2014 Winnipeg municipal elections

199 posts / 0 new
Last post
The Analyst The Analyst's picture
2014 Winnipeg municipal elections

Well, Orlikow is weighing his options when it comes to running for mayor & was a vigorous critique of the city's latest budget. Orlikow is a red Liberal from River Heights and a consistent Katz critic from the left-leaning side of city council. Aside from JWL, he's the only left-leaning contender who's seriously mulling over a mayoral run in 2014. Most potential candidates seem to be from the right. 

So, your thoughts on the 2014 municipal elections? Will any council seats be in play? Who'll really be running for mayor? How will it all turn out?

Issues Pages: 
Regions: 
Aristotleded24

I'm quite happy to be represented by Councillor Orlikow. He is also likely the only mayoral candidate who will advocate to build rapid transit along the rail line where it belongs, where the other candidates will probably build the detour through Parker or not at all. I'm not sure how serious this is, and even so, I'm not sure Orlikow has the oomph! needed to run for the top job. I've heard that Fielding and Havixbeck on the right end of the spectrum are interested in running. Unfortunately, I could easily see Katz being re-elected. I don't see anything to indicate that Judy has learned her lessons from what went wrong in 2010, and I don't see that the left has done anything to reach out to the swing voters in the suburbs who decide elections in this town. As for council seats, someone will have to run in St. Boniface now that Vandal will step down to run for MP. Elmwood should be the easiest pick-up opportunity for the left, followed by Point Douglas. Unfortunately, I think the NDP will try and co-opt the same process that has not only failed outside of staunch-NDP wards, but will be even more challenged considering the battering the NDP brand has taken in the court of public opinion.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

 I don't see anything to indicate that Judy has learned her lessons from what went wrong in 2010, and I don't see that the left has done anything to reach out to the swing voters in the suburbs who decide elections in this town. 

Which particular suburbs do you think Judy will have to perform well in to win the mayoralty?

Aristotleded24

The Analyst wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

 I don't see anything to indicate that Judy has learned her lessons from what went wrong in 2010, and I don't see that the left has done anything to reach out to the swing voters in the suburbs who decide elections in this town. 

Which particular suburbs do you think Judy will have to perform well in to win the mayoralty?

I was particularly thinking of anything outside what I consider to be the NDP bubble of central and north Winnipeg. Basically anything outside of the areas that routinely elect NDP councillors with regularity.

genstrike

It sounds like from that article it's going to be Judy W-L again.  I probably won't vote, I don't think I voted for her last time.

I hope the NDP doesn't follow up with their disastrous attempt in 2010 to nominate councillors.  I don't think that worked for anyone, and the NDP is even less popular now after the PST debacle.

Harvey Smith is 77, I wonder if he will retire.  If so, it will be interesting to see who the left puts forward for his seat and how it all gets hashed out, given the gong-show of last time (where the NDP endorsed a different candidate seemingly to push him out, Harvey decided to run anyways and won, and the official NDP candidate came in 3rd).

It will be interesting to see how the establishment left in this city deals with Wyatt in Transcona.

I seem to remember Louise May didn't do too bad in St. Norbert last time, I wonder if that might be in play, especially given Swandel's recent erratic outbursts.

At the end of the day, someone's going to have to put forward a better vision for the city.  It's abundantly clear that the current city planning regime isn't working, and more efforts need to be put into transit and increasing density than into cookie-cutter $350K mini-mansions on the outskirts of town.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

genstrike wrote:

At the end of the day, someone's going to have to put forward a better vision for the city.  It's abundantly clear that the current city planning regime isn't working, and more efforts need to be put into transit and increasing density than into cookie-cutter $350K mini-mansions on the outskirts of town.

Gerbasi for mayor?

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

genstrike wrote:

It will be interesting to see how the establishment left in this city deals with Wyatt in Transcona.

Somebody has to stop that mad fiscal axman, with his crazy ass ideas like shutting down the Arlington Street bridge and axing inner-city services. There's enough class warfare against the working poor as is.

Aristotleded24

The Analyst wrote:

genstrike wrote:

At the end of the day, someone's going to have to put forward a better vision for the city.  It's abundantly clear that the current city planning regime isn't working, and more efforts need to be put into transit and increasing density than into cookie-cutter $350K mini-mansions on the outskirts of town.

Gerbasi for mayor?

