2014 Winnipeg municipal elections

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PrairieDemocrat15

The Analyst wrote:

The Winnipeg Metro is having an "election fest" meet the candidates thing tonight.

https://twitter.com/RBCConvCtreWpg/status/514070225185030145

I wanted to go to that, but had class.

Aristotleded24

Aristotleded24 wrote:
laine lowe wrote:
What do people make of Taz Stuart (former City entomologist) running against John Orlikow in River Heights-Fort Garry?

This is my ward, and I really don't know what to make of it at the moment. I'm not sure why he's running in this area of all places, nor am I sure of his political leanings. What really surprised me is that this ward has always had a hard-right candidate running (Garth Steek and Brenda Leipsic are but 2 examples who represented the ward previously) and that they hadn't lined up a candiate yet. Maybe this says something about Sturart's political leanings that we don't know?

I did a partial poll drop this weekend. While I saw a few signs for Stuart on my route, overall the signage in the ward seems to favour Orlikow by a wide margin.

Stockholm

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Absolutely. The most likely scenario I see is Judy wins this election and the right-wing gets its act together in time for 2018 and then defeats her. She's very good at winning a safe NDP seat in the North End where all she has to do is show up, but I'm not convinced that her ability to face a hostile crowd and answer tough questions has improved that much from 2010.

meh...Judy W-L will likely be a competent, very moderately centre-left mayor and unless she gets involved in some major scandal - its hard to see how anyone would be able to beat her as an incumbent in 2018. Has an incumbent mayor EVER been defeated in Winnipeg or have all changes been from retirement or death?

Aristotleded24

We live in hope, Stockholm. Still, look at her polling numbers. They show her at bascially the same level she had in 2010, the main difference being that in 2010 the anti-Judy vote coalesced in Sam Katz, while this time around it is all over the map, and those numbers would also show that she hasn't won over anyone in the middle. And for the amount of time that she's been back, some of her policy commitments have been sparse on specifics, for example what percentage of a housing development must be allotted to affordable housing. People are also criticizing the NDP for trying to "take over" city hall, especially at a time when the provincial party is so unpopular. The other problem is that after 4 years, she will have a record, and will have undoubtedly made certain decisions that alienate people, and she still has the fundamental weakness of relying on her popularity and being unable to face a hostile crowd. She may grow into the role, but believe me that there will be a campaign to unseat her come the 23rd.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded, I don't think Judy's election is a sure thing, and I have a feeling the final vote will be closer than polls and pundits suggest. I agree with most what you said in your last post, except your concern about her polling numbers. Considering that all the candidates and much of the media have been very hard on her these last few months, the fact that her polling numbers have not suffered is quite remarkable. Also, I don't think its fair to expect her to incease or even maintain what she got in 2010 considering there are many more candiates in this race. Bowman has been running a somewhat progressive and very urbanist campaign that seems to be targeting some of Judy's supporters. She also faces competition on the left from Ouellette and Sanders. All of this considered, 41% of decided voters (with the number of undecideds decreasing) is pretty good at this stage.

Stockholm

Aristotleded24 wrote:

People are also criticizing the NDP for trying to "take over" city hall, especially at a time when the provincial party is so unpopular. The other problem is that after 4 years, she will have a record, and will have undoubtedly made certain decisions that alienate people, and she still has the fundamental weakness of relying on her popularity and being unable to face a hostile crowd. She may grow into the role, but believe me that there will be a campaign to unseat her come the 23rd.

Another thing to consider is that if the NDP loses power provincially next year it means that Judy W-L would run for re-election in 2018 as the champion for Winnipeg against a rightwing Conservative provincial government that is likely to pursue a very anti-urban agenda.

PS: Has an incumbent mayor running for re-election in Winnipeg EVER been defeated? 

Aristotleded24

PD15, I have seen a couple of web polls where Brian Bowman came out on top, but I still think Judy will win. She has a solid core behind her, the same people who were behind her in 2010 despite the weaknesses of the campaign, and people who overlooked her weaknesses in 2010 are quite likely to overlook them this time around. I don't see that Sanders and Ouelette are as much of a challenge for Judy as you would claim, unfortunately. The reason she stands to win has less to do with improvement on her side and the fact that her opponents are divided. Bowman has taken some bold stands, and should Judy win, I think she would be wise to take on such Bowman pledges as his plan to fight homelessness, open Portage and Main, and his timeline for expansion of rapid transit to all corners of Winnipeg (with the leg to the U of M going by the rail lines, of course).

