2014 Winnipeg municipal elections

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Stockholm

ghoris wrote:

Incidentally, Daniel Blaikie (son of Bill) won the federal NDP nomination for Elmwood-Transcona last night over Jim Maloway.

YAY!!!!!

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
I suspect that much of JWL's support is squishy-soft and much of it was an 'anti-Katz' rather than 'pro-JWL' vote. I suspect that now there is no danger of Katz being re-elected, some anti-Katz voters might be more willing to give some of the other candidates a look. I will be curious to see how things shake out in the first post-Katz poll.

First off, there were polls taken both with Katz on and off the ballot, and Judy came far ahead in every single one.

My sense is that it's the same core group of "we-love-Judy-isn't-she-great" people who came out for her the last time. I don't imagine that she has that much to lose among this crowd, but I've repeated my fear that they think Judy can slide in on her name recognition and popularity without doing much work.

Man, I wish Orlikow hadn't backed out!

ghoris

Well, you're closer to the action on the ground than me, but I had the impression a lot of JWL's vote last time (certainly among my friends, relatives and acquaintances) was an anti-Sam Katz vote rather than a pro-JWL vote. With Katz out, JWL becomes the de facto 'incumbent' because she has the most name recognition and came a relatively close second last time. I'm not convinced that her numbers are going to hold up if one or more of the other candidates is able to boost their profile and name recognition, and people start to take a closer look at the choices on offer.

One thing, though, that I think we are agreed on is that JWL needs to explain what exactly it is she stands for and how she will do things differently than Katz and the rest of the pro-developer crowd that have been running the show at City Hall for most of the last 30 years. Otherwise she runs the risk of looking like just another 'business-as-usual', career politician running for mayor with no real plan.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
One thing, though, that I think we are agreed on is that JWL needs to explain what exactly it is she stands for and how she will do things differently than Katz and the rest of the pro-developer crowd that have been running the show at City Hall for most of the last 30 years. Otherwise she runs the risk of looking like just another 'business-as-usual', career politician running for mayor with no real plan.

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/wasylycia-leis-stresses-clarity-2...

Quote:
For now, Wasylycia-Leis has the upper hand. In the first go-around, she was the newcomer to municipal politics, an upstart who entered the race well behind a popular incumbent.

This time around, she enters the race as the presumptive front-runner who may, or may not, have to fight the potent presence of an incumbent.

Still, all that does not add up to an election victory in a race that will see some old familiar faces, and some new, intriguing ones. Wasylycia-Leis will still have to produce a campaign substantially better than in 2010 to win this time.

Although she has owned up to mistakes in 2010, Wasylycia-Leis still had several built-in excuses, from her own inexperience to Katz's switch-and-bait on property taxes.

This time around, none of those excuses exist. She will either win this race or confirm that voters made the right decision in 2010.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ghoris wrote:
I suspect that much of JWL's support is squishy-soft and much of it was an 'anti-Katz' rather than 'pro-JWL' vote. I suspect that now there is no danger of Katz being re-elected, some anti-Katz voters might be more willing to give some of the other candidates a look. I will be curious to see how things shake out in the first post-Katz poll.

First off, there were polls taken both with Katz on and off the ballot, and Judy came far ahead in every single one.

My sense is that it's the same core group of "we-love-Judy-isn't-she-great" people who came out for her the last time. I don't imagine that she has that much to lose among this crowd, but I've repeated my fear that they think Judy can slide in on her name recognition and popularity without doing much work.

Man, I wish Orlikow hadn't backed out!

Why? To split the left-leaning vote and loose a good councillor?

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/City-councillors-taking-extra-tim..., the word is now out:[/url]

Quote:
A damning audit of Winnipeg real-estate transactions has been met with criticism, praise and confusion, both inside and outside city hall.

At the behest of city council, consulting firm EY examined 33 Winnipeg real-estate transactions from 2006 to 2012 and paid particular attention to three transactions in 2009 — the $29.25-million acquisition of the Canada Post building, the Parker land swap and the $24-million sale of the Winnipeg Square — as well as the proposed sale of surface-parking lot Parcel Four in 2012 and the Canad Inns Stadium site sale, which both took place in 2012.

The auditors concluded land valuations for the parkade and Parcel Four were kept from city council, the Parker land swap was a "rush job," a car-wash expropriation was unnecessary and the city failed to obtain an independent appraisal of the Canada Post building or consider other places to create a new police headquarters.

Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz said while he has not read the document in detail, he accepts many of its recommendations, but has problems with the methodology.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ghoris wrote:
I suspect that much of JWL's support is squishy-soft and much of it was an 'anti-Katz' rather than 'pro-JWL' vote. I suspect that now there is no danger of Katz being re-elected, some anti-Katz voters might be more willing to give some of the other candidates a look. I will be curious to see how things shake out in the first post-Katz poll.

First off, there were polls taken both with Katz on and off the ballot, and Judy came far ahead in every single one.

My sense is that it's the same core group of "we-love-Judy-isn't-she-great" people who came out for her the last time. I don't imagine that she has that much to lose among this crowd, but I've repeated my fear that they think Judy can slide in on her name recognition and popularity without doing much work.

Man, I wish Orlikow hadn't backed out!

Why? To split the left-leaning vote and loose a good councillor?

Because he knows the issues from being at the council table and he has a solid voting record, and comparing the 2 candidates, I think he's more qualified to be mayor than Judy. While I respect the work that Judy has done and I undersand why she has a popular following, she has spent much of her political life in a bubble, by that I mean it's really not that hard to get elected when you're the NDP MP in a safe North-End Winnipeg seat. The last campaign did not demonstrate an awareness of how to connect with people outside and bring them on board. By contrast, Orlikow was elected in a swing ward with very strong right-wing areas within. He held off a far-right challenger last time, so that shows me that he knows how to reach beyond himself to bring people in and he knows how to fight and fight back. I supported (and volunteered) for her in 2010, but I'm still waiting to see how things shake out (particularly on the rapid transit file) before I decide for sure who I'll support this time.

Aristotleded24

If her [url=http://www.judyformayor.ca/]website[/url] is any indication, then she still has a long way to go before her presentation is at the level it needs to be. There's a bit about Judy, but nothing about issues, except for a few press releases you need to dig through. Contrast that with [url=http://www.oliviachow.ca/]Olivia Chow's[/url] webpage in Toronto. On the "Issues" tab, go to transit. Olivia clearly shows what the current administration is doing wrong on this file and has a fact-based response for how she will do better. Which approach do you think is going to win over more voters?

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ghoris wrote:
I suspect that much of JWL's support is squishy-soft and much of it was an 'anti-Katz' rather than 'pro-JWL' vote. I suspect that now there is no danger of Katz being re-elected, some anti-Katz voters might be more willing to give some of the other candidates a look. I will be curious to see how things shake out in the first post-Katz poll.

First off, there were polls taken both with Katz on and off the ballot, and Judy came far ahead in every single one.

My sense is that it's the same core group of "we-love-Judy-isn't-she-great" people who came out for her the last time. I don't imagine that she has that much to lose among this crowd, but I've repeated my fear that they think Judy can slide in on her name recognition and popularity without doing much work.

Man, I wish Orlikow hadn't backed out!

Why? To split the left-leaning vote and loose a good councillor?

Because he knows the issues from being at the council table and he has a solid voting record, and comparing the 2 candidates, I think he's more qualified to be mayor than Judy. While I respect the work that Judy has done and I undersand why she has a popular following, she has spent much of her political life in a bubble, by that I mean it's really not that hard to get elected when you're the NDP MP in a safe North-End Winnipeg seat. The last campaign did not demonstrate an awareness of how to connect with people outside and bring them on board. By contrast, Orlikow was elected in a swing ward with very strong right-wing areas within. He held off a far-right challenger last time, so that shows me that he knows how to reach beyond himself to bring people in and he knows how to fight and fight back. I supported (and volunteered) for her in 2010, but I'm still waiting to see how things shake out (particularly on the rapid transit file) before I decide for sure who I'll support this time.

Good points. I can see how Orlinkow may be preferable to Wasylycia-Leis, but your explaination does not solve the problem of vote-splitting on the left.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
I can see how Orlinkow may be preferable to Wasylycia-Leis, but your explaination does not solve the problem of vote-splitting on the left.

At the moment at least, there is an even bigger vote split on the right, and there was a poll taken that factored in Orlikow and still had Wasylycia-Leis winning by a huge margin.

genstrike

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I'm quite surprised that the labour council didn't also endorse Harvey Smith and John Orlikow. Smith hasn't commited to running again so we don't know,

According to the City of Winnipeg website, three candidates have registered for the race for Daniel Mac, all of whom are veterans of the 2010 race:

Harvey Smith - the (progressive) incumbent

Keith Bellamy - the candidate who was endorsed by the NDP and by labour council last time

Cindy Gilroy - who was involved in setting the Winnipeg Citizens Coalition (remember them?) and was one of its first co-chairs

 

Aristotleded24

genstrike wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

I'm quite surprised that the labour council didn't also endorse Harvey Smith and John Orlikow. Smith hasn't commited to running again so we don't know,

According to the City of Winnipeg website, three candidates have registered for the race for Daniel Mac, all of whom are veterans of the 2010 race:

Harvey Smith - the (progressive) incumbent

Keith Bellamy - the candidate who was endorsed by the NDP and by labour council last time

Cindy Gilroy - who was involved in setting the Winnipeg Citizens Coalition (remember them?) and was one of its first co-chairs

And I heard rumours that Marianne Cerilli was interested in that council seat.