I don't know that she's interested, for one. One thing that is in her favour should she run is that she has is the only sitting councillor who has been consistently after Katz' mis-steps. The one issue I have if she does run is that I'm not sure she would be able to connect with people who live outside of her area. Indeed, her backing the rapid transit line through the Parker wetlands is quite problematic and indicative of this thinking.

In terms of vision, I think planning should be the key plank. Lack of planning underpins every major problem this city faces, from urban poverty to urban decline to suburban sprawl to cracked streets to traffic congestion to rapid transit to lack of affordable housing to cost over-runs and the list goes on.

PrairieDemocrat15

How do Orlinkow and Judy W-L compare? Orlinkow is a Liberal, but his uncle was a prominant federal New Democrat. If they are fairly similar its probably best only one run to avoid vote splitting and capitalize on the the fact that the right seems to be fractured. Did Orlinow vote for the most recent city budget, which gives the YMCA tens of millions of dollars to build a rec centre and pool? Not only does that give the YMCA an advantage over other private rec and pool facilities, it burns money that the city could use to upgrade its own rec facilities.

Aristotleded24

I'm guessing that Judy and Orlikow would have pretty similar platforms, and Orlikow was critical of both the city budget and the YMCA deal. The one difference I can see (which is a huge issue for me) is that Judy will probably support the rapid transit detour, while Orlikow is in favour of going down the rail line. Indeed, without Orlikow I would have a hard time voting. I can see someone on the right advocating to cancel construction of the second phase of rapid transit and being absolutely horrible on every other city issue, or someone on the left having an otherwise soild platform except pushing a flawed alignment for rapid transit that can only alienate people and further discredit the idea of rapid transit throughout the rest of the city.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Did Orlinow vote for the most recent city budget, which gives the YMCA tens of millions of dollars to build a rec centre and pool? Not only does that give the YMCA an advantage over other private rec and pool facilities, it burns money that the city could use to upgrade its own rec facilities.

 

Orlikow voted against the capital and operating budgets.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Bartley Kives wrote:

Orlikow, a former school trustee, was first elected to council during a 2009 byelection in River Heights-Fort Garry. A left-of-centre Liberal, he soon became a critic of Mayor Sam Katz, spurred on in part by what he believed to be the mayor’s support of rival River Heights candidate Michael Kowalson in the 2010 general election.

In recent weeks, Orlikow has signalled a potential run by issuing more press releases critical of the mayor. He also wound up on the receiving end of a Katz counter-attack at Tuesday’s council debate over the 2014 budget.

After Orlikow criticized the coming round of city tax and fee hikes, Katz noted the city kept taxes frozen while the Winnipeg School Division hiked taxes during Orlikow’s time as a school trustee.

"It’s nice to blame everyone else all the time, but I haven’t seen any solutions," Orlikow said Wednesday of Katz’s administration, which he accused of concentrating too much power in the mayor’s hands and pursuing a privatization agenda based on ideology instead of a sound business plan.

Orlikow said he is all but certain Katz will seek a fourth term in office next year. An Orlikow mayoral candidacy, however, may pose less of a threat to Katz than it would to the only other left-of-centre candidate mulling a mayoral run, Judy Wasylycia-Leis, the former NDP MP and MLA who finished second to Katz in the 2010 mayoral race.

 

 

 

From The Freep

jas

One could compile quite a list of crap that Katz has caused for Winnipeg through stupidity or lack of action. I would like to see a community-based to start, aggressive campaign that pulls no punches in terms of how bad he is for the city, and everything he's done wrong or things he should have done but hasn't. I think it needs to be nasty and truthful. Nothing less is going to wake up the zombie-drones in the suburbs. I think the message right out of the gate should be that it's time to get rid of Katz. And after that, start a positive campaign that gives people a solid, no-brainer alternative to vote for.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

jas wrote:

One could compile quite a list of crap that Katz has caused for Winnipeg through stupidity or lack of action. I would like to see a community-based to start, aggressive campaign that pulls no punches in terms of how bad he is for the city, and everything he's done wrong or things he should have done but hasn't. I think it needs to be nasty and truthful. Nothing less is going to wake up the zombie-drones in the suburbs. I think the message right out of the gate should be that it's time to get rid of Katz. And after that, start a positive campaign that gives people a solid, no-brainer alternative to vote for.

Agreed.

Judy may have given more critiques than proposals, but her campagin was nowhere near hard-hitting and specific enough to truly paint the pseudo-populist Sam Katz as an incompetent in the publics' eyes.

