16 Saskatchewan Constituencies to Watch in 2016 Election

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jerrym
16 Saskatchewan Constituencies to Watch in 2016 Election

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jerrym

According to the article, there are 16 constituencies bearing close watching: Cumberland, Kindersley, Moose Jaw North, Moose Jaw Wakamow, Prince Albert Carlton, Prince Albert Northcote, Regina Coronation Park, Regina Douglas Park, Regina Lakeview, Regina Rosemont, Regina University, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Meewasin, Saskatoon University, and the Battlefords. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/constituencies-watch-saskatch...

jerrym

10 candidates to watch in Saskatchewan's election

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/candidates-to-watch-saskatche...

jerrym

Live results for the Saskatchewan election will be available at the site below.

 

http://thestarphoenix.com/news/politics/live-results-saskatchewan-electi...

 

 

jerrym

A description of each Saskatchewan riding and its candidates can be found at 

 

 

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/2564575/saskatchewan-election-2016-the-ridings/

 

 

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.

The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.

jerrym

I agree. By offering no major new differences from Wall's agenda, Broten will leave the electoral picture either much the same as before the election or worse. 

 

Quote:

The Saskatchewan provincial election campaign ends just as it began, with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall enjoying a commanding lead in the polls.

The CBC Saskatchewan Poll Tracker, including all polls published to Saturday, gives the Saskatchewan Party the support of 59.9 per cent of voters, with the New Democrats trailing at 30.7 per cent. The Liberals and Greens are projected to have 4.3 per cent support each. ...

That is only marginally different from where the numbers stood when the legislature was dissolved on March 8. At the time, the Poll Tracker pegged the Saskatchewan Party to be ahead with 53.5 to 34.5 per cent support.

(The Poll Tracker will be updated with any new polls published on Sunday. Check here for the latest updates.)

Instead of tightening up, as campaigns often do as election day approaches, the margin between the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP has increased, from about 19 points to just over 29. That is not the kind of trend line that should give the New Democrats hope for a reversal of fortunes on Monday. ...

In even the worst case scenario for Brad Wall, then, his party is still projected to land well over the minimum threshold of 31 seats required to form a majority government.

That leaves three to 22 seats for the New Democrats, running the gamut from a significant improvement over 2011's results to the worst result in the party's history.

The most likely estimates, however, see the Saskatchewan Party capturing 46 to 52 seats, with the New Democrats taking between nine and 15. That means the parties appear to be on track for the status quo.

And that has been the story of this campaign from start to finish. The shifts that have been recorded in public opinion were marginal. In fact, the current polling averages differ little from the polls that have been published over the last four years: the Saskatchewan Party has averaged 58 per cent in surveys conducted between the 2011 vote and the start of this campaign, with the NDP averaging 30 per cent. ...

But the race has gotten tighter in Regina. The polls suggest that the Saskatchewan Party is sitting on about 49 per cent of the vote in Regina, with the New Democrats at 42 per cent. That represents a drop of seven points for the Saskatchewan Party and a gain of one point for the NDP.

That opens up a number of constituencies to the New Democrats, if their vote totals match the polls — seats like Regina Coronation Park, Regina Douglas Park, and Regina Walsh Acres.

A handful of NDP gains in the provincial capital, however, won't put much of a dent in the Saskatchewan Party's towering lead elsewhere in the province. Local issues in the smaller cities of Moose Jaw and Prince Albert could see some seats flip, and higher profile candidates elsewhere in Regina and Saskatoon could have an impact as well, to the benefit or detriment of both parties.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-polls-1....

 

 

swallow

I like that the NDP's choice for 5 to watch are mostly named Nicole. 

Broten will probably gain 3 or 4 seats and keep his job as a result. 

quizzical

i looked over some of the ridings. 3 new ones.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If the SNDP ends up losing even more seats, won't that basically be the end of the road for them?  Would it ever be possible for the SNDP to win another election if they end up with fewer seats than they have now?

Hard to see how Broten could make a case for ever getting another kick at the can even if he takes them up to twelve seats.