Stockholm, as for an incumbent mayor of Winnipeg losing re-election, I think the last time that happened was in the 1950s, but that's mainly because Susan Thompson and Sam Katz could read the public mood and avoided the inevitable judgement the voters were about to dish out.

Stockholm

Katz was reelected against all odds last time when he was already unpopular and running for a third term...in general in Canadian politics it is almost unheard for incumbents mayors to lose in major cities - especially in their first re-election campaign - barring a total implosion on a scale of Larry O'Brian in Ottawa...

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
Katz was reelected against all odds last time when he was already unpopular and running for a third term

That's true, there was a sense here that Katz could lose. One of the reasons he didn't is because there were several weaknesses with Judy's campaign, and we discussed those at the time on babble. A key reason she's likely to win this go around is that Katz' coalition has fractured severely, and it was showing signs of fracture well before Katz backed out, with 3 right-wing councillors (Steeves, Fielding, Havixbeck) expressing interest.

Believe anyone who lives in Winnipeg that Katz appears to display narcissistic tendancies, and that he would have run again in a heartbeat if he thought he would have won.

Stockholm wrote:
in general in Canadian politics it is almost unheard for incumbents mayors to lose in major cities - especially in their first re-election campaign

1989: Ken Burgess, Brandon, Manitoba

2000: Doug Archer, Regina Saskatchewan

2000: Henry Dayday, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

2003: Jim Maddin, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

2006: Larry Di Ianni, Hamilton, Ontario

2006: David Courtemanche, Sudbury, Ontario

2006: Kate Quarrie, Guelph, Ontario

2006: Bob Chiarelli, Ottawa, Ontario

2006: Michael Di Biase, Vaughan, Ontario

2010: Dave Burgess, Brandon, Manitoba

2010: Anne Marie DeCicco-Best, London, Ontario

2010: Larry O'Brien, Ottawa Ontario

2010: Fred Eisenburger, Hamilton, Ontario

2010: John Rodriguez, Sudbury, Ontario

Sorry, what were you saying about how it's impossible to dislodge an incumbent mayor in Canada?

Stockholm

Most of those are small towns and small cities...its very rare for incumbents to lose in their first re-election campaign in major cities like Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg - barring being caught embezzling money if Judy W-L is elected mayor - she likely has the job for as long as she wants it...

btw: Aristotle why do you hate Judy W-L so much - you take every opportunity to attack and her and denigrate and belittle her. Now you are already trying to devalue her looming win by saying that its no real accomplishment since she will only win because her opposition is split (In my book when you get more votes than anyone else running - you did something right and you earned your win). And you seem to think its inevitable that she'll be a bad mayor and be defeated in 2018...what gives?

I've noticed that this is common among ideologues on the left (maybe the right too) - if someone progressive runs a campaign with a strategy that they disapprove of - they want that person  to lose - its like "unless Judy WL wins MY WAY, using MY strategy - she might as well lose - that way i get to say I TOLD YOU SO"

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
btw: Aristotle why do you hate Judy W-L so much - you take every opportunity to attack and her and denigrate and belittle her. Now you are already trying to devalue her looming win by saying that its no real accomplishment since she will only win because her opposition is split (In my book when you get more votes than anyone else running - you did something right and you earned your win). And you seem to think its inevitable that she'll be a bad mayor and be defeated in 2018...what gives?

There's a difference between "hating" Judy the person and having serious reservations about Judy's campaign or her candidacy. I may be the most vocal person on that point in this thread, but I'm far from the only one who has expressed reservations and concerns.

To answer your question, this reminds me of the 2006 mayoral election when the shoe was reversed and it was Katz in the lead with the left-wing opposition split. Did he earn that victory or did he just coast?