PrairieDemocrat15

Orlinkow and JWL both seem like decent, progressive candidates. Of course, at this point, almost anyone is better than Sammy.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

John Orlikow on the budget (Nov. 29, 2013):

John Orlikow wrote:

Sam Katz's Budget Fails Winnipeggers Once Again

November 29, 2013 – Today the 2014 Sam Katz budget was released and once again the Mayor has failed Winnipeggers. The 2014 Capital and Operating Budgets for the City of Winnipeg raises taxes, increases debt and reduces services. It is representative of the continued failure of Mayor Sam Katz to manage Winnipeg's finances.

This budget also increases property taxes. It adds, yet again, to the over $600.00 in increased taxes and fees a Winnipeg household has seen in the last four years while increasing the amount of debt our future generations will be responsible for paying.

Today's budget will decrease the services Winnipeggers need and deserve but does not directly state which services will be reduced, cut or completely taken away from Winnipeggers.

Mayor Sam Katz's budget also includes misleading pre-budget announcements for special projects which have been determined by the Mayor without any consultation. This budget has allocated money for suburban mega recreational centers instead of investing in our existing local community centers.

While today's budget does include funding for the Southwest Bus Rapid Transit, it does not include how The City of Winnipeg will pay for it and does not present accurate financial numbers. This opens the door to the potential of yet another Fire Hall / Police Station debacle. 

In the coming days Councillor Orlikow will provide a further break down of both budgets. The difficulty for all Winnipeggers is that these documents must be assessed, analyzed and questioned within a two week time frame of release. 

One thing is certain, with the release of today's 2014 Capital and Operating Budgets, Mayor Sam Katz has once again proven he is incapable of managing the finances of the City of Winnipeg.

 

Orlikow also offers prolific commentary on the issues and news sections of his site. Seems like he's taking Katz head on.

Aristotleded24

Something interesting about Orlikow's ward. This is the same ward that elected Donald Benham. It also elected Garth Steek and Brenda Leipsic. It includes the conservative LindenWoods, and is home of the PC Leader and also the province's only Liberal MLA. In other words, it swings pretty wildly. I wonder if Orlikow is a bridge who can connect the kind of city we want for Winnipeg with what average suburbanites outside Elmwood, the central portion, or the North End are thinking, and perhaps he is a bridge in a way that Gerbasi or Judy cannot be.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Something interesting about Orlikow's ward. This is the same ward that elected Donald Benham. It also elected Garth Steek and Brenda Leipsic. It includes the conservative LindenWoods, and is home of the PC Leader and also the province's only Liberal MLA. In other words, it swings pretty wildly. I wonder if Orlikow is a bridge who can connect the kind of city we want for Winnipeg with what average suburbanites outside Elmwood, the central portion, or the North End are thinking, and perhaps he is a bridge in a way that Gerbasi or Judy cannot be.

 

Probably have to analyze the riding level polling results a little better, but part of me thinks that low turnout, a lack of evident ideological identifiers for City Council candidates (unless the Dippers endorse you, that is) and social liberals in River Heights outvoting the more outer suburban neighbourhoods would contribute to his wins.

eric johnson

Wow! A poster mentioned that Harvey Smith is 77 and still on council. Great! Thirty years ago I covered city hall for Wpg Sun (in its early post-Trib incarnation) and Harvey was one of my faves. Courageous and dedicated. Re-elect Harvey!

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

eric johnson wrote:

Wow! A poster mentioned that Harvey Smith is 77 and still on council. Great! Thirty years ago I covered city hall for Wpg Sun (in its early post-Trib incarnation) and Harvey was one of my faves. Courageous and dedicated. Re-elect Harvey!

 

What'd you do when the wingnuts took over the Sun?

Aristotleded24

The Analyst wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Something interesting about Orlikow's ward. This is the same ward that elected Donald Benham. It also elected Garth Steek and Brenda Leipsic. It includes the conservative LindenWoods, and is home of the PC Leader and also the province's only Liberal MLA. In other words, it swings pretty wildly. I wonder if Orlikow is a bridge who can connect the kind of city we want for Winnipeg with what average suburbanites outside Elmwood, the central portion, or the North End are thinking, and perhaps he is a bridge in a way that Gerbasi or Judy cannot be.