Thanks for the udpate, genstrike.

Stockholm

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

She has spent much of her political life in a bubble, by that I mean it's really not that hard to get elected when you're the NDP MP in a safe North-End Winnipeg seat. 

I think you're being a bit unfair to Judy WL here. She has not always had it so easy. She is from Kitchener, ON originally and her ran and lost numerous times in the 1970s in Ontario. She also ran federally in 1993 and lost and then finally took her Winnipeg North seat away from the Liberals in 1997. In 2004 redistribution put her in the same seat as Liberal cabinet Minister Rey Paghtakhan and she had to fight like a dog to beat him. 

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

She has spent much of her political life in a bubble, by that I mean it's really not that hard to get elected when you're the NDP MP in a safe North-End Winnipeg seat.

I think you're being a bit unfair to Judy WL here. She has not always had it so easy. She is from Kitchener, ON originally and her ran and lost numerous times in the 1970s in Ontario. She also ran federally in 1993 and lost and then finally took her Winnipeg North seat away from the Liberals in 1997. In 2004 redistribution put her in the same seat as Liberal cabinet Minister Rey Paghtakhan and she had to fight like a dog to beat him.

You're talking about special cases. 1997 was a dead cat bounce for the NDP, and with the NDP's strong roots in that part of Winnipeg, almost anybody running under the NDP banner could have won that seat. In 2004 she was the incumbent MP, again very popular. She may have lost in the 1970s as you said, but in her most recent successes in politics she was very popular, and that is part of what carried her to the margins of victory she had.

Don't get me wrong, she has a great record of public service, but she has a long way to go before she can convince the swing voters to go for her, and living in Winnipeg, and witnessing the disaster that was the 2010 election, I'm not sure she is up to that particular task.

[url=http://metronews.ca/voices/urban-compass-winnipeg/1095171/winnipeg-mayor... columnist Colin Fast agrees:[/url]

Quote:
The trail of damning audits continues to grow, and citizens are actually paying attention! So it would seem like an ideal time to talk about big ideas and real changes, instead of just focusing on retweets.

Politicians like U.S. President Barack Obama or Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi are celebrated for their use of social media, but their elections were won on ideas, not “likes.”

Prior to launching his campaign, Obama wrote an entire book that outlined his positions on the important issues of the day.

Nenshi and his wonder twin in Alberta politics, Mayor Don Iveson of Edmonton, talked about the concept of “politics in full sentences.”

PrairieDemocrat15

As an Edmontonian, I can say Iveson is no progressive and certainly did not talk about "ideas" his election campaign. As a councillor sold Epcor's (municipal water and electricity utility) generation arm in a closed-door council "shareholders" meeting. He supports the Edmonton LRT P3 and sits on a "social impact bond" corporation's advisory board. He is also fully on side with developers. He gets lumped in with Nenshi becuase they are both young.

Nenshi, on the other hand, has some progressive credentials. He has publicly opposed Ottawa's forcing of P3 on cities and has fought developers in the most recent election with his plan to fight sprawl with a levy on new subdivisions. He is still a Liberal, though. I'm sure Judy would make a better mayor than him.

Judy should campaign on bringing at least some municipal garbage and recycling collection back in-house, given the tremendously poor service Emterra has provided. That would be a vote-winning and a "big idea" in my mind. Her plan for an "Accountability Winnipeg" office seems great and should also qualify as a "big idea."

PrairieDemocrat15

Stockholm wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

She has spent much of her political life in a bubble, by that I mean it's really not that hard to get elected when you're the NDP MP in a safe North-End Winnipeg seat. 

I think you're being a bit unfair to Judy WL here. She has not always had it so easy. She is from Kitchener, ON originally and her ran and lost numerous times in the 1970s in Ontario. She also ran federally in 1993 and lost and then finally took her Winnipeg North seat away from the Liberals in 1997. In 2004 redistribution put her in the same seat as Liberal cabinet Minister Rey Paghtakhan and she had to fight like a dog to beat him. 