I supported her enthusiastically in 2010. Back then, there were signs of trouble, such as the fact that she had difficulties answering tough questions about her platform. But she was an MP coming home to run for Mayor. Federal and municipal issues are different, and as we've seen with Inky Mark, Joe Fontana, and Olivia Chow, it is very difficult to make that political transition on your first run. After being defeated, she said she would be back, but we heard very little from her until she ran again. She's had no shortage of time to learn the issues, and while she has come some distance in this time, I think she has a way to go, for example answering specific questions about her affordable housing plan. She is also surrounded by a very loyal crowd, and while she has earned that loyalty, there's almost a sense that you're not allowed to raise any questions or give constructive critcism, lest you be accused of "hating" her. You also have to understand that there are very powerful interests in Winnipeg who do not want a socialist mayor, and that's why Winnipeg has not elected one since the 1940s.

Make no mistake about it, should she win, I will most likely vote for her should she run again in 2018. Perhaps she will have a successful term. It's possible. I simply raised the possibility (not inevitability) that things might not go that way, and that it would be foolish to take anything for granted.

Stockholm

Aristotleded24 wrote:

 You also have to understand that there are very powerful interests in Winnipeg who do not want a socialist mayor, and that's why Winnipeg has not elected one since the 1940s.

And no one running for mayor is remotely "socialist" least of all Judy WL - I suspect she would be a centre left mayor very much a municipal version of Doer/Selinger...there are very powerful interests in manitoba who do not want a "socialist" (sic.) premier and they have been stuck with a supposedly socialist premier for 15 years now...largely because the city of Winnipeg has voted overwhelmingly NDP in 4 straight elections!

Aristotleded24
Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection2014/riverheights/... Heights ward experiences quieter election than elections past[/url]

Robo

Stockholm wrote:

Most of those are small towns and small cities...its very rare for incumbents to lose in their first re-election campaign in major cities ..

Nine of the fourteen examples listed above are in cities of 190,000 of more (Regina being at the low end, which is the 18th largest city in Canada).  They are not the size of Toronto, but neither are they "small cities" -- the significant majority of cities across Canada are far smaller than that.  No one gets elected Mayor of London, Hamilton, or Ottawa by knocking on every door and making a personal impact on every voter.  There are small towns with elections like that -- once you hit 10,000-15,000 voters, you have left the "personal touch: campaign threshhold behind.

Aristotleded24

Robo wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

Most of those are small towns and small cities...its very rare for incumbents to lose in their first re-election campaign in major cities ..

Nine of the fourteen examples listed above are in cities of 190,000 of more (Regina being at the low end, which is the 18th largest city in Canada).

Your overall point in response to Stockholm is correct, but I just need to nit-pick and single out Brandon as being the smallest of all those places!Smile

Aristotleded24

Anybody catch the debate? Any highlights? Lowlights? For those of us who missed, where can we see it again?

Robo

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Robo wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

Most of those are small towns and small cities...its very rare for incumbents to lose in their first re-election campaign in major cities ..

Nine of the fourteen examples listed above are in cities of 190,000 of more (Regina being at the low end, which is the 18th largest city in Canada).

Your overall point in response to Stockholm is correct, but I just need to nit-pick and single out Brandon as being the smallest of all those places!Smile

Regina is at the low end of the nine examples over 190,000.  Brandon is at the low end of all 14.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I don't think I'm registered for voting. I have received no information. Plus I have no idea when the advance polls close.

I guess I could call Jenny Gervasi's office/campaign for information.

Aristotleded24

laine lowe wrote:
I don't think I'm registered for voting. I have received no information. Plus I have no idea when the advance polls close.

I guess I could call Jenny Gervasi's office/campaign for information.

[url=http://winnipeg.ca/clerks/election/election2014/AreYouOnTheVotersList.st... this helps, laine[/url]

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Hull-endorses-Steen-in-Elmwood-Ea... councillor scores big endorsement:[/url]

Quote:
Some residents of Elmwood-East Kildonan reported receiving an automated voice message Tuesday night from Bobby Hull, the Golden Jet of the 1970s, recommending the re-election of Coun. Thomas Steen, who played his entire NHL career with the Jets in the '80s and '90s.

"Hey, I just got a call from Bobby Hull (or a robot with Hull's voice)," tweeted Probe Research pollster Curtis Brown on Tuesday. "He suggested I should vote for Thomas Steen."

Aristotleded24

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkZxs1j_K9w]Won't someone think of the children?[/url]

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKR0l7odlVI]A message to Sam from Winnipeggers[/url]

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
Browaty should be safe. He's just biding his time until Bonnie Mitchelson retires anyways.