 

Probably have to analyze the riding level polling results a little better, but part of me thinks that low turnout, a lack of evident ideological identifiers for City Council candidates (unless the Dippers endorse you, that is) and social liberals in River Heights outvoting the more outer suburban neighbourhoods would contribute to his wins.

Orlikow's opponent in 2010 was quite known for his affiliation with the right wing, to the point that people on the doorsteps mentioned this when I was doing drops for him.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture
janfromthebruce

Wasylycia-Leis strong in survey Katz tanks in test of mayoral field

It appears Sam Katz has worn out his welcome.

And Judy Wasylycia-Leis could easily take his place at city hall.

Those are the findings of a Winnipeg Free Press/Probe Research Inc. city-wide survey showing Katz's core support at nine per cent while Wasylycia-Leis has the support of 45 per cent of Winnipeggers.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

Wasylycia-Leis strong in survey Katz tanks in test of mayoral field

It appears Sam Katz has worn out his welcome.

And Judy Wasylycia-Leis could easily take his place at city hall.

Those are the findings of a Winnipeg Free Press/Probe Research Inc. city-wide survey showing Katz's core support at nine per cent while Wasylycia-Leis has the support of 45 per cent of Winnipeggers.

Hope Probe has a likely vs unlikely voters model.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Detailed brakedown.

Judy does well in the Northeast (48%), Northwest (49%), and Core (70%) areas and among the 55 plus crowd (53% - which is good, as old people turn out to vote at higher rates). If see increased her support 6 percentage points she'd have a lock on the mayoralty in any field.

Gord Steeves performs a solid 59% in southeast Winnipeg. 

She's really dominating the core & it's somewhat interesting, as I've also been following the Toronto mayoral race a little - where another member of the club of past or present NDP MPs (Olivia Chow) is running. Same pattern of solid support in the central city holds for Chow in Toronto, which is surprising given how much more genetrified TO's downtown is, while her average supporter is classified as making less than $100K/yr (while hard-right Rob Ford's  average supporter has a household income below $40K/yr). In Winnipeg, by contrast, Judy draws strong support among low income households (58%) - Probe doesn't list support by income for the other candidates.

Aristotleded24

Thinking about it, as things stand right now, I would probably support Orlikow over Judy, even if it were to split the vote and elect a right-winger. For one, Orlikow has a good position on rapid transit, while I can imagine that Judy would simply go along with the detour. But more importantly, Orlikow has been at the council table, he has a solid voting record, and he knows very well what is going on at City Hall. I'm not really sure what Judy's been up to for the last 3 years, I'm not sure if she has learned anything from the disastrous 2010 campaign, and I don't get the sense that she has any strategy beyond coasting on, "I'm Judy and everybody likes me, so vote for me."

Of course, that poll doesn't take into account the speculation around Orlikow, so we don't know how that will play out should it come to pass.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Good to know John Orlikow is pro-snow clearing. Probably not that unpopular in Winnipeg, but given an EPC dominated by the likes of fiscal axman Russ Wyatt & Sam Katz, supporting basic municipal public services is something. 

 

Winnipeg councillor not happy over residential plowing delay (CBC)

Winnipeggers hoping their residential street will be plowed sometime soon will have to wait quite a bit longer.

The city has said it won’t plow residential streets after a massive snowfall blanketed the city in snow and ice on Saturday.

...

For City Coun. John Orlikow, the news is unacceptable, and he can’t understand why the small amount of snow on Friday would delay residential plowing.

“There is no excuse [for] why we’re waiting in my opinion,” said Orlikow. “We should be going full bore ahead getting those streets as safe as they can.”

In the meantime, crews are out on major routes sanding on Tuesday but planning to start scraping on Wednesday night.

 

 

 

Aristotleded24

Yeah, it always blows my mind how in a city that is under snow for half the year that it always manages to plough through the snow removal budget by the end of November.

Aristotleded24
Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Judy-Wasylycia-Leis-favour... have another poll:[/url]

Quote:
The new Insightrix poll places Wasylycia-Leis at the head of a field of seven candidates, with former St. Vital Coun. Gord Steeves in second place at 17 per cent. Katz stood third at 12 per cent, Charleswood-Tuxedo Coun. Paula Havixbeck was fourth at nine per cent and Orlikow, St. James-Brooklands Coun. Scott Fielding and lawyer Brian Bowman each enjoyed six per cent.

