Manitoba Polls

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David Young

I seem to recall that the NDP received equally bad polling numbers prior to it's fourth victory last time.

 

felixr

Stockholm wrote:
the more we stall the day that the PCs come in and institute their rightwing reign of terror.

+1

Aristotleded24

David Young wrote:
I seem to recall that the NDP received equally bad polling numbers prior to it's fourth victory last time.

Their poll numbers never collapsed this badly that they are in danger of being eclipsed by the Liberals.

There are essentially 2 factors at play: Manitobans are at the same time tired of the NDP but also fearful of the PCs. Whichever emotion comes through much more strongly will determine the election outcome.

Aristotleded24

If you check out the by-election results on CBC Manitoba's main page, the NDP is in serious danger of being over-taken in second place by the Liberals.

Aristotleded24

No surprise, the Progressive Conservatives took both ridings by healthy margins. This was a very bad night for the NDP, where they tumbled to thrid place in Arthur-Virden and were fighting for small scraps of the leftover votes in Morris.

It was a disaster for the NDP, there is no other way to put it.

Centrist

I have always held up the Manitoba NDP (and SK NDP) as models for the rest of Canada. Frankly I don't know what is happening on the ground in MB but when the MB NDP is having major problems in Brandon East, a seat that it has held for 45 years, then it is time to focus upon the eventual change of leadership of the MB NDP:

Quote:
Tories hold leads across Westman: Poll: Graeme Bruce Saturday, Feb. 1, 2014  The NDP’s 45-year reign in Brandon East would come to an end if a provincial election were held today with the Progressive Conservatives sweeping Western Manitoba, a new poll suggests. The poll, conducted by Probe Research for the Brandon Sun, finds the Conservatives have a commanding double-digit lead over the NDP — 47 per cent of those surveyed would support the Tory candidate while just 31 per cent would vote for NDP MLA Drew Caldwell, who has held the seat for 15 years, or another NDP candidate.
http://www.brandonsun.com/local/tories-hold-leads-across-westman-poll-24...

Aristotleded24

Centrist wrote:
I have always held up the Manitoba NDP (and SK NDP) as models for the rest of Canada. Frankly I don't know what is happening on the ground in MB but when the MB NDP is having major problems in Brandon East, a seat that it has held for 45 years, then it is time to focus upon the eventual change of leadership of the MB NDP

There's a great deal of factors. For one, the Saskatchewan and Manitoba NDP came to power when the Third Way (the misguided idea that capitalism can be changed to be more humane) was at its height in the world. Now the air is gone out of that balloon, and since then, we've seen social democratic parties either move left (see France and Great Britain) or fall into irrelevance (see Germany, Australia, Mexico).

The second is that the success you mention is actually quite illusory and due more to luck than anything else. The Saskatchewan NDP actually lost the popular vote in 1999, but were able to retain their seats due to the Saskatchewan Party support being piled up in rural areas. The Saskatchewan Party was poised to win in 2003 but dropped the ball. Here in Manitoba, the NDP was trailing in polling before both the 2007 and the 2011 elections, but the PCs dropped the ball again. Greg Selinger breaking his promise to not raise taxes did not help.

The third, related to item number 1, is that for many people, "NDP" stands for "No Difference Party." Romanow bragged about embracing the Third Way even before that term came to currency. In Manitoba, under the watch of Greg Selinger as Finance Minister, the previous PC policy of tax cuts continued unabated, until recently. It's also pretty hard for the NDP to claim to be the protectors of the working class when poverty remained stubburonly high under the watch of NDP governments in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. There's also an institutional arrogance within both parties (at least was present in Saskatchewan, someone please fill me in) that the party brass only ever saw the membership as there to raise funds, give free labour at election time, and to cheer on Our Glorious Leader. For example, the Manitoba NDP membership has consistently passed resolutions calling for anti-scab legislation, but the government will not touch that issue. People get tired of that kind of crap after a while and redirect their energies elsewhere. Remember that throughout the success of the Manitoba NDP, the Liberals were hardly a factor, but it's true that if you give people a choice between the real Liberals and pretend Liberals, voters will go with the real team, and that is evident in the Liberal resurgence.

This goes beyond the leadership. The NDP doesn't have any functional mechanisims with which to force Greg Selinger aside, and even if it did, it would still be his people in charge of the party anyways. The party needs a whole-sale shake-up that can only happen with a crushing defeat. My consolation is that by then the federal Conservatives will hopefully be out of office, and the new federal government can set the tone which limits the damage that Pallister can do.

Aristotleded24

Back to the polling, according to common wisdom, Winnipeg is the big battle ground. But with these polling numbers, I think it's reasonable to assume that Stan Struthers is in trouble in Dauphin as well, so that lowers the bar that the PCs need to clear in Winnipeg. And if the NDP is polling that badly in not-so-affluent Brandon East, I wonder how they are doing in their other "strongholds" as well.