Misfit Misfit's picture

The NDP is not going to win the election this time around. However this will not be the end for the NDP in Saskatchewan. They have a very deep history and a great future.

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

Given the implosion of the party last time around, reducing the SP's massive majority is the only realistic goal for the NDP. They have some good people running, hope they gain some seats.

Debater
Aristotleded24

The question that Broten didn't think to try and answer is what he was trying to accomplish this election. Normally, parties want to win, but even under the best circumstances that just was not in the cards for the NDP this time around. So they needed to come up with something else. Did they want to send Brad Wall a message? Hold him accountable? Stand up to him? Present a vision for a green economy? Argue for preventative health services second to none in the country? A vision for arts and culture? Reconciliation with First Nations? If the election is a foregone conclusion, it really is hard to motivate people to care, and so Broten needed a compelling reason to give the voters as to why else to care. He didn't, and I'm willing to bet that voter turn-out isn't going to be particularly high this time around.

Debater

That's an excellent sumarry, A24.

It's something that all political parties, at both the federal & provincial level, should keep in mind.

The Federal Liberals forgot about it for a decade, and the Federal NDP forgot about it last year.

You need to give the voters a reason to vote for you and a compelling narrative and story to motivate them with.

Debater
NorthReport

It's over.

SP already leading 20 seats to 5 seats with 60% of the vote going to SP

SP now leading 35 seats to 10 seats

Libs & Grns battling it out for last place

robbie_dee

Cam Broten is currently trailing by 200 votes in his own constituency with just over 40% of polls in. 

robbie_dee

Broten is still down by 134 votes with 10 polls left. 

Debater

SASKATOON WESTVIEW

55 of 62 polls

Cam Broten is now trailing by only 82 votes.

http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/saskatchewan/dashboard/

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

Close race in Regina Pasqua, with Heather McIntyre (NDP) ahead by 23 votes. (Following that race because I've known Heather since elementary school and she's good people)

bekayne

Debater wrote:

SASKATOON WESTVIEW

55 of 62 polls

Cam Broten is now trailing by only 82 votes.

http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/saskatchewan/dashboard/

Down by 29; 58 of 62 polls

robbie_dee

Even assuming Broten pulls out a victory in his riding in the end, is there any way he can stay on as leader after this debacle?

jerrym

With all polls reporting, Broten has lost by 123 votes (3,329 to 3,206), so I expect that there will be a new leader. 

The Saskatchewan Party is elected in 48 and leading in 3, while the NDP is elected in 10 - a net gain of only one, despite the addition of 3 new ridings.

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/2615932/saskatchewan-election-results-2016-a-l...

jerrym

double post

Wilf Day

So, gender balance:
Danielle Chartier
Cathy Sproule
Carla Beck (new)
Nicole Rancourt (new)
Nicole Sarauer (new)
Trent Wotherspoon
Buckley Belanger
David Forbes
Warren McCall 
Doyle Vermette 

Misfit Misfit's picture

And Canada lost to team USA in women's hockey in overtime.

Aristotleded24

This certainly isn't going to help out Broten's provincial counterparts one province east. The one upshot I can see is that these results give credence to the argument that change is necessary federally.

Hunky_Monkey

Ken Burch wrote:

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.

The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.

Ah, yes... they weren't left enough so voters flocked to Brad Wall.  Gotcha!  

Aristotleded24

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.

The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.

Ah, yes... they weren't left enough so voters flocked to Brad Wall.  Gotcha!

Actually, just under half of the voting public in Saskatchewan couldn't be bothered to care. There's a certain segment of the population that benefits from Wall's policies, everyone else has essentially given up on the political process because it has failed them.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.

The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.

Ah, yes... they weren't left enough so voters flocked to Brad Wall.  Gotcha!  

Anyone else the NDP could have chosen as leader would have inspired greater turnout.  Any increase in turnout will help the most progressive party in the race.

Cam Broten was the most right-wing leader the SNDP could ever have chosen.  He ran on the most right-wing program the SNDP could possibly have chosen.  There are no issues at all on which the SNDP could move any further right from where it is now and still be distinguishable from the Saskatories.