The inital quote about Judy was not mine. Somehow my username got attached to it.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

So thus far, the elected representatives of the current administration who are standing down include:

  • Sam Katz
  • Dan Vandal
  • Scott Fielding
  • Justin Swandel

The easiest of these for the left to take in the 2014 election is St. Boniface. The Mayor's chair is now open. What about St. Norbert and St. James? Louise May ran a strong campaign against Swandel in 2010, but without her, will anyone else have a chance? What about St. James? This is Jae Eadie's old seat, and he only lost when Fielding took him down, and this seat stayed right-wing even through the Glen Murray Years. Elmwood is also low-hanging fruit, and the left should put in a strong effort in Point Douglas for sure.

So to recap: The seats currently held by the left include:

  • St. Vital (Mayes)
  • River Heights-East Fort Gary (Orlikow)
  • Daniel Macintyre (Smith)
  • Fort Rouge-Fort Gary (Gerbasi)
  • Mynarski (Eadie)

And the spots they could pick up include:

  • Mayor
  • St Boniface
  • Elmwood

That gives them just enough to control council, now add in:

  • St. Norbert
  • St. James
  • Old Kildonan
  • Transcona

So of 16 seats, that gives the left a range of seats between 5 (assuming Orlikow is re-elected) and 12.

Any thoughts?

Matt Allard, Vandal's former assistant, seems set to win St. B. He has over 1,000 followers on Twitter and has one of the more active council campaigns. He was endorsed by the Labour Council. Was Vandal endorsed by the WLC in 2010. His shift to the right after being placed on the EPC has been noted. Although he was associated with the provinical NDP, his shift to the Liberals for the federal election is not suprising and somewhat understandable given the NDP is weak in St. B federally.

Sachit Mehra, running in St. Norbert, was also endorsed by the Council. I've no idea what his partisan affliations are, but a centrist/leftist winning in one of the most conservative parts of Winnipeg is a bonus. He should have a good chance in a straight up 1 v 1 race.

School boad chair and New Democrat Suzanne Hrynyk (endorsed by WLC) is confirmed for Old Kildonan. Sharma is expected to run but has not filed yet. One Donovan Martin is confirmed to run in OK. He has a snazzy website: http://www.donovanmartin.ca/

Stefan Jonasson was endored by the WLC and has filed papers to run in the already crowed field for St. James Brooklands. There are three other candidates officially running there including School Board Trustee Bryan Metcalfe. Jonsasson has a modest folling on Twitter. Refreshingly, he openly describes himself as a "social democrat." St. James is somewhat supportive of the NDP. It currently has a New Democrat MLA and, as has been noted, was represented by the left-leaning councillor before Feilding took over.

Raymond Ulsay was endorsed by the WLC for Transcona, but doesn't stand much of a chance if Wyatt runs again.

Evan Comstock is running against Broway in North Kildonan with the WLC's endorsment.

Anyone have news on Jason Schreyer in Elmwood-East Kildonan? He was endorsed by the WLC but has yet to file papers with the City Clerk. Surely, that ward must be one of the easier pick-ups given Steen's numerous legal troubles.

Any ideas as to why no left-leaning candidates are running in Point Douglas? This is one of the poorest parts of the city. The minority of people who do vote generally support the NDP, but no one on the left seems to want to challenge the incumbent.

Anyone else think Cindy Gilroy could seek up the middle in Daniel McIntyre? She almost did last time on account of the left-wing vote beig split between Smith and Bellamy. All three are running again, Bellamy with the WLC endorsment. In 2010 one Lito Taruc (now president of the Philippine-Canadian Centre of Manitoba) got 15% of the vote and so far he has not registered, so that considerable percentage may be up for grabs and could decide the race.

http://winnipeg.ca/clerks/election/election2014/InformationAboutCandidat...

genstrike

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Anyone else think Cindy Gilroy could seek up the middle in Daniel McIntyre? She almost did last time on account of the left-wing vote beig split between Smith and Bellamy. All three are running again, Bellamy with the WLC endorsment. In 2010 one Lito Taruc (now president of the Philippine-Canadian Centre of Manitoba) got 15% of the vote and so far he has not registered, so that considerable percentage may be up for grabs and could decide the race.

http://winnipeg.ca/clerks/election/election2014/InformationAboutCandidat...

It seems to me that all three candidates in Daniel McIntyre have some progressive* credentials.

Harvey Smith has been one of the few progressive voices on council.  Keith Bellamy has the endorsement of the Winnipeg Labour Council.  Cindy Gilroy was a co-chair of the Winnipeg Citizens Coalition.