As I said in a previous thread, before we find out who the next leader is, we need to see which three NDP MLAs get re-elected.

ennir

Irrelevent comment deleted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aristotleded24

Thank you for your post, PrairieDemocrat.

First off, when I say "which 3 seats the Manitoba NDP will hold," I'm exaggerating a bit, because I expect the NDP to lose the next election, and I've said countless times that the Manitoba NDP can look 1 province westward to see what its immediate and medium term future looks like.

As for "real Liberals versus fake Liberals?" Many people saw little difference between the Manitoba NDP and the federal Liberals, and indeed a centrist politician with ambitions would have gravitated to the NDP over the Liberals in the 1990s and the 2000, precisely because the NDP was in a stronger position. Now that the Liberals are gaining in strength, the centrist politicians can pursue their natural political vehicle.

As for seats? I mention Brandon East specifically because it is not an affluent constituency, and I can't help think that whatever is impacting the NDP there is also impacting its fortunes in other low income areas. The polls clearly show that the NDP would lose Brandon East were an election held today, and that in of itself is worse than 1988, because Brandon East has voted NDP since 1969. There aren't nearly enough safe northern seats to guarantee large numbers of NDP MLAs re-elected. As for your laundry list of seats? I don't expect the PCs to win Wolseley, but the Green Party currently takes in 20% of the vote with a ham sandwich, and after the results in BC, you can bet they are going to scorch their party in nearly every other seat to put themselves into serious contention in Wolseley. As for Minto, Minto has had a PC MLA for the last 10 years, he just wears the orange jacket because he's ambitious and he knows which way the political winds blow.

I'm not sure how I'm arguing that the NDP's bad fortunes are as a result of moving leftwards, in fact I have nearly a decade long history on these discussion boards arguing that the Manitoba NDP should do just that. I'm not sure if the NDP has moved noticeably leftwards under Selinger, but I would love to see examples. The best example I would point to is their stubborn refusal to raise social assistance rates to a sustainable amount. Even Brian Pallister and the Chamber of Commerce are on board with this goal, why isn't Selinger?

As for social democracy worldwide? I understand that Miliband has disappointed people on the left recently, but when he was elected he came out swinging against some of New Labour's most unpopular policies, particularly the Iraq war. Australia is a case of the party not knowing where it stands. But the main contrast I draw is between the PRD presidential campaign in Mexico in 2012, and the PS campaign in France in that same year. Obrador was lacking in bold proposals, Hollande talked about a tax on the rich. Remind me which campaign was ultimately successful at the ballot box? And I get that Hollande is unpopular right now, but don't you think that an elected leader of a country that powerful saying that the rich should pay their fair share is worth something? He is having problems, but at least he took a bold step, and I can respect that.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24, I have to disagree with you.

Your suggestion that the NDP will only elect 3 MLAs is a very strange estimate. For that the happen the party will have to do much worse than it did in 1988. That, I contend, would be very unlikely even if the party's polling numbers stay as bad as they are now (also unlikely). There are several reasons why 2016 will most likely not end up like 1988.

  1. Surprise election: Unlike in 1988, the government will know when the next election will occur. Pawley was caught completely off guard in 1988 when Jim Walding betrayed his party and brought down the government, forcing the unpopular NDP into an election it was not expecting. The next election will occur in 2015 or 2016, with the latter being most likely. Either way, the government will have plenty of warning.
  2. Polling: Even with 26% support the party is doing better than it was before the 1988 election. Then, the NDP was polling in third with numbers in the single digits.
  3. The Liberals: The Liberal resurgence this time around is not nearly as big a threat. Going into 1988 the Manitoba Liberals were on the upswing, having gained seats and votes in previous elections; the opposite has been happening in the last decade. Moreover, in 1988 the Liberals had a popular leader who ran a single-issue campaign against the unpopular Meech Lake Accord. Finally, in 1988 the Liberal surge was concentrated in central and northern Winnipeg, draining NDP support. This time around, the Liberals have increased their vote more in rural areas than in Winnipeg and their support in the city is strongest in the more PC-friendly south, making them less of a threat to the NDP's heartland of support in the centre of the city. Finally, the new Liberal leader is unexperienced, unknown, and most likely ineffectual.