It's not as though they'd have done better by supporting furthern weakening unions, bashing "welfare mothers" or treating FN's as a "special interest group" that needs to be put in its place.  Or by promising to out-cut Brad Wall.

So no, you have nothing to be smug about here.  Nothing that happened tonight validates your "lefties are losers" attitude.

Unionist

Aristotleded24 wrote:

This certainly isn't going to help out Broten's provincial counterparts one province east. The one upshot I can see is that these results give credence to the argument that change is necessary federally.

Cam Broten for federal NDP leader? Interesting.

swallow

Yes! I'm throwing inthe towel. Cam is the only person in Canada young enough and dynamic enough to save the NDP. He's Trudeau kryptonite. Joy Taylor will love him. He can attract the 500% of NDP voters who supported Rob Ford. As Adam Giambrone says, politics isn't en entry-level position. With Broten in the leader's seat, for Justin Trudeau, IT'S OVER. 

terrytowel

swallow wrote:

Yes! I'm throwing inthe towel. Cam is the only person in Canada young enough and dynamic enough to save the NDP. He's Trudeau kryptonite. Joy Taylor will love him. He can attract the 500% of NDP voters who supported Rob Ford. As Adam Giambrone says, politics isn't en entry-level position. With Broten in the leader's seat, for Justin Trudeau, IT'S OVER. 

My hats off to you for this post that crams almost all of my talking points!

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

I don't think the problem was all Broten, although he has some responsibility for the loss. The bigger problem is Saskatchewan itself. There is just a very small minority of people there who are attracted to the left now. My Saskatchewan died somewhere around the previous election and had been gravely ill after the one before that.

Misfit Misfit's picture

This was the most apathetic election in Saskatchewan that I have ever witnessed, and that was not a good omen. And everyone, Ryan Meillie is NOT the messiah of the Saskatchewan NDP. Cam Broten was the least horrible leadership candidate from a very poor list of leadership hopefuls.

Misfit Misfit's picture

They are likely going to pick Trent Wotherspoon as the next leader since he has a seat in the Legislature, and he will continue the horrible trend for the NDP.

swallow

terrytowel wrote:

swallow wrote:

Yes! I'm throwing inthe towel. Cam is the only person in Canada young enough and dynamic enough to save the NDP. He's Trudeau kryptonite. Joy Taylor will love him. He can attract the 500% of NDP voters who supported Rob Ford. As Adam Giambrone says, politics isn't en entry-level position. With Broten in the leader's seat, for Justin Trudeau, IT'S OVER. 

My hats off to you for this post that crams almost all of my talking points!

Almost? Did I miss one? Damn. 

NDP losing rural and small-town seats with massive margins suggests that this is a party with no road back to power visible for a generation. In which case, maybe try promoting good policy? Brad Wall called for a strong opposition that brought ideas to the table and would hold him responsible. The NDP could try to do that, maybe.  

Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

This certainly isn't going to help out Broten's provincial counterparts one province east. The one upshot I can see is that these results give credence to the argument that change is necessary federally.

But do the Saskatchewan results really reflect on Mulcair?

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

swallow wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

swallow wrote:

Yes! I'm throwing inthe towel. Cam is the only person in Canada young enough and dynamic enough to save the NDP. He's Trudeau kryptonite. Joy Taylor will love him. He can attract the 500% of NDP voters who supported Rob Ford. As Adam Giambrone says, politics isn't en entry-level position. With Broten in the leader's seat, for Justin Trudeau, IT'S OVER. 

My hats off to you for this post that crams almost all of my talking points!

Almost? Did I miss one? Damn. 

NDP losing rural and small-town seats with massive margins suggests that this is a party with no road back to power visible for a generation. In which case, maybe try promoting good policy? Brad Wall called for a strong opposition that brought ideas to the table and would hold him responsible. The NDP could try to do that, maybe.  

With 10 seats? Best you can do with that is piss into the wind.

Emboldened by a third term and another massive majority, this will be the point where the right-wing stuff really ramps up.

Very glad I'm not in SK anymore.