I'd wager that all three of them probably picked up a portion of the left wing vote in 2010 - if I recall correctly, Taruc was the only candidate representing the right side of the political spectrum.

I'm not saying I would necessarily vote for Cindy Gilroy over Harvey Smith and Keith Bellamy, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if she were elected, and she'd probably be a more progressive voice on council than most of our city councillors.  It's not like she's the Scott Fielding of Daniel Mac.

In this race, there's no real risk of splitting the vote so much that some right-wing barbarians at the gates get in.  First, none have registered, and second, if it didn't happen last time with three NDP members and the co-chair of the WCC on the ballot, it never will.

*I'm using "progressive" in a broad sense here -- putting aside for a moment the fact that I really question the progressive credentials of the Manitoba NDP.  And also, I'm not using NDP membership or WLC endorsement as the sole measure of whether someone is progressive, or whether a candidacy is worthy of support.

genstrike

Further to my point, the wikipedia entry on the Winnipeg Citizens Coalition, clearly written by a bitter NDP partisan, blames Cindy Gilroy for splitting the progressive vote and letting Smith in!

It just seems absurd to me to talk about vote splits when there are no right-wing candidates on the ballot or even in contention.  You have three progressive candidates, and each one of them is going to have to earn every vote.  None of them can take any supporters for granted, and none of them can blame each other for taking away votes that rightfully belong to another.

If there is a danger of "vote splitting" in Daniel Mac, I honestly can't figure out of the three candidates who is splitting whose vote and letting who in.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
As an Edmontonian, I can say Iveson is no progressive and certainly did not talk about "ideas" his election campaign. As a councillor sold Epcor's (municipal water and electricity utility) generation arm in a closed-door council "shareholders" meeting. He supports the Edmonton LRT P3 and sits on a "social impact bond" corporation's advisory board. He is also fully on side with developers. He gets lumped in with Nenshi becuase they are both young.

Nenshi, on the other hand, has some progressive credentials. He has publicly opposed Ottawa's forcing of P3 on cities and has fought developers in the most recent election with his plan to fight sprawl with a levy on new subdivisions. He is still a Liberal, though. I'm sure Judy would make a better mayor than him.

You're missing the point. For the most part, the babble community and the left are already sold on Judy and they do not need any convincing. It's the swing voters and the unengaged voters who will make or break this campaign, and whatever her objective qualifications to be Mayor, she was totally ineffective in reaching this group in 2010, unlike Nenshi and Iveson who were able to win people over. Unfortunately, there are signs of complacency setting in for her 2014 campaign, and complacency is never a good thing.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/how-the-seven-mayoral-candidates-... me up when we have a civic election:[/url]

Quote:
Despite repeated pledges that the wide-open 2014 mayoral race would feature more substance and less timidity than previous contests, what Winnipeg has witnessed so far has been a disappointing snooze. The policy pledges are arriving at an average rate of one per month, per candidate. Actual issues have been sidelined in favour of appearances at festivals. The candidates seem to be holding their fire until September -- even though most promised precisely not to do that when this lame excuse of a race began in earnest almost three months ago.

Ugh, has anyone gone to the candidate's web sites to find out about the issues? Not much there. And I also e-mailed each candidate asking for his or her position on the rapid transit question. As of now, only Michael Vogiatzakis responded, indicating that he will scrap the current alignment.

I also have to say that Judy's campaign is a disappointment thus far. She's been all over the place sure, but what does she stand for? She's had press coverage since she announced the second time, but what was she doing for the past 4 years? What will she do differently? Is she counting on name recognition and her connections to the (currently unpopular) NDP machinery to win? Election victories need to be earned. I worked very hard for her in 2010, but this time I'm not sure who I will support.

Aristotleded24

What I'd be interested to see is the polling breakdowns comparing how people voted in 2010 to how they intend to vote this time. I think it's reasonable to expect that those who backed Katz are now split between Steeves, Bowman, and Havixbeck, and Judy has retained a great deal of her vote. What about the other candidates? Are they taking from the left, or the right, or just voters who are fed up with the whole thing? What are the breakdowns of people who planned to vote last time versus how they plan to vote this time? Judy is currently leading, are there any indications as to how firm this vote is?

By the way, if you want a reason why people are tuning out the election process? Consider this: last week I sent all 7 candidates an e-mail asking for a position on the routing of the rapid transit corridor. The number of responses I have had to date? 2. Would this level of non-response be acceptable in any other workplace?