CJOB said the Insightrix poll involved a survey of 600 adults in late January. The station said the results have a 4.35-percentage-point margin of error and a 95 per cent accuracy.

Aristotleded24

Paging other Winnipeggers, how do you think the rapid transit fiasco is going to play out in this election? 3 candidates have already openly disagreed with the alignment (Orlikow wants to go down the rail line whereas Havixbeck and Fielding want to stop it altogether) and I think that Katz is the only one who will defend the detour.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Paging other Winnipeggers, how do you think the rapid transit fiasco is going to play out in this election? 3 candidates have already openly disagreed with the alignment (Orlikow wants to go down the rail line whereas Havixbeck and Fielding want to stop it altogether) and I think that Katz is the only one who will defend the detour.

One (cheap) rapid transit line is just too big of thinking for some Winnipeggers, I guess.

 

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Paging other Winnipeggers, how do you think the rapid transit fiasco is going to play out in this election? 3 candidates have already openly disagreed with the alignment (Orlikow wants to go down the rail line whereas Havixbeck and Fielding want to stop it altogether) and I think that Katz is the only one who will defend the detour.

One (cheap) rapid transit line is just too big of thinking for some Winnipeggers, I guess.

Problem is, if the detour goes through, that's actually a degradation of service along Pembina. All the express routes are going to be pulled off Pembina Highway and go onto the transitway, which means you're going to have express buses going to stations nobody is going to use that are so far out of the way, whereas residents and businesses along Pembina will be stuck with buses that literally have to stop every block while fighting rush-hour traffic.

Don't forget that for people right along Pembina (especially the east side) taking buses off of Pembina and even running them along the rail line is a compromise in service right there. And people who live on Pembina between Jubilee and Osborne Station are still upset about the loss of direct service from the buses that have been pulled off the street along that portion.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Fielding-says-rapid-transit-money... I suspected....[/url]

Quote:
Scott Fielding revived his campaign against bus rapid transit this morning, calling on the public to demand money be spent on roads instead.

Fielding, the St. James-Brooklands councillor who no longer lives in the ward, said the $600 million set aside for the second phase of the bus rapid transit corridor would be better spent on road repairs, new roads and expressways.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture
The Analyst The Analyst's picture
jas

Apparently available at Urban Waves.

Aristotleded24

I hate to say this, but I believe that the left will not prevail in October, and may even do worse than in 2010. Nominations are officially open, and remember that by this time in 2010, Judy had already declared. She has not in this campaign as of yet, and given the polling numbers and the fact that Orlikow is no longer in the race, I don't know what's holding her back. I really get the sense that she wants to run on a "we-love-Judy-isn't-she-great?" platform without anything in the way of substance, and is hoping to coast to the top job on her currently strong polling numbers. Yes, she's in the lead now, but only because the other end of the spectrum is currently divided and disorganized, and it's quite probable that a strong campaign, along with a couple candidates dropping out of the race, might change things.

Aristotleded24

Things just keep getting worse. Havixbeck and Steeves are now both officially in the race, and Havixbeck had a [url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Havixbeck-pledges-to-improve-more... in the Free Press[/url] about improving roads. Why hasn't Judy formally declared already? There's nobody else from the left end of the spectrum who is considered to be running. My only guess is that a core of Judy's team are still angry over having lost the 2010 election and want to fight that again without regard for how the ground has changed since then, and I get the sense that they want to ride the right-wing vote split without having to do any actual work. Remember that the poll that has her in the lead has her with the same level of support she received in 2010, so while it looks good because the right end of the spectrum is divided (with or without Katz) it's still very plausible that she could be beaten, and at this stage it's quite likely.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/Labour-Counci... council endorsements are out[/url]

I'm quite surprised that the labour council didn't also endorse Harvey Smith and John Orlikow. Smith hasn't commited to running again so we don't know, but what does the labour council have against Orlikow? He has a rock solid voting record (his voting record is actually slightly better than Brian Mayes, who was endorsed) and he is very familiar with the issues.

Stockholm

I see that Jason Schreyer - son of Ed Schreyer - is running for city council in Elmwood against a very damaged Conservative incumbent Thomas Steen who i think was arrested recently.

Is that necessarily the final word on endorsements by the labour council or could they endorse more people later as the field of contenders in various wards shapes up?

Aristotleded24
genstrike

Aristotleded24 wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the labour council didn't also endorse Harvey Smith

Why is that surprising?  They endorsed one of his opponents last time.