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKR0l7odlVI]The time has come[/url]

Aristotleded24

[url=http://metronews.ca/voices/urban-compass-winnipeg/1175367/what-will-happ... directions to Winnipeg City Hall? Turn left ahead:[/url]

Quote:
Leading the insurgency is Judy Wasylycia-Leis, who polls predict will become the city’s first true left-wing mayor since John Queen left office in 1942.

...

Voters in Daniel McIntyre, Elmwood-East Kildonan, Fort Rouge – East Fort Garry, Mynarski, St. Boniface and St. Vital appear likely to elect NDP-friendly councillors.

In Old Kildonan, incumbent Devi Sharma is in a tough race against NDP school trustee Suzanne Hrynyk. And in St. Norbert, Sachit Mehra says he’s a Liberal, but he has support from NDP MLA Dave Gaudreau.

Point Douglas and River Heights-Fort Garry will probably be held by Liberal councillors, Mike Pagtakhan and John Orlikow, who tend to lean left.

Aristotleded24

So it's crystal ball time. I haven't been able to follow all the races and get a sense of what's going on, but here is what I will predict:

  • Mayor: Judy Wasylycia-Leis
  • St. Boniface: Matt Allard
  • Elmwood: Jason Schreyer
  • Daniel Macintyre: Havrey Smith
  • Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Jenny Gerbasi
  • River Heights-Fort Garry: John Orlikow
  • Mynarski: Ross Eadie
  • St. Vital: Brian Mayes
  • Point Douglas: Mike Pagtakhan
  • North Kildonan: Jeff Browaty
  • St. Charles: Grant Nordman
  • Charleswood-Tuxedo-Whyte Ridge: Luc Lewandoski

That list gives the left control of city council, without taking into account possible upsets in Transcona and Old Kildonan, and new faces in St. Norbert and St. James. I won't predict these seats because I have no information, but given this list, Judy is not going to have a hard time advancing her agenda at the council table at all.

By the way, the current Free Press web poll has Judy just winning at 30% of the vote. Not scientific, but considering the clear anti-Judy bias of those who comment on the Free Press, that she's winning is remarkable. It's consistent with the polls, which show that her support has held up for the most part. Which mayoral candidate gets my vote on Wednesday is still up for grabs.

PrairieDemocrat15

Based on the sign war Gillingham should clean up in St. James.

A poll will be out tomorrow. I hope Judy's support holds up. The media (Freep, SUN, CJOB) has been talking-up Bowman's supposed "monentum" for several days (the last poll had him down 1pp, I'm not sure how that is momentum). If the last poll gives him an decent uptick, watch the media start pumping his tires.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

By the way, the current Free Press web poll has Judy just winning at 30% of the vote. Not scientific, but considering the clear anti-Judy bias of those who comment on the Free Press, that she's winning is remarkable. It's consistent with the polls, which show that her support has held up for the most part. Which mayoral candidate gets my vote on Wednesday is still up for grabs.

Judy's now at 29% compared to 27% for Bowman. The last Free Press online poll had her around 40%, well ahead of Bowman. Also, my guess is less than 100 people comment on the Free Press site with regularity. The paper's online polls, however, get over 5,000 responses.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

By the way, the current Free Press web poll has Judy just winning at 30% of the vote. Not scientific, but considering the clear anti-Judy bias of those who comment on the Free Press, that she's winning is remarkable. It's consistent with the polls, which show that her support has held up for the most part. Which mayoral candidate gets my vote on Wednesday is still up for grabs.

Judy's now at 29% compared to 27% for Bowman. The last Free Press online poll had her around 40%, well ahead of Bowman.

I do remember seeing Bowman beat Judy in a couple of web polls, and she did have about 37% on the CBC post-debate web poll, but I don't ever remember seeing Judy get that high on a Free Press web poll. I do think, for whatever reason, that the sample size that votes in online web polls is not representative of the whole voting pool among the general public. Judy has also been winning the sign war from what I can see in south Winnipeg, and if she's winning there, she's got solid support throughout the city. Her base is also very loyal.

ghoris

Well this is interesting. 

