw that line on a similar graph where the miniimum amount was zero, and the maximum 100, say, the line would look a lot more level.

However that may be, I agree that we are probably sitting on the peak as we speak.

In the early 80's, the US was temporarily able to increase their declining production, but it took a huge tax incentive, and a lot of money invested.

In the end, it formed a sort of mini peak, although it never achieved the levels prior to the 70's peak.

so it's possible there may be brief peaks, or mini peaks, but I believe the early 2000's will be seen to have been the peak when we look back on it.

Frustrated Mess Frustrated Mess's picture

US Army buys into Peak Oil:

quote:

he days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close. Domestic natural gas production peaked in 1973. The proved domestic reserve lifetime for natural gas at current consumption rates is about 8.4 yrs. The proved world reserve lifetime for natural gas is about 40 years, but will follow a traditional rise to a peak and then a rapid decline. Domestic oil production peaked in 1970 and continues to decline. Proved domestic reserve lifetime for oil is about 3.4 yrs. World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003. After peak production, supply no longer meets demand, prices and competition increase. World proved reserve lifetime for oil is about 41 years, most of this at a declining availability.

[url=http://www.energybulletin.net/13737.html]energybulletin.net[/url]

arborman

quote:


Originally posted by maestro:
[b]Ya gotta be careful about graphs. For instance, the one posted registers only from 74 thru 85 million barrels day. but the minimum amount of oil dredged up per day is zero.

If you saw that line on a similar graph where the miniimum amount was zero, and the maximum 100, say, the line would look a lot more level.

[/b]


Fair enough, though the econonomic effect of a 10m bbl drop in production would be earth shattering. Small drops lead to big spikes in price, a large drop, or even a gradual but steady drop, would lead to a $4 litre of gas within a year or two.

maestro

quote:


Originally posted by arborman:
[b]

Fair enough, though the econonomic effect of a 10m bbl drop in production would be earth shattering. Small drops lead to big spikes in price, a large drop, or even a gradual but steady drop, would lead to a $4 litre of gas within a year or two.[/b]


Fair enough, but the point I was making was about the graph, not the reality of the situation.

The graph was designed to exaggerate the ups and downs of production. In other words, it was designed to deceive.

The same line drawn on a graph where the minimum is 0, and the maximum 100, would be a lot less dramatic. At the same time, a similar graph designed with the time frame stretched out a bit would also look less dramatic.

Sorry, it's just a thing I have about graphs. I remember seeing one in the Globe & Mail that purported to show how quickly the RCMP were raising the numbers of female recruits.

The graph looked great. When you looked at the numbers that were the basis of the graph, they showed the RCMP were more or less standing still.

However, to get back to the matter at hand, I agree were are probably in the peak of oil production right now, graph or no graph.

I also agree that tiny changes in the level of supply can mean large price changes.

Transplant

[url=http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3001]Looks like peak oil is now.[/url]

quote:

1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd (up 0.11 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (6 months) is 84.28 mbpd (up 0.02 mbpd), down 0.07 mbpd from 2006 for the same period.

2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd (up 0.01 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 81.20 mbpd (down 0.04 mbpd), down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.

3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (up 0.15 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 73.23 mbpd (up 0.14 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.

4. NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd (down 0.21 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 7.97 mbpd (down 0.18 mbpd), up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.


epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

ebodyknows ebodyknows's picture

I thought we peaked a long time ago?  Isn't it time we moved on and started freaking out about the next thing like peak phosphorus?

 

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

ebodyknows wrote:

I thought we peaked a long time ago?  Isn't it time we moved on and started freaking out about the next thing like peak phosphorus?

 

..your right that it peaked a while back. and we should be freaking out, at least i am. the debate as i understand is the size of the plateau the peak rides on.

ebodyknows ebodyknows's picture

epaulo13 wrote:

 and we should be freaking out, at least i am.

You are? Hmmm, okay sell me on this. What's in it for me?  I want to live today. Tomorrow is a long time.

 

p.s. i like the graph I posted because it has more primary colours.

Charter Rights

Peak water........

DaveW

lots of scary forecasts about "peak" everything -- from copper to bauxite to iron ore -- were made back in the mid-1970s , and some in great detail,by the Club of Rome and many were repeated by the Carter White House

almost without exception, they turned out to be wrong, and Julian Simon had a good laugh at Paul Ehrlich's expense via their famous "wager" about future scarcity and commodity prices

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon-Ehrlich_wager
there are good reasons to be careful with the environment, but economic history suggests that given sufficient investment minable and pumpable resources will turn out to be abundant,
I'll bet that too

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

ebodyknows wrote: You are? Hmmm, okay sell me on this. What's in it for me?  I want to live today. Tomorrow is a long time.

..with all do respect i'm not going to try and convince you of anything. i will share some thoughts.
..2004-05 i watched a film called "the end of suburbia". it set off ideas in my head that eventually led me to change my life in ways i had only considered before. how could i survive a collapse suggested by running out of oil. i was pushing 60 and i had arthritis. three years ago i spent about 7 months in the south of spain. i found place called torrevieja which is about a 1/2 hour drive south of alicante on the mediterranean coast. the have a market every saturday that covers at least 8 sq blocks. most of the veggies and fruit is local. there is plenty of sunshine all year round and it doesn't really get cold. i can survive a collapse here. bonus is they have a salt lake on both sides of the city which makes it one of the best places on earth to live if you have arthritis. i have a plan.
..i'm sure the wealthy and the powerful have a plan. there is nothing for the rest of us. the loss of healthcare alone freaks me out.

http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

ebodyknows ebodyknows's picture

epaulo13 wrote:

..2004-05 i watched a film called "the end of suburbia". it set off ideas in my head that eventually led me to change my life in ways i had only considered before. 