Aristotleded24

So thus far, the elected representatives of the current administration who are standing down include:

  • Sam Katz
  • Dan Vandal
  • Scott Fielding
  • Justin Swandel

The easiest of these for the left to take in the 2014 election is St. Boniface. The Mayor's chair is now open. What about St. Norbert and St. James? Louise May ran a strong campaign against Swandel in 2010, but without her, will anyone else have a chance? What about St. James? This is Jae Eadie's old seat, and he only lost when Fielding took him down, and this seat stayed right-wing even through the Glen Murray Years. Elmwood is also low-hanging fruit, and the left should put in a strong effort in Point Douglas for sure.

So to recap: The seats currently held by the left include:

  • St. Vital (Mayes)
  • River Heights-East Fort Gary (Orlikow)
  • Daniel Macintyre (Smith)
  • Fort Rouge-Fort Gary (Gerbasi)
  • Mynarski (Eadie)

And the spots they could pick up include:

  • Mayor
  • St Boniface
  • Elmwood

That gives them just enough to control council, now add in:

  • St. Norbert
  • St. James
  • Old Kildonan
  • Transcona

So of 16 seats, that gives the left a range of seats between 5 (assuming Orlikow is re-elected) and 12.

Any thoughts?

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/Labour-Counci... council endorsements are out[/url]

I'm quite surprised that the labour council didn't also endorse Harvey Smith and John Orlikow. Smith hasn't commited to running again so we don't know, but what does the labour council have against Orlikow? He has a rock solid voting record (his voting record is actually slightly better than Brian Mayes, who was endorsed) and he is very familiar with the issues.

Isn't he a Liberal? I know he has a progressive voting record, but his affliation with the party of Bay Street may stain his image in the eyes of the Labour Council.

genstrike

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Isn't he a Liberal? I know he has a progressive voting record, but his affliation with the party of Bay Street may stain his image in the eyes of the Labour Council.

I don't think it's that clear-cut.

Dan Vandal was endorsed by Labour Council last time, and he's running for the party of Bay Street in the next federal election.

Harvey Smith has a progressive voting record and is (or at least, last time I heard, was) affiliated with the party of Broadway, and failed to get their endorsement this time and last time.

Also, wasn't it Orlikow who either last election or during his initial by-election win, sought the endorsement of the WLC only to make a big media show of turning it down to show that he's not in the pockets of organized labour (but they're still welcome to lend volunteers and cash to his campaign)?

ghoris

Yes, Russ Wyatt managed Steve Ashton's campaign for the leadership, but Russ is hard to pigeonhole and defies left/right labels. I think the best description would be 'populist' and his support base is strongest among blue-collar types who read the Winnipeg Sun and who have historically voted NDP provincially but are increasingly voting Conservative federally. Rumour has it he quietly supported the federal runs of Thomas Steen and Lawrence Toet from the sidelines (more Machiavellian minds have suggested that he wanted Maloway defeated so he could secure the federal nomination for himself).

Russ is 'left' on some issues and quite 'right' on others, but I think the main reason he did not get the endorsement is that he has always had a very uneasy relationship with the NDP and Labour Council going back to his last-minute withdrawal from the council race in 1998 which left the NDP/Labour Council high and dry and without a candidate. Since then, I don't think he's ever had a Labour Council or NDP endorsement, but I stand to be corrected on that.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/Labour-Counci... council endorsements are out[/url]

I'm quite surprised that the labour council didn't also endorse Harvey Smith and John Orlikow. Smith hasn't commited to running again so we don't know, but what does the labour council have against Orlikow? He has a rock solid voting record (his voting record is actually slightly better than Brian Mayes, who was endorsed) and he is very familiar with the issues.

Isn't he a Liberal? I know he has a progressive voting record, but his affliation with the party of Bay Street may stain his image in the eyes of the Labour Council.

He is a Liberal, but his focus has been on school board and municipal politics. His voting record is very solid. Mayes (who is NDP) started out really good, but started to waver when he was chosen for EPC, the same way Vandal did.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

So thus far, the elected representatives of the current administration who are standing down include:

  • Sam Katz
  • Dan Vandal
  • Scott Fielding
  • Justin Swandel

The easiest of these for the left to take in the 2014 election is St. Boniface. The Mayor's chair is now open. What about St. Norbert and St. James? Louise May ran a strong campaign against Swandel in 2010, but without her, will anyone else have a chance? What about St. James? This is Jae Eadie's old seat, and he only lost when Fielding took him down, and this seat stayed right-wing even through the Glen Murray Years. Elmwood is also low-hanging fruit, and the left should put in a strong effort in Point Douglas for sure.