Based on recent polling and the by-election results it seems the NDP has lost around 20 percentage points of its 2011 support. If this was to continue to election day (unlikely), the party would lose many seats. However, it would not be a repeat of 1988 and would certainly not leave them with only 3 seats. Losses would be concentrated in the south and edges of Winnipeg and the more southern northern ridings like Dauphin and Swan River. However, most of the party's seats in the centre of Winnipeg and the far north of the province would stay orange. The NDP won most of these ridings by 30 point margins. Even with the NDP's 23 point drop of support in the city and the PCs and Liberals 6 and 11 point respective gains, the party would still hold on to most of its seats central and northwest Winnipeg. They would also retain several in the northeast like St. Boniface and Concordia. Do you really think the PCs will capture ridings like Minto, Point Douglas, Wolseley, Elmwood, and St. Johns? Or for that matter far northern ridings like the Pas, Thompson, and Flin Flon The most likely result given current polling seems to be a PC majority, with an NDP Opposition and a slightly strengthened Liberal party. I think it would look like inverse of the present legislature with the PCs having a seat count in the mid- to high 30s, the NDP around 20, and the Liberals with 3 or 4. A huge defeat for the NDP, but not the thrashing you predict.

If you're a socialist, I don't understand why you seem so excited at the possibility of the province's most left-wing party being crushed in the next election. It seems you want it to happen. If it the party were to only win 3 seats and be relegated to third-party status, it would be very difficult for the NDP to ever recover from that, especially without a popular leader like Gary Doer. I think that would be a very bad development for left-wing politics in Manitoba.

I also take issue with your argument that the NDP's present bad fortunes are the result of its l̶e̶f̶t̶w̶a̶r̶d̶ righward shift since Gary Doer became leader. You are twisting facts and using weak logic to support this line of argument. While I don't disagree with your contention that the NDP has turned to the right since at least 1999, and I think this has caused the sharp drop in voter turnout since then, it is not the cause of the party's present problems. You even said people are turning to the Liberals because the NDP has been acting like Liberals, That claim does not mesh with the facts. Indeed, since 1999 the provincial Liberal vote in Manitoba has steadily shrunk in each election to the point that 2011 was one of the party's worse results. Since 1990, as the NDP has moved to the centre, the Liberal vote has shrunk and the NDP vote has grown. It seems the exact opposite of what you suggest has been happening: as the NDP has moderate itself, they have stole Liberal votes. Only in 1981 did the Liberals get fewer vote than they did in any election after 1999. It’s clear the recent NDP losses and Liberal gains are the result of the PST fiasco, not longer-term changes in party ideology.

Finally, I question the accuracy of your observations on social democracy worldwide. Although I detest and oppose neoliberals, I do admit that all major political parties in almost all countries (except maybe North Korea and Cuba) generally govern within a very broad neoliberal framework. This still leaves room for many left-wing policies and parties and countries differentiate with how many socialist tenants they retain and how much neoliberalism they adopt, but the general principles of neoliberalim are still accepted. Explain to me how the British Labour Party and French Socialist Party has condemned neoliberalism? President Hollande raised taxes, but has he done anything else? Moreover, he is very unpopular right now so I don’t know how helpful his relative leftism has been for the Parti Socialist. Ed Milliband may have shed the worse New Labour policies, but I don't think Labour has retuned to the ideas of Clem Attlee and Harold Wilson. Besides, disavowing the policies of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown does not make one a socialist. The New Labour governments were to the right of many Liberal and PC Canadian governments and certainly to the right of the NDP. Blair and Brown privatized many state companies and deregulated industry and banking. Most parties in Canada oppose such policies and so does the Manitoba NDP. I think Milliband has simply returned Labour to a more moderate centre-left position more similar to the one it help under Neil Kinnock. Tell my how Milliband’s Labour party is more left wing than any New Democratic Party in Canada. Also where do you get that the Australian Labor Party has become irrelevant? Not five years ago that party controlled every government in Australia. One bad federal election means they are no longer a force? Besides, that defeat was hardly the result of the party being to right wing. I would say the unpopularity of the leftist mineral super-tax and emissions trading scheme better explain the 2013 loss. However, I will say that some right wing policies of the Queensland and NSW ALP, especially privatization, did contribute to their recent crushing defeats (however the electorate replaced them with even more right-wing, privatization-friendly Liberal governments).

PrairieDemocrat15

Thanks for your reasoned response.

When I made my initial critique, I did not know your 3 MLA projection was hyperbole. I admit it is not outside the realm of possibility, but from where things stand now, 15-20 seats seems more likely.

I understand peoples' disillusionment with the NDP since the party's 1990s acceptance of most of neoliberalism. However, I would still never compare the MB NDP to the Chretien-Martin Liberals. The federal liberals in the 90s and early 2000s slashed spending and privatized many services and crown corps. Thankfully, the NDP  - unlike Britain's New Labour and most state branches of the ALP - have not entertained privatization and degregulation in a significant way. I think all parties in Canada (and most of the world) shifted to the right since the 1980s-1990s, but the degree of difference between the parties have generally not changed. In fact, I would even go as far to say that Selinger and Justin Trudeau are more different ideologically and policy-wise than Scheyer and Trudeau Sr. were.

