2016 Manitoba Election - a general thread?

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Aristotleded24

laine lowe wrote:
Why is the media so shy to go after his fundie Christian theocratic beliefs? An Elder I work with told me that Pallister belongs to the same <strikeout>cult</strikeout> church that Harper belongs to - Christian Alliance.

You would be frightened of how many voters in this province would see that as a plus for him.

quizzical
Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-constituencies-... are CBC's 15 ridings to watch.[/url] Any predictions? Here are mine:

  1. Assiniboia-PC
  2. Brandon-EastNo Call
  3. Fort Richmond-PC
  4. Fort Rouge-Liberal
  5. Gimli-PC
  6. Kirkfield Park-PC
  7. Riel-PC
  8. River Heights-Liberal
  9. Rossmere-PC
  10. St. Norbert-PC
  11. St. Vital-PC
  12. Southdale-PC
  13. St. James-PC
  14. St. John's-NDP
  15. Wolseley-NDP

ETA: Thanks quizzical, got it fixed!Smile

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

CBC has already called it at PC majority. I can't believe my riding is going Liberal. F8ck.

Once privatization of crown corporations roll in, I will be casting an eye for geriatric job opportunities outside the province.

genstrike

It's neck and neck in Wolseley... I'm hoping for a Green win there.  Also... wow, the northern seats are close...

Aristotleded24

Selinger speaking right now. Wow, his arrogance and ego is really shining through! It took him so long into the speech to congratulate Pallister or Bokhari, and platitudes for candidates who deserved much better than having to work for a party he helped run into the ground!

Aristotleded24

Selinger has just resigned. One bright spot in an otherwise bleak evening.

bekayne

Pallister giving his speech. He seems to think the campaign is still on.

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

Well, that sucked.

bekayne

Global cutting out during Pallister's speech

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Wab Kinew has won his Fort Rouge riding and Rana Bokhari came in third.  Looks like the second and third parties might be getting new leaders.

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:
Pallister giving his speech. He seems to think the campaign is still on.

Did anyone else catch the hypocrisy in the PCs hitting Selinger over the head with the Cabinet rebellion and then Pallister saying he personally has no patience for disloyalty?

Aristotleded24

We won't have a full picture of what Manitobans really think until the turn-out figures are relesed. Here's some food for thought:

Many polls had the undecided vote at close to 20% with the PCs at their traditional 45-ish percent. Take out this undecided factor and the PCs are well over 50%. I think what happened is that many NDP supporters were not inspired by their party so they simply stayed home. This appears to have happened in Thompson, where (according to Wikipedia right now) Ashton had the backing of only a fraction of the 3000-ish votes he usually wins. If this number had held, he would have defeated his PC challenger, even though the PCs are up.

Aristotleded24

There's even more bad news on the turn-out front. The ridings with the lowest average turn-out were ridings that the NDP held. Thompson and Keewatinook were the only non-NDP ridings that had lower than 50% turn-out. So how can the NDP claim to represent "the people" when their MLAs were unable to motivate their own constituents to come out in large numbers?

This is the danger of a disengaged public. A riding that looks "safe" because one party has a strong machine can easily fall when another party surges in popularity.

Even in higher turn-out ridings, close to 2 in 5 voters abstained. Something is broken in Manitoba politics.

Basement Dweller

It could have been worse. Just look next door at Saskatchewan.

nicky

The map actually favoured the NDP. It lost by 55 to 25% but still got 14 seats, several by narrow margins. In Sakatchewan it was outpolled by only 2 to 1 and got only 10 seats in a slightly larger legislature.

The PC majorities in rural Manitoba were just crushing. The only silver lings are Selinger's departure and the inability of the third parties to emerge as contenders. At least the NDP remains the alternative.

Basement Dweller

Grenier's Liberal projections were totally off, other than Gerrard. On one hand he thought Rana would win her seat, but she came in a distant third (21%). But he was totally wrong on the two seats the Liberals actually did pick up. He thought the Liberals would only get 9% in Keewatinook, but they won in with 49%. He also predicted Liberal Cindy Lamoureux would come in third in Burrows with 23% but she won with 46%.

He had the Liberals at five seats, but he was only right on one of them. Overall, his riding projections were useless. He only got the most obvious ones. CBC must be paying him for this, so they should ask him to discontinue that part of his analysis.