Bowman, Judy W-L neck and neck, poll shows

And it's not an unscientific web poll either.

A new Insightrix telephone survey, commissioned by 680 CJOB and Global News, shows rookie politician Brian Bowman with a slight edge over Judy Wasylycia-Leis in the race to be Winnipeg’s next mayor.

Bowman (38 per cent) is just two percentage points ahead of the former NDP MP and MLA (36 per cent) among decided voters, according to results released this morning.

Rounding out the mayoral candidate field is Robert Falcon-Ouelette (14 per cent), Gord Steeves (9 per cent), Paula Havixbeck (2 per cent), David Sanders (1 per cent) and Michel Fillion (0 per cent).

Not sure whether to put any stock in this poll. While I believe Steeves at 9 percent, given the mean-spirited trainwreck of a campaign he's run, I don't believe Robert Falcon-Ouelette is anywhere near 14 percent, or that he is ahead of Steeves for that matter.

What I do buy is that JWL's numbers have continued to stay flat and may now even be declining somewhat. I also buy that the non-JWL vote is probably coalescing around Bowman. But for Bowman to jump 15 points since the last WFP poll? Seems very unlikely.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
Not sure whether to put any stock in this poll. While I believe Steeves at 9 percent, given the mean-spirited trainwreck of a campaign he's run, I don't believe Robert Falcon-Ouelette is anywhere near 14 percent, or that he is ahead of Steeves for that matter.

What I do buy is that JWL's numbers have continued to stay flat and may now even be declining somewhat. I also buy that the non-JWL vote is probably coalescing around Bowman. But for Bowman to jump 15 points since the last WFP poll? Seems very unlikely.

[url=http://www.winnipegsun.com/2014/10/17/wasylycia-leis-on-the-attack]Might explain this little tidbit:[/url]

Quote:
Flyers delivered on Thursday night attacking opponent Brian Bowman’s inexperience show the frontrunner is setting her sights on bringing down Bowman in the final push before the Oct. 22 election.

The brochure consists of a less-than-flattering photo of Bowman, with a quote stating, “Brian Bowman has run a good campaign and cares about our city, but being mayor isn’t an entry-level job.”

The bottom two lines highlight his “uncosted” plan for completing the bus rapid transit system by 2030 and his proposed municipal sales tax.

Recent polls show Wasylycia-Leis in the lead, but with Bowman’s stock rising he’s taken second place over candidate Gord Steeves.

The irony is that the right-wingers on the Free Press are cheering on Bowman to stop a socialist mayor from being elected even though Bowman's platfrom is more expensive than Judy's.

Stockholm

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The irony is that the right-wingers on the Free Press are cheering on Bowman to stop a socialist mayor from being elected even though Bowman's platfrom is more expensive than Judy's.

Sounds familiar - in Toronto the so-called conservtaive candidates Ford and Tory each want to waste a billion dollars on the Scarborough subway to nowhere and have totally uncosted transit plans with no way to pay for anything. Olivia Chow is the only fiscally responsible candidate - yet gyuess who is backed by the Sun and the Globe?

genstrike

ghoris wrote:

I don't believe Robert Falcon-Ouelette is anywhere near 14 percent, or that he is ahead of Steeves for that matter.

Why not?  Seems to me like he's tapped into something and has a decent following in some circles, including a lot of left-leaning folks who are less than enthused about Judy.  I see a lot of people supporting him on facebook.

PrairieDemocrat15

OUellette could well be at 14%, but I doubt Steeves is at 9%. That is too low. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Aristotleded24

Anybody see the big wrap-around ad for Bowman or the inside cover ad for Steeves on today's Metro? I called 311 and asked if it was legal, and apparently it is. Any other Winnipeggers have reactions to this?

genstrike

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Anybody see the big wrap-around ad for Bowman or the inside cover ad for Steeves on today's Metro? I called 311 and asked if it was legal, and apparently it is. Any other Winnipeggers have reactions to this?

The Metro is a newspaper and they sell ad space.  Any candidate could have bought ad space with the money and the inclination.  I don't see the big deal.

Though, I think the Metro should be a little more careful regarding the wrap-around because at first glance it looked like they were endorsing Bowman on the cover.