I won't take the NDP loosing Brandon East as seriously as them loosing Point Douglas or Logan. Although the NDP has owned Brandon East, most of its victories were by much slimmer margins than those it has enjoyed in central and northern Winnipeg. And I doubt the Greens will take Wolseley. The did not come close last election and are nowhere near as popular as the BC Greens.

In my last post I wrote leftward when I meant righward. The MB NDP has shifted to the right since Doer. And I haven't seen much movement either way since Selinger took over. I diagree with your statement that the NDP's rightward shift is responsible for the party's current misfortune and the provincal Liberals' increase in popularity. Neverthless, I agree that the party needs to turn to the left and I don't think that would hurt them electorally. I think emulating some of the more leftist rhetoric of Hollande and some US figures (Bernie Sanders, Bill de Blasio) would inspire the party's base. Talking a little more about economic inequality and corporate greed will only turn-off hard right-winngers who wouldn't vote NDP anyways.

I don't know anything about Mexican politics so I can;t speak to your example on that. I don't know if Hollande has done anything particualry socialist (in the broad sense of the word) beyond his tax increase. Any example would be helpful. I do agree with you on the value of his rhetoric and stance on inequality, and, as I expressed in the previous paragraph, the NDP would do well to adopt some of these talking points, instead of hammering on about the PC boogeyman and ATM fees.

Aristotleded24

Thanks PraireDemocrat.

I also want to correct something else I said upthread. It is not the case that the Greens regularly poll at 20% in Wolseley with a ham sandwich running on that label, as I characterised it. What is true is that the Greens polled second to the NDP there in 2003, 2007, and 2011. Only in the case of 2003 and 2011 did they actually reach 20%, although they did finish second in each of those contests. I maintain that the Greens have nowhere to go but up in Wolseley, and when Altermeyer steps down, things will definitely become very interesting.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbDx4X_5cJQ]When you run with scissors, someone will get hurt[/url]

NorthReport

Former Manitoba Liberal Party president joins Tories, eyes nomination

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/former-manitoba-liberal-par...

Adam T

I came out of retirement just because I was surprised nobody has posted this yet:

 

New research shows the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives hold a considerable lead in the province with a 12-point advantage over the governing NDP.

“Manitobans are looking for an alternative and we believe we are that, but we have to work hard to prove that,” said Brian Pallister, Manitoba PC party leader.

A CTV Winnipeg/Winnipeg Free Press poll conducted by Probe Research found 42 per cent of decided Manitoba voters support the PC party. This is a slight decrease from the 45 per cent support recorded by the party in June 2014.

30 per cent of decided voters said they would vote for the NDP in a hypothetical general election while 20 per cent would choose the Liberals, up four per cent since June.

Read more: http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/pcs-hold-most-support-in-manitoba-political-landscape-poll-1.2046369#ixzz3GEXAwenN

The NDP continue the slow climb back to making the next election a contest after the PST increase.

 

Aristotleded24

The right-wing has prevailed in Brandon and Winnipeg civic elections. I wonder what impact this will have provincially in 2016? Will Drew Caldwell hold on to Brandon-East?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I think these 2 municipal elections bode poorly on the NDP and Sellinger in particular. I'm not a fan of Gary Doer who always reminded me of a Prairie version of Tony Blair and who seems pretty darn happy being Harper's minion in Washington DC. But he had a spark, a way with glad handing that kept the public sweet on him by and large.

Both Judy and Olivia are hard-working, sincere and compassionate politicians and neither one has the charisma to make people want to vote. It's sad but true. Sellinger has even less.

Aristotleded24

laine lowe wrote:
Both Judy and Olivia are hard-working, sincere and compassionate politicians and neither one has the charisma to make people want to vote. It's sad but true. Sellinger has even less.

Indeed Sellinger is challenged in the charisma department, but one thing he has going for him is not being Brian Pallister.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

laine lowe wrote:
Both Judy and Olivia are hard-working, sincere and compassionate politicians and neither one has the charisma to make people want to vote. It's sad but true. Sellinger has even less.

Indeed Sellinger is challenged in the charisma department, but one thing he has going for him is not being Brian Pallister.

Yeah, Pallister is no Brad Wall, no Brian Bowman.

PrairieDemocrat15

I think it would be wise of Selinger to strike some kind of deal with Bowman on PST revenue-sharing. It would put the PCs, who are doggedly committed to rolling back the PST, in a tight spot as I doubt their friend in the Mayor's chair would support that.

David Young

Is there a list of present NDP members who have announced that they're not going to be standing for re-election next time 'round?

If there is a parade of sitting NDP members who are retiring, that would be a sign of concern.

More than 20 of Harper's M.P.'s have announced that they won't be back on the ballot in 2015.  To me, that's a sure sign that they know which way the political winds are blowing.

 

ghoris

It's looking like the next election is not going to be until April 2016 (the date will be postponed to then as of January 1, 2015 to avoid conflict with a federal election in the same timeframe). That being