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

Debater wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

This certainly isn't going to help out Broten's provincial counterparts one province east. The one upshot I can see is that these results give credence to the argument that change is necessary federally.

But do the Saskatchewan results really reflect on Mulcair?

I don't think they do.

quizzical

Timebandit wrote:

swallow wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

swallow wrote:

Yes! I'm throwing inthe towel. Cam is the only person in Canada young enough and dynamic enough to save the NDP. He's Trudeau kryptonite. Joy Taylor will love him. He can attract the 500% of NDP voters who supported Rob Ford. As Adam Giambrone says, politics isn't en entry-level position. With Broten in the leader's seat, for Justin Trudeau, IT'S OVER. 

My hats off to you for this post that crams almost all of my talking points!

Almost? Did I miss one? Damn. 

NDP losing rural and small-town seats with massive margins suggests that this is a party with no road back to power visible for a generation. In which case, maybe try promoting good policy? Brad Wall called for a strong opposition that brought ideas to the table and would hold him responsible. The NDP could try to do that, maybe.  

With 10 seats? Best you can do with that is piss into the wind.

Emboldened by a third term and another massive majority, this will be the point where the right-wing stuff really ramps up.

Very glad I'm not in SK anymore.

look what is to come in MN with Harper's student going to be Premier though. gah

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

MB's not done yet.

wage zombie

Timebandit wrote:
I don't think the problem was all Broten, although he has some responsibility for the loss. The bigger problem is Saskatchewan itself. There is just a very small minority of people there who are attracted to the left now. My Saskatchewan died somewhere around the previous election and had been gravely ill after the one before that.

I remember how unsatisfied you were with Lingenfelter, so I appreciate hearing what you think of Broten.  Sounds like you don't think a bolder candidate would've been more likely to do any better.

Quote:

MB's not done yet.

Is there a chance the NDP stays in power?  What would need to happen?  Sounds like the Liberals aren't gaining traction.

jerrym

Wage Zombie wrote:

Quote:

MB's not done yet.

Quote:

Is there a chance the NDP stays in power?  What would need to happen?  Sounds like the Liberals aren't gaining traction.

 

The most recent poll is showing a decline in Liberal support in Winnipeg of 3% with the NDP and PCs gaining 3% each. Since the poll was done from March 26 to April 3 before many of the above problems were known to the public, future polls are likely to show a further decline.

i therefore think that the NDP is likely to finish a solid second well behind the PCs, but well ahead of the sinking, chaotic Liberfals, who had two candidates and chief of staff resign at the beginning of March, then had 4 candidates turned down by Elections Manitoba because they did not fill in their papers properly and another one because she violated Manitoba law by being involved in voter enumeration, followed by the removal of another candidate for assaulting his wife. Since the last six candidates left after the final day for candidate registration, the Liberals are down six candidates. Because all of this occurred towards the end of the polling period, the full effect on the Liberals electoral chances is not far frin fully reflected in the Winnipeg poll. 

 

Quote:

A new poll released by a firm run by three Liberals suggests support for Rana Bokhari's party is on the decline in Winnipeg as election day nears.

Insight Manitoba polled a random sample of 3,454 Winnipeggersbetween March 26 and April 3 and found approval ratings for the Manitoba Liberal Party have slid by three percentage points in Winnipeg since the beginning of March. The party went from a 19 to 16 per cent approval rating in Winnipeg.

The drop coincides with a boost in support for the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats in the Winnipeg battleground. Support for the NDP inched up from 21 to 24 per cent; approval for a Brian Pallister-led government rose from 35 to 38 per cent. The Greens remained steady at five per cent, according to the poll.

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-liberal-support...

 

 

Wilf Day

Timebandit wrote:

With 10 seats? Best you can do with that is piss into the wind.

Well . . . in 1938 the Saskatchewan CCF won 10 seats.

At the next election in 1944 the CCF won 47 of the 52 seats.

Don't let them tell you it can't be done.

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Wilf Day wrote:

Timebandit wrote:

With 10 seats? Best you can do with that is piss into the wind.