Aristotleded24

genstrike wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Anybody see the big wrap-around ad for Bowman or the inside cover ad for Steeves on today's Metro? I called 311 and asked if it was legal, and apparently it is. Any other Winnipeggers have reactions to this?

The Metro is a newspaper and they sell ad space.  Any candidate could have bought ad space with the money and the inclination.  I don't see the big deal.

I just think it's at the very least, unethical to have such an ad run right on election day. There are restrictions on ads at other levels of government, I think those restrictions should also be extended to municipal politics.

ghoris

I take your point, but I always felt some of the restrictions about E-day advertising were a little silly. I've seen DROs make members of the public take candidates' buttons off in polling places, for example. Friends of my parents used to have to take their lawn signs down on election day because their house was within a certain distance from a polling place. I think these types of restrictions insult the intelligence of the voting public - I think it's a bit artificial to say ads on E-1 day are OK, ads on E-day are not. 

Moreover, JWL was also perfectly free to advertise on E-day if she so chose.

Turning to the council races, why do I keep hearing rumblings about an upset in Transcona? Wyatt looks pretty unbeatable, but does anyone have any intel they can share? 

Some of my friends who are working on JWL's campaign think Jonasson has a good shot in St. James. Ditto Hrynyk in Old Kildonan.

FWIW, those same friends were convinced in 2010 that JWL was going to knock off Sam but are rather pessimistic about her chances now. Hopefully they're just trying to not get their hopes up too high.

genstrike

ghoris wrote:

Turning to the council races, why do I keep hearing rumblings about an upset in Transcona? Wyatt looks pretty unbeatable, but does anyone have any intel they can share?

I've heard that a lot of people think he's been there too long, he's a little overboard with the self-promotion, and aren't happy with his flip-flopping about whether to run for council or for a federal seat.

Also, I was driving through Transcona last weekend and it seemed like Ray Ulasy was doing fairly well in the sign war.

genstrike

ghoris wrote:

I take your point, but I always felt some of the restrictions about E-day advertising were a little silly. I've seen DROs make members of the public take candidates' buttons off in polling places, for example. Friends of my parents used to have to take their lawn signs down on election day because their house was within a certain distance from a polling place. I think these types of restrictions insult the intelligence of the voting public - I think it's a bit artificial to say ads on E-1 day are OK, ads on E-day are not. 

Moreover, JWL was also perfectly free to advertise on E-day if she so chose.

Also, last-minute phone calls and other GOTV efforts are widely accepted.  What's the difference between seeing a Steeves ad in the Metro and getting a phone call from JWL?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

JFC, can it be that Bowman is going to take this? Ugh, this has gone from a horrific to a stomach turning day.

PrairieDemocrat15

Shocking result. I can't stand Bowman. Ugh.

PrairieDemocrat15

Council breakdown:

Right:

Mayor - Bowman

Charleswood Tuxedo - Morantz

North Kildonan - Browaty

St. Charles - Dobson

St. James-Brooklands - Gillingham

St. Norbert - Lukes

Transcona - Wyatt

Left:

Daniel Mcintyre - Gilroy

Elmwood-East Kildonan - Schreyer

Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry - Gerbasi

Mynarski - Eadie

River Heights-Fort Garry - Orlikow

St. Boniface - Allard

St. Vital - Mayes

Wildcards:

Old Kildonan - Sharma (recount possible?)

Point Douglas - Pagtakhan

The left and right on council (including the mayor) are evenly split. We could see some very close votes over the next four years. Bowman will probably try to bring folks like Orlikow and Pagtakhan onside by giving them an EPC seat.

 

Centrist

1. October 4  - Probe Research releases CATI opinion poll with 602 sample size and these results:

Wasylycia-Leis - 41%

Bowman - 23%

http://www.probe-research.com/documents/141002%20Civic%20Election%20Surv...

Looks like a Wasylycia-Leis landslide in the making.

 

2. October 20 - Insightrix Research releases CATI opinion poll with 802 sample size and these results:

Bowman - 38%

Wasylycia-Leis - 36%

http://globalnews.ca/news/1623424/winnipeg-election-new-poll-shows-mayor...

Race tightened up for some apparent reason. What happened?

 

3. Today October 22 - e-day and the electorate speaks:

Bowman - 47.5%

Wasylycia-Leis - 25%

Basically a Bowman landslide with a 22.5% winning margin. WTF happened?!