Worst projections ever.

robbie_dee

While obviously this result sucks for the NDP it's got to be a crushing result for the MB Liberals. Sure they picked up 2 seats but at the beginning of the election they looked poised to at least pass the NDP for official opposition. When, as will be inevitable, opposition begins to build against the PC government it will probably naturally coalesce around the NDP again. The Liberals remain essentially irrelevant. How did they shoot themselves in the feet so badly?

quizzical

by being Liberals?

Unionist

robbie_dee wrote:

The Liberals remain essentially irrelevant. How did they shoot themselves in the feet so badly?

They've been irrelevant in Manitoba for 50 years, except for one uptick in 1988 under Sharon Carstairs. They fill no need on the political spectrum. Nothing new this time round.

bekayne

Basement Dweller wrote:

Grenier's Liberal projections were totally off, other than Gerrard. On one hand he thought Rana would win her seat, but she came in a distant third (21%). But he was totally wrong on the two seats the Liberals actually did pick up. He thought the Liberals would only get 9% in Keewatinook, but they won in with 49%. He also predicted Liberal Cindy Lamoureux would come in third in Burrows with 23% but she won with 46%.

He had the Liberals at five seats, but he was only right on one of them. Overall, his riding projections were useless. He only got the most obvious ones. CBC must be paying him for this, so they should ask him to discontinue that part of his analysis.

Worst projections ever.

No, I think this one was worse:

He seems totally delusional about the Liberals. Even if they could get 12.8%, like he projects, they will probably just keep their one incumbent (former leader Jon Gerrard). But all the polls have the Liberals in the 5-9% range, and doing worse in Winnipeg than the rest of the province, meaning a big goose egg. 

swallow

Grenier himself says his riding projections are not actually projections. They simply reflect plugging in poll numbers and assuming a random swing across all ridings. he knows that never happens, but it gives the basis for his seat projections, which are usually much closer. 

The NDP must be relieved. They saved some seats, don't need to worry about a Green presence in the legislature, and remain the only real alternative to the Pallister governemnt - which will presumably be terrible. That provides  a clear path abck to pwoer for them. 

Bright lights: Nahanni Fontaine, Wab Kinew, Amanda Lathlin, Kevin Chief: 4 First Nations leaders that bring a diverse wealth of knowledge to the table. 

With 2 Filipino-Canadians (Flor and Ted Marcelino) elected for the NDP in Winnipeg, that's an impressively high percentage of people from marginalized racialized communities in the NDP delegation to the legislature (and half of these 6 are women). Maybe poverty and racism can move to front and centre in the NDP response to what's coming? 

ikosmos ikosmos's picture

swallow wrote:
With 2 Filipino-Canadians (Flor and Ted Marcelino) elected for the NDP in Winnipeg, that's an impressively high percentage of people from marginalized racialized communities in the NDP delegation to the legislature (and half of these 6 are women). Maybe poverty and racism can move to front and centre in the NDP response to what's coming? 

Yeah, or some other white guy's ego will get in the way ... again. But it's a nice thought.

swallow

Oh, probably. But just let me see this one tiny silver lining, just for 24 hours? Please? Just this once? Wink 

Basement Dweller

bekayne wrote:

Basement Dweller wrote:

Grenier's Liberal projections were totally off, other than Gerrard. On one hand he thought Rana would win her seat, but she came in a distant third (21%). But he was totally wrong on the two seats the Liberals actually did pick up. He thought the Liberals would only get 9% in Keewatinook, but they won in with 49%. He also predicted Liberal Cindy Lamoureux would come in third in Burrows with 23% but she won with 46%.

He had the Liberals at five seats, but he was only right on one of them. Overall, his riding projections were useless. He only got the most obvious ones. CBC must be paying him for this, so they should ask him to discontinue that part of his analysis.

Worst projections ever.

No, I think this one was worse:

He seems totally delusional about the Liberals. Even if they could get 12.8%, like he projects, they will probably just keep their one incumbent (former leader Jon Gerrard). But all the polls have the Liberals in the 5-9% range, and doing worse in Winnipeg than the rest of the province, meaning a big goose egg. 

I predicted "about 15" seats for the NDP so I was closer on that one. Read what I said closer to the election. Besides its not like i get paid to do this.