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGHXJZ_AkZc

 

Dr. Robert-Falcon Ouelette seems to be running an "outsider" campaign while having technocratic and post-ideological themes. Some red Liberals, like (I guess ex-Lib) Bob Axeworthy, are supporting him.

Aristotleded24

Can anybody speak to what's happening in Jenny Gerbasi's ward? She could be considered the "leader of the Opposition" in terms of Sam Katz, but I believe she made a serious error in backing the rapid transit detour through the Parker lands, and I think this move could very well alienate some of her ward residents. Shane Nestruck is running to challenge her again, and one of his points is he wants to see rapid transit closer to Pembina Highway. Do you think Nestruck will gain traction on this (or any other) issue, or will his brash style continue to hold him back?

PrairieDemocrat15

Left-leaning public policy expert and long-time critic of City Council David Sanders to enter mayoral race: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/council-gadfly-sanders-in-race-27...

What does this mean for centre-left standard-bearer Judy Wasylycia-Leis? Will Sanders draw support away from her and split the left-of-centre vote? Or are Wasylycia-Leis' supporters too committed to be swayed? Will New Democrats and left Liberals stay with Judy given she is the most prominent non-Conservative in the race.

Perhaps Sanders is more of a threat to Brian Bowman and Paula Havixbeck, who have been trying to craft centrist messages to distingush themselves from hard-right former councillor Gord Steves. Maybe Sanders will draw these voters who are not ideologically conservative, but will not vote for Wasylycia-Leis because of her connections to the New Democratic Party and organized labour.

Its also possible Sanders will end up being a "fringe" candidate like Robert-Falcon Ouellette. Although Sanders is clearly informed and intelligent, he does not have any political experience nor, it seems, much support from business or labour. I cannot understand why people like Sanders and Ouellette don't run for Council first!

 

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
Its also possible Sanders will end up being a "fringe" candidate like Robert-Falcon Ouellette. Although Sanders is clearly informed and intelligent, he does not have any political experience nor, it seems, much support from business or labour. I cannot understand why people like Sanders and Ouellette don't run for Council first!

There is an attitude promoted by the media that anybody without a background in elected politics is "fringe" and "inexperienced," unless this person has a background either as a lawyer or businessman. I am sick of this attitude. Brian Bowman also has no experience in elected office, and yet he is considered one of the main contenders for the top spot. Why is that? His "inexperience" is identical to Sanders and Falcon-Ouelette. Could it be this idea that commerce or law backgrounds are superior to others? Remember that the current mayor also had no experience in elected office beforehand, he didn't even put forth a strong platform, and yet he won on the back of his business experience with the Winnipeg Goldeyes. Look how that turned out.

Sometimes a fresh perspective from outside is needed to shake things up. Look 2 hours down the road at the election of Shari Decter-Hirst in Brandon as an example.

genstrike

It's hard to figure out how much Sanders' campaign will resonate.

Entering this late means that he's coming in when a lot of people, particularly the big movers and shakers, have already made up their minds.  Plus, the NDP/labour machine is already solidly behind Judy as the anointed center-left candidate.  And as an outsider, it's going to be hard for him to run a solid campaign -- Bowman already has a big, nice-looking office that I drive by every day on my way to and from work, and Sanders probably isn't going to be able to compete on that front.

On the other hand, I think people in Winnipeg have a bit of a soft spot for outsiders and little guys like Sanders.  That said, that doesn't always translate to votes; Nick Ternette was pretty well respected, though he never got more than a handful of votes when he ran for mayor.

But then again, it's possible that he might hit the right note and have his campaign take off.  Stranger things have happened.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24,  I just wanted to point out I put "fringe" in quotations for a reason. There is no doubt in my mind a former deputy minister like Sanders is more than capable of being mayor. Frankly, he has more experience in governance than any of the other candidates. As public administration student myself, I wish more expereinced public servants got involved in political office. Certainly, if people like Sanders were in charge we wouldn't have developers like Phil Shegal as city manager! 

However, administrative experience, policy expertise, and bureaucratic competence do not a good campaigner make. A strong campaign team and enthusiastic supporters and volunteers are needed to get a candidate into office. Outside of political parties, it's difficult access these human resources without support for business or labour. Bowman is the business candidate and that's why he is considered "mainstream" while Sanders is not, even though Sanders is more qualified to run the city. 

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/rcmp-to-investigate-city-deals-27... on the Mounties:[/url]

Quote:
Greg Graceffo, the province's assistant deputy minister of justice, said Friday the department has forwarded the city's audits on real estate deals and the new police headquarters to the RCMP, as well as adding the fire-hall audit and related materials.