I saw end of suburbia a while ago,  I've met many 'survivalists', seen peoples stores of beans and I still don't get it.

What's with this wide spead ideal of wanting to live forever?  I was leafing through 'authenticity hoax' today which mentioned this catroon.  I don't know why there seems to be such a strong correlation between a long and a good life.  Honestly, if people just gave it up and accepted people die every now and then we'd save a whole lot of energy and be happier while we are alive.

Back in 97 I heard a song called 'let me die in my footsteps' Should the peak oil apocalypse comes and I'm stuck without a plan and die that's fine.  In the mean time I will live my life according to what I believe to be a good life.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

ebodyknows wrote:

What's with this wide spead ideal of wanting to live forever?  I was leafing through 'authenticity hoax' today which mentioned this catroon.  I don't know why there seems to be such a strong correlation between a long and a good life.  Honestly, if people just gave it up and accepted people die every now and then we'd save a whole lot of energy and be happier while we are alive.

..it's not about living forever it's about the quality of life. prior to 3 surgeries i was in pain every second of the day that i moved. because of it there were many days that i wanted to die.
..there are many other situations that include children, family, friends and other people we love that would suffer needlessly so that we can waste our resources on things like war and frivolous shit today.

ebodyknows ebodyknows's picture

Don't take it personally.  I can understand emotions and the desire for self-preservation I don't understand the ideal of the long life or living in fear of what might happen or why it's a big deal to survive the peak.

 

Quote:
there are many other situations that include children, family, friends and other people we love that would suffer needlessly so that we can waste our resources on things like war and frivolous shit today.
 

Life for many is frivolous yet they want it to be longer.  It's easy to be sympathetic for someone close to you who is going to die but it takes a bit more integrity to be sympathetic for those children far away who are unborn and unnammed.  I'm not saying you should die, I'm just saying of all the people telling me about how they are changing their today for their fear of what might be tomorrow nobody has ever explained to me why it is so important to be here tomorrow.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..i read your last response quickly and got a wrong impression. sorry.
..i can only speak for myself but just because an idea can freak someone out doesn't mean that they live their lives in fear. i think i understand what you are questioning but for me (after a lifetime of self help) fear is a motivation. it's not something that you try and avoid. fear like wanting to live is a part of life.

ebodyknows ebodyknows's picture

I'm afraid you might be right.  I hope I'm not trying to avoid my fears, I would like to confront them and try to come to terms with them though.

ebodyknows ebodyknows's picture

The other thing is that for every scenario I can think of for surviving a post-oil apocalypse there is a million things I can think of that could make my chosen situation unpleasant at best. 

Quote:
I'm sure the wealthy and the powerful have a plan.

For example I might survive and find myself surrounded by a bunch of irritating formerly rich people who fear me. On the other hand dying in squallor with earnest friends who share the last bit of bread with me could be nice.

I think there could be much more to be afraid about if you actually survive compared to a relatively comfortable and safe existence I am experiencing now...in the end I think it's better that I don't think about it as I'm not likely to come up with any situation that will satisfy my overly critical mind.

More importantly on a planet where the majority of people are living day to day and have no recourse to initiate great life altering safety plans how do you talk about these things without severely lowering the public moral around you:

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

End peak consumption!!

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

ebodyknows wrote:

More importantly on a planet where the majority of people are living day to day and have no recourse to initiate great life altering safety plans how do you talk about these things without severely lowering the public moral around you:

..or lowering your own moral. this is a core issue you raise. i would think that all activists struggle with this. what do you do?

Noah_Scape

The production matches the demand - the Arabs said so!  I think it was King Abdul or whatever that said "we have lots of oil, we would pump more if someone would buy it".

So that chart merely reflects this reality. Global recession caused the graph to flatten on 2008 on.

Policywonk

DaveW wrote:

lots of scary forecasts about "peak" everything -- from copper to bauxite to iron ore -- were made back in the mid-1970s , and some in great detail,by the Club of Rome and many were repeated by the Carter White House

almost without exception, they turned out to be wrong, and Julian Simon had a good laugh at Paul Ehrlich's expense via their famous "wager" about future scarcity and commodity prices

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon-Ehrlich_wager
there are good reasons to be careful with the environment, but economic history suggests that given sufficient investment minable and pumpable resources will turn out to be abundant,
I'll bet that too

Ehrlich was off wildly in timing and didn't understand pricing mechanisms.  Simon didn't recognize physical limitations, and some of his statements are quite ludicrous. To some extent he was right about resource substitution (e.g. fiber optics for copper), and one of the reasons prices went down was because of intensive recycling of metals. Fresh water is rather hard to substitute for and desalination takes energy.

Oil prices have gone up and down and back up somewhat since 2007. If the early peak oil predictions are right, the price will be going up again sharply in the next few years. If we are lucky the production decline will not be too steep. I don't think we can count on that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_Prices_1861_2007.svg

 

ebodyknows ebodyknows's picture

epaulo13 wrote:

 

..or lowering your own moral. this is a core issue you raise. i would think that all activists struggle with this. what do you do?

I struggle too, I alienate people....even with the people I've never really preached to they see my own behaviour and just assume that I am judging them. Of course there are those who might take some of it as inspirational but they are usually the people who are already predisposed to being inspired by such things.   I made this video as a sort of personal reminder/inspiration of the beautiful things/experiences around me.  So I indulge in my desires but  I try to come to terms with the fact that not everyone shares the same definition of beauty as I do;  accepting that watching the sun set and rise or a night of fireworks are equally valid ways of engaging with the marvelousness of existence I also indulge in letting others share their joys with me.  Generally I try to give more attention to that which I find raises my moral.