Results: 14 NDP 3 Lib

Grenier: 9 NDP 5 Lib

Me: 15 NDP 0-1 Lib

Post#46 Laughing

 

 

 

Basement Dweller

swallow wrote:

Grenier himself says his riding projections are not actually projections. They simply reflect plugging in poll numbers and assuming a random swing across all ridings. he knows that never happens, but it gives the basis for his seat projections, which are usually much closer.

Fair enough. My only concern is if people use this to decide how to vote in their riding.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

swallow wrote:

Oh, probably. But just let me see this one tiny silver lining, just for 24 hours? Please? Just this once? Wink 

I agree with you and you lifted my spirits in spite of these dismal results. Four indigenous and two Filipino MLAs is a nice break from so many older white guys. Plus I am happy with Ovide Mercredi as the Party President. We also have decent Tribal Council and Assembly of Chiefs leaders.

swallow

And I missed Mohinder Saran! 

Unionist

laine lowe wrote:
Plus I am happy with Ovide Mercredi as the Party President.

Oh my god. Not.

genstrike

For me, since the result was pretty much expected, the biggest disappointment of the night was Wolseley.  I was really hoping that the Greens would win, because it would be the first time in a very long time that there has been a viable challenger from the left, even if only in a handful of ridings, to the NDP.  It could have motivated the NDP to really get with the times.  It also would have been good to have a Green voice in the legislature, as they have some policies which are very progressive compared to the NDP and Dave Nickarz would have been a good MLA.

Thompson was the biggest surprise, hands down.

genstrike

double post

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
The map actually favoured the NDP. It lost by 55 to 25% but still got 14 seats, several by narrow margins. In Sakatchewan it was outpolled by only 2 to 1 and got only 10 seats in a slightly larger legislature.

The PC majorities in rural Manitoba were just crushing. The only silver lings are Selinger's departure and the inability of the third parties to emerge as contenders. At least the NDP remains the alternative.

I would not count on that. The NDP Caucus we've elected has no experience being in Opposition, so it's going to be a fight, and in addition the NDP will be wearing the baggage of having broken its promise not to raise the PST for years to come. When you look at the Liberals, despite the fact that it was a trainwreck of a campagin, they still managed to have 3 seats, which is their best showing in 21 years. For the first time, they can look for a leader within Caucus. Cindy Lameroux, for example, would be well positioned to capitalize on the Liberal networks and build the party from there. And if Trudeau remains popular in 2019 (and we shouldn't take it as an inevitability that he won't) that will work in the Liberal's favour, and they can easily ride public disconent with the PCs and the NDP.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/rana-bokhari-not-stepping-down-1.... somebody explain...just please...what's going on here?[/url]

Quote:
Rana Bokhari is not stepping down as leader of the Manitoba Liberals.

In fact, she said, she never considered quitting.

"Now is not the time to disrupt anything, we've got to keep moving forward," Bokhari said after a meeting held in the Manitoba Liberal provincial office Thursday evening. 

Bokhari led the Liberals to triple their seats in the Manitoba Legislature on Tuesday — from one to three sitting Liberal MLAs but she faced some significant disappointments on election day as well.

Bokhari was unable to win a seat for herself in Fort Rouge, losing to the NDP's Wab Kinew. And the Liberals fell short of capturing four seats in the legislature, meaning they are unable to meet the threshold for official party status and the perks that come with it.

What a gong show. Please tell me how a party that ran a campaign as incompetently as the Liberals ends up with 3 seats, and a well-run campaign by the Greens that tried very hard to tap into the disillusionment with all 3 political parties wins none?

Ugh. Welcome to Manitoba politics.

mark_alfred

Statement by Mulcair:  http://bcove.me/61f1pggj

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/wife-of-former-cabinet-minister-g... NDP MLA Drew Caldwell's wife granted protection order:[/url]

Quote:
Testimony under oath from Caldwell's wife alleges a pattern of him verbally threatening her, pushing her into doors so he could say "it was an accident" and frequently showing up at places where he knew she would be.

"He is smart person; it has been done in such a way he can explain it away," she told a Winnipeg Court of Queen's Bench justice late last month.

The judge granted the protection order in late May. It bans Caldwell from being within 200 metres of his wife's property or place of work.

When asked if she had ever called the police on him, she said, "He is a public figure so there was added pressure not to do anything about it."

Caldwell has not been charged with an offence and can apply to the Court of Queen’s Bench to have the order cancelled. A protection order is a court order, granted on an urgent basis, forbidding the respondent from having contact with the applicant.

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