"The RCMP will conduct a review and we will deal with what emerges when the RCMP have concluded," Graceffo said on Friday.

"I'm not going to speak as to how the RCMP are going to conduct their investigation or what conclusions they might reach. The RCMP, I think, will conduct a review to determine if there's a need to go further," he said.

Graceffo would not say what additional related materials were sent over to the RCMP.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture
Aristotleded24

That poll shows no such thing. It shows that nearly 40% of voters are undecided, and that is nearly double the support that Judy has. That's more than enough of a potential swing to send someone else to the mayor's chair.

The media is clearly trying to stampede voters into a Judy/Bowman/Steeves competition, thus the misleading headline on that article. A better headline would have been, "Winnipeggers unsure who to support," or something that conveyed that message.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

That poll shows no such thing.

Uh, yes it does. Judy is ahead of all other options right now, so she is by definition the front-runner. That doesn't mean it's logically or arithmetically impossible for someone to overtake her, but it does mean she leads the pack at the moment.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
It shows that nearly 40% of voters are undecided, and that is nearly double the support that Judy has. That's more than enough of a potential swing to send someone else to the mayor's chair.

Arithmetically, yes it's possible that someone - let's say Sanders - could get all the undecided voters or some of Judy's voters and end up the winner. Given name recognition and the general state of the race (with Judy maintaining a lead over all other ballot options over the course of polling) I wouldn't bet on it, though.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
The media is clearly trying to stampede voters into a Judy/Bowman/Steeves competition, thus the misleading headline on that article. A better headline would have been, "Winnipeggers unsure who to support," or something that conveyed that message.

Voters are still up for grabs and Steeves or Bowman dropping out would shake up the race, but (admittedly due in part to media reporting) Winnipeg 2014 has likely polarized into a three person race. Perhaps RFO can overtake Bowman, but I wouldn't bet on him winning. Sanders, due to organizational aloofness, will likely remain in the single digits.

jas

Does Judy have a platform yet?

PrairieDemocrat15

jas wrote:

Does Judy have a platform yet?

Yes. Her flagship policy is not being Gord Steeves.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Perspective of centre-right blogger Derick.

 

Who should be happy?

Judy, obviously. She has a healthy lead and a strong base of support. 71% of provincial NDP voters are behind her to one degree or another. Her results are not going to drop by very much, but on the other hand, nor are they going to rise very much. She will probably maintain most of this support if she can avoid major blunders.

PrairieDemocrat15

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Wyatt-to-seek-federal-Liberal-nom...

Okay, so Russ Wyatt announces a couple weeks ago he is being courted to run for the Liberals in E-T in 2015 and thus does not put his name in for re-election. More recently, he declared he will be on the ballot in Transcona. Today, four days before the nomination deadline and with only one other candiate registered, Wyatt pulls out of the race decaring he will seek the Liberal nomination.

And people call Judy W-L a political opportunist!

I'm sure Wyatt will win the nomination, Trudeau has already intervened in nominations when necessary. I'm also sure he will imrove the Liberals' results in Elmwood-Transcona givent that the Grits basically have nowhere to go but up in that riding. This Liberal resurgence and strong numbers in Manitoba, combined with Wyatt's strong name recognition will most likely bring their numbers up from the paltry 5.0% of the vote they got in 2011.

The question is: where will these votes come from. New Democrat and Liberal voters generally have the other party as their second choice; however, recent election results suggest Liberal declines in the West mostly benefit the Conservatives. Wyatt has a history with the NDP, being nominated municipally by the party and also running the leadership campaign of the Manitoba NDP's most left-wing cabinet minister. He has opposed Katz on several issues, but was still one of the leading right-wingers on Council.

What is certain is Ray Ulasy is one of the happiest men in Winnipeg right now (he, an unknow labour-endorsed non-incumbet may win by acclamation) and Lawrence Toet and Daniel Blaikie are two of the most worried.

Wyatt endorsed the NDP's Jim Malloway for E-T in 2008, the Cons' awrence Toet in 2011, and will endorse himself as the Grit candidate (the only major party he hasen't been associated with, until now)!

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

What do people make of Taz Stuart (former City entomologist) running against John Orlikow in River Heights-Fort Garry?

PrairieDemocrat15

laine lowe wrote:

What do people make of Taz Stuart (former City entomologist) running against John Orlikow in River Heights-Fort Garry?

I heard from a colleague (who has a friend in the City's Insect Control Branch) that the reason he left city hall was because he punched one of his subordinates. Apparently he was very hard to work for and quite the hot head. This is "friend of a friend of mine" info, but I have no reason to think it is false.