Well . . . in 1938 the Saskatchewan CCF won 10 seats.

At the next election in 1944 the CCF won 47 of the 52 seats.

Don't let them tell you it can't be done.

Sure, if their next leader is a visionary like Tommy and the economy tanks and puts most people out of work.

swallow

If the party decides to be visionary and work with the many impressive social movements in Sask, it all becomes possible. 

It can even become possible without winning power, if the NDP wishes to ally with people working for social change in the province. 

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

wage zombie wrote:

Timebandit wrote:
I don't think the problem was all Broten, although he has some responsibility for the loss. The bigger problem is Saskatchewan itself. There is just a very small minority of people there who are attracted to the left now. My Saskatchewan died somewhere around the previous election and had been gravely ill after the one before that.

I remember how unsatisfied you were with Lingenfelter, so I appreciate hearing what you think of Broten.  Sounds like you don't think a bolder candidate would've been more likely to do any better.

Quote:

MB's not done yet.

Is there a chance the NDP stays in power?  What would need to happen?  Sounds like the Liberals aren't gaining traction.

Maybe a different leader would have improved their chances or brought about a few more seats, but the decision to run Lingenfelter annihilated the party. The old boys' club had been cleansing the party of any real competition for Lingenfelter for quite some time, so when it crashed and burned, there wasn't enough of a next generation of talented and experienced members to step up. It wasn't just that election, remember, it's the undercutting that had taken place before we ever got that far. Four years is simply not enough time to rebuild, regardless who the next leader was. There was never any question in my mind that the NDP couldn't win.

As to MB, well, I still hold out some hope for a minority government. Pallister is stupid and dangerous, hoping enough Manitobans agree with me. I just got settled in, I don't want to have to move again soon.

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

Wilf Day wrote:

Timebandit wrote:

With 10 seats? Best you can do with that is piss into the wind.

Well . . . in 1938 the Saskatchewan CCF won 10 seats.

At the next election in 1944 the CCF won 47 of the 52 seats.

Don't let them tell you it can't be done.

Maybe possible, but not probable.  As has already been pointed out, circumstances were significantly different.

But I think the really big difference is the personality of the place. Saskatchewan has gone through a massive personality change in the last 20 or so years, maybe more, starting slowly and then reaching a tipping point about 10 years ago. The people there are much more conservative than their parents and grandparents are, they don't buy into the cooperative, left-wing ideologies that really made SK different. I don't even recognize the SK I grew up in anymore.

Leftfield

The best recap of the situation in Saskatchewan once can find in the media right now is this:

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/brad-wall-is-saskatchewan-and-thats-why-h...'

My own take? There was an influential inner-circle in the NDP that was paranoid and shut down anyone who was an agent of change going back to at least the late Romanow years.  Good young NDP'ers didn't receive advice, guidance or support to really bloom into leaders and some of them got constant barriers and opposition thrown in their face at every turn.  Most of them are concentrating on careers and familiies now, and a lot are no longer active in politics.  I mean why bother? All of this evolved into an out-of-touch, irrelevant, and change-resistant political machine that didn't respond to an electorate that had gone through a major culture shift (the poor kids suddenly had some toys and candy and don't want to lose it).  Cam Broten failed, but he wasn't in a position to suceeed, and this started way before he was a major player.  If Broten disavows the old guard he probably wins his seat and a couple of others, all he has to say are things like "the cuts in the 90's to hospitals and small towns were wrong - don't connect me with that.  I'm my own man.".  The brass would never hear of that.  

The NDP needed to channel an early Barack Obama or a Bernie Sanders type campaign and they have been playing it super-safe.  The NDP playbook from the Romanow years needs to be totally thrown out.  Did anyone notice the University ridings in Regina and Saskatoon both voted Saskatchewan Party? I bet the NDP brass believed they had that vote locked up.  Twenty years ago, a campus voting conservative would have been unthinkable.  Today? You saw it happen.  Look at the map.  The areas civil servants and steelworkers live in Regina?  They voted Sask Party.  All the nouveau riche areas? Massive Sask Party wins.  

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