So to recap: The seats currently held by the left include:

  • St. Vital (Mayes)
  • River Heights-East Fort Gary (Orlikow)
  • Daniel Macintyre (Smith)
  • Fort Rouge-Fort Gary (Gerbasi)
  • Mynarski (Eadie)

And the spots they could pick up include:

  • Mayor
  • St Boniface
  • Elmwood

That gives them just enough to control council, now add in:

  • St. Norbert
  • St. James
  • Old Kildonan
  • Transcona

So of 16 seats, that gives the left a range of seats between 5 (assuming Orlikow is re-elected) and 12.

Any thoughts?

What about North Kildonan?

Also, what's the deal with Russ Wyatt? Katz put him on the EPC, but he has opposed several of Katz' initatives. He has advocated spending cust and service redcutions, but he was Steve Ashton's leadership campaign manager. Is he a New Democrat? Is he a lefty or a rightist?

PrairieDemocrat15

ghoris wrote:

Yes, Russ Wyatt managed Steve Ashton's campaign for the leadership, but Russ is hard to pigeonhole and defies left/right labels. I think the best description would be 'populist' and his support base is strongest among blue-collar types who read the Winnipeg Sun and who have historically voted NDP provincially but are increasingly voting Conservative federally. Rumour has it he quietly supported the federal runs of Thomas Steen and Lawrence Toet from the sidelines (more Machiavellian minds have suggested that he wanted Maloway defeated so he could secure the federal nomination for himself).

Russ is 'left' on some issues and quite 'right' on others, but I think the main reason he did not get the endorsement is that he has always had a very uneasy relationship with the NDP and Labour Council going back to his last-minute withdrawal from the council race in 1998 which left the NDP/Labour Council high and dry and without a candidate. Since then, I don't think he's ever had a Labour Council or NDP endorsement, but I stand to be corrected on that.

Just like to point out that NDP numbers in Elmwood-Transcona in the 2011 loss were only about 5 pp below the heyday of the Bill Blaikie era. The federal NDP vote in northeast Winnipeg hasn't declined so much as the non-NDP vote has coalesced around the Conservatives. I mean, in 2011 the Liberals won 3% of the vote, compared to their 35-20 per cent in the late 1980's and early 1990's

ghoris

Good point. Maloway got roughly 45% of the vote in 2008 and 2011, but in 2011 the Liberal vote collapsed to about 5% which allowed the Tories to edge out the NDP by about 300 votes. Still, Bill was always good for at least 50%, except for the close call of 1993 where he only beat the Liberal candidate by a couple hundred votes.  

I do still believe that there is a certain blue collar 'swing vote' that leans NDP provincially but is willing to vote Conservative federally. When I was living in Manitoba in the 90s, I remember being dumbfounded at the number of provincial NDP supporters willing to vote Reform federally - again, the 'populist' angle. When you think about it, it's pretty astounding that when the NDP had its best election ever, it lost one of the nine seats it held in the 1993 debacle (even Vancouver East went Liberal that year).

Incidentally, Daniel Blaikie (son of Bill) won the federal NDP nomination for Elmwood-Transcona last night over Jim Maloway. I wonder if Maloway will re-offer provincially in Elmwood? Recent comments in the media suggested he was not interested in continuing to serve at the provincial level and was just biding his time to make the jump back to federal politics.

But back to municipal politics: the mayor's race will be very interesting. I suspect that much of JWL's support is squishy-soft and much of it was an 'anti-Katz' rather than 'pro-JWL' vote. I suspect that now there is no danger of Katz being re-elected, some anti-Katz voters might be more willing to give some of the other candidates a look. I will be curious to see how things shake out in the first post-Katz poll.

Much as I would love to see Jeff Browaty lose in North Kildonan, I think it is a real longshot at best. He's pretty well established there and he has the Rossmere/River East PC machine behind him. He beat an incumbent councillor fairly handily in 2006, so unless he's done something to piss people off (like Mark Lubosch did with the traffic calming measures and road closures) Browaty should be safe. He's just biding his time until Bonnie Mitchelson retires anyways.

Pages