Aristotleded24

laine lowe wrote:
What do people make of Taz Stuart (former City entomologist) running against John Orlikow in River Heights-Fort Garry?

This is my ward, and I really don't know what to make of it at the moment. I'm not sure why he's running in this area of all places, nor am I sure of his political leanings. What really surprised me is that this ward has always had a hard-right candidate running (Garth Steek and Brenda Leipsic are but 2 examples who represented the ward previously) and that they hadn't lined up a candiate yet. Maybe this says something about Sturart's political leanings that we don't know?

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
laine lowe wrote:

What do people make of Taz Stuart (former City entomologist) running against John Orlikow in River Heights-Fort Garry?

I heard from a colleague (who has a friend in the City's Insect Control Branch) that the reason he left city hall was because he punched one of his subordinates. Apparently he was very hard to work for and quite the hot head. This is "friend of a friend of mine" info, but I have no reason to think it is false.

Surely if there was any truth to this the police would have been involved and pressed charges? You're basically alleging that he did something criminal, in which case there should be a clear public record to which you can point, not the rumour mill.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
laine lowe wrote:

What do people make of Taz Stuart (former City entomologist) running against John Orlikow in River Heights-Fort Garry?

I heard from a colleague (who has a friend in the City's Insect Control Branch) that the reason he left city hall was because he punched one of his subordinates. Apparently he was very hard to work for and quite the hot head. This is "friend of a friend of mine" info, but I have no reason to think it is false.

Surely if there was any truth to this the police would have been involved and pressed charges? You're basically alleging that he did something criminal, in which case there should be a clear public record to which you can point, not the rumour mill.

There is a mystery surrounding his departure from City Hall. I hear from insiders that he created a toxic work environment and there was a physical altercation between him and someone in his office. Is it not possible all parties decided it was best he quietly leave? Do you think every little scuffle gets reported to the police? I made it clear I did not independantly verify the veracity of this info, so I understand if you don't believe it.

PrairieDemocrat15

JWL @ Winnipeg mayoral canadiates food policy debate: "The rich get organics, the poor get diabetes."

So true.

Aristotleded24

Are the special interest groups and media establishment going to give us a fair chance to decide who to vote for? It's kind of hard for us to do that when these groups arbitrarily exclude certain candidates from these debates.

SpectateSwamp SpectateSwamp's picture

Are any of the candidates for transparency? If not toss them out.

PrairieDemocrat15

Its nice that there are so many mayoraly debates, certainy better than at the federal and provinical level where the standard is one or two. However, I agree with A24 that it would be nice to have an open-ended debate not sponsored by an intrest group. I mean, yeasterday the candiates (minus Steeves) spent over an hour talking about food policy. Now, these are important issues, but they are not what the candiates are focusing on during the campaign and are so far down on their list of priorities, whoever wins will probably not do anything they talked about during the debate.

Also, the downtwon BI should be ashamed for giving the other candiates the runaround.

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

The Winnipeg Metro is having an "election fest" meet the candidates thing tonight.

https://twitter.com/RBCConvCtreWpg/status/514070225185030145

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/mayor/Sanders... gets interesting[/url]

Quote:
Sanders also said he would avoid vacancy management or blanket budget-reduction targets, measures he criticized as hobbling city departments indiscriminately.

...

Sanders also said he would not support contracting the provision of any other city services without a financial ‎rationale.

He described himself as the most union-friendly candidate, opining former NDP MP and MLA Judy Wasylycia-Leis ‎ does not deserve that label.

NorthReport

Judy W-L leaving pack behind

Lead increases; Bowman surges

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/mayor/Judy-W-...

genstrike

NorthReport wrote:

Judy W-L leaving pack behind

Lead increases; Bowman surges

 

It's a funny headline - "leaving pack behind" when she's been at the same level of support for the past year or so, and her campaign plan has consistently been to keep her 41% and hope her opposition doesn't coalesce into one candidate.

Aristotleded24

genstrike wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Judy W-L leaving pack behind

Lead increases; Bowman surges

It's a funny headline - "leaving pack behind" when she's been at the same level of support for the past year or so, and her campaign plan has consistently been to keep her 41% and hope her opposition doesn't coalesce into one candidate.

Absolutely. The most likely scenario I see is Judy wins this election and the right-wing gets its act together in time for 2018 and then defeats her. She's very good at winning a safe NDP seat in the North End where all she has to do is show up, but I'm not convinced that her ability to face a hostile crowd and answer tough questions has improved that much from 2010.

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