Man, these 2 CATI polls blew it - big time. Don't understand that either.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

The Bowman victory is depressing. At least he's not openly racist like Steeves but sh*t, this sucks.

PrairieDemocrat15

Bowman shifted to the right in the last few weeks and really hammed Judy for supporting severance and not commenting on the PST increase. Judy's not a great speaker or debater. She tends to ramble and can make small gaffes which the media, and of course Adler and Broadbeck, hammered her on. That doesn't explain this horrible result, though. I don't think the polls did any analsyis of likley voters. I'm sure turnout was much higher in Charleswood, Tuxedo, and River East than it was in St. Johns, Point Douglas, and Elmwood. In a provinical election this isn't a big problem becuase each seat is its own little race. Tha fact that NDP ridings have lower turnout doesn't matter as long as they still win the seat. In a mayoral race, where the entire city is one riding, this hurts politcians who appeal to groups that don't come out to vote in such numbers. Perhaps that's why, historically, Winnipeg has not elected many left-leaning mayors, but does elected left-leaning councillors and MPs and MLAs.

Aristotleded24

laine lowe wrote:
JFC, can it be that Bowman is going to take this? Ugh, this has gone from a horrific to a stomach turning day.

[url=http://www.brandonsun.com/breaking-news/Brandon-mayoral-race-results-280...'s a doubly disappointing night for me as a former Brandonite as well[/url]

Aristotleded24

Centrist wrote:
1. October 4  - Probe Research releases CATI opinion poll with 602 sample size and these results:

Wasylycia-Leis - 41%

Bowman - 23%

http://www.probe-research.com/documents/141002%20Civic%20Election%20Surv...

Looks like a Wasylycia-Leis landslide in the making.

 

2. October 20 - Insightrix Research releases CATI opinion poll with 802 sample size and these results:

Bowman - 38%

Wasylycia-Leis - 36%

http://globalnews.ca/news/1623424/winnipeg-election-new-poll-shows-mayor...

Race tightened up for some apparent reason. What happened?

 

3. Today October 22 - e-day and the electorate speaks:

Bowman - 47.5%

Wasylycia-Leis - 25%

Basically a Bowman landslide with a 22.5% winning margin. WTF happened?!

Judy's team took it for granted that the lead would hold up and that she could slide in on a right-wing vote split between Steeves and Bowman. To be honest, I don't even think these polls were accurate in the first place. The big lesson that we need to learn here is that polls are completely irrelevant (witness polling failures in British Columbia, Alberta, Winnipeg City, Brandon City, and I bet the results in Toronto will prove polling wildly inaccurate as well) and that campaigns do matter. What's even stranger is that there were a couple of people I talked to long before the campaign and before Bowman was a household name who thought Bowman could do well. If a couple of people on the street could have anticipated this, why was Judy's team caught by surprise?

I agree with PD's assessment of Judy's debating and speaking skills, which is a shame because that is exactly where she fell down last time. In terms of organization, I remember being invited to a meeting in the summer of 2011 about that very topic, and then...nothing, until this past winter, when Judy had a gathering of her loyal fans at her house to chart a course of where the city needs to go. That's not nearly enough organizing that needs to be done on a grassroots level. And I got the sense that she hadn't done enough to expand her knowledge of the issues, and really work on her debating and public speaking. Seriously, she was thinking of running again, what was she doing all this time?

As for Bowman, I have to give him his due. He ran a campaign which hit on some themes of urban vision, such as finishing rapid transit by 2030, opening Portage and Main, and putting forward a plan to end homelessness. In a way, he became the "visionary" candidate, while Judy represented the status quo, for example on only completing one leg of rapid transit or criticizing Bowman's plans as being unaffordable. I think part of that is that people were so tired of hearing excuses for why Winnipeg couldn't do this or couldn't do that, and they said enough.

Anyways, I'm not necessarily thrilled that he won, but I'm prepared to see what kind of government he deliveres.

In any case, it's not all bad news. Here are some good things:

  • Steen lost in Elmwood
  • Every left-wing ward stayed in that column
  • It's nice to see Falcon-Ouelette beat Steeves
  • Lukes will at least be an advocate for more active transportation

I think it's also safe to say that Judy's career in politics is over.

PrairieDemocrat15

I'm curious what kind of coalition Bowman managed to build to get 47%. I know he has lots of Liberal support, but I think he may have also stolen some votes from people who might normally vote NDP. He didn't make any very right-wing promises. He mentioned his support of P3s when 'they make sense and are transparent.' Judy also supported building the rest of the TW as a P3 as long was consistent with her transparency goals. He also spoke a lot about his 2% efficencies (based on Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson's failed plan: http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/1078568/city-of-edmonton-administratio...). But again, the provincial NDP is cutting department budgets, so I think its only fair to give him the benefit of the doubt on this as I have given the NDP. His idea to replace property taxes with a sales tax is terrible, but at least he acknowldged that such a plan would have to include measures to mitiagte the negative impact this would have on renters and the poor. His plan for two-tiered pensions for new City hires is the only promise for him I could classify as very right-wing.

I guess this is to say I'm more suspicous of him because of who backed him (he is so shamelessly the Chamber candidate) than what he has proposed or how he has campaigned.

ghoris

Aristotle's analysis is spot on. I really have nothing substantive to add, except to say that I don't think that JWL's speaking or debating ability was the deciding factor (and I don't consider her to be a particularly poor speaker or debater in any event). The deciding factor was that she ran a content-free non-campaign consisting of a bunch of ribbon-cutting appearances and vague promises about "plans to plan". By running a 'safe', 'front-runner' campaign offering nothing beyond tinkering around the margins, she became the status quo candidate.

By contrast, Bowman ran a policy-heavy campaign straight out of the Naheed Nenshi playbook (I think he was the only one who had a plan to attract new residents to downtown). And even though JWL and Ouellette's votes combined still would have been less than Bowman's total, Ouellette obviously attracted a lot of left-leaning voters who were looking for more substance than what JWL had on offer.

Bowman will have to govern by consensus given the council split. I agree for the most part with PD's characterization, although I'm not sure if Dobson is necessarily classed as "right". He has not belonged to any party, whereas his predecessor Nordman was a card-carrying Tory. I stand to be corrected, though.

I would call Wyatt a wild card as well. If he thinks he can get a few headlines out of attacking Bowman, he won't hesitate to do so.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
In his concession speech, RFO said he may run in 2018 if Bowman is not "doing great." I think if anyone can knock-off an incument mayor, it would be him (as long as he is the only major left-leaning candidate).

Possibly, but remember that even Sam Katz was re-elected, and whatever mis-steps Bowman makes, I can't ever see him getting to that level of unpopularity that Katz had. Katz had an arrogance that he didn't feel he had to listen to anybody outside of his cronies who got him elected. Bowman will be out and about and he won't make that mistake.

As for Falcon-Ouelette, I'm not sure he would accept the "left" label, but that gives an interesting possibility. There has been talk on the question and the idea has come up that progressives should expand beyond the traditional NDP. Orlikow is a good example. He had a solid voting record last term, and had the support of many on the left, but if he had run as an explicitly NDP-endorsed candidate, he would be toast.

In any case, he's under 40, so I hope he at least runs for council next time. He probably has a high enough profile that he could win in a number of wards with or without an incumbent.

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
"If elected Mayor Bowman has committed to:

Have all six positions on EPC electable.  Members of council would elect six members to EPC and submit the recommendation to the Mayor for approval and appointment. This would expedite the appointment process and could be enacted without amending the City of Winnipeg Charter. Council members would be elected to EPC for a period of two years."

If he sticks to this it would certainly frustrate the Right's agenda at City hall. A pro-mayor EPC is not guaranteed given the almost evenly divided council. A mixed EPC will make it even more difficult than it already will be for Bowman to implement his plans.

That's a step up from what we had, and it's nice that the mayor can't kick people off EPC. Might encourage some actual debate rather than EPC members changing their spots once chosen by the Mayor *cough*Vandal*cough*

I'll also say something about Gord Steeves. He really could have capitalized on the public opposition to routing rapid transit through the Parker Wetlands, and I dare say, could have even won on that issue. Unfortunately his campaign took a sharp turn to the far right, and he essentially campaigned as Sam Katz' direct successor. His mishandling of his wife's racist posting on Facebook didn't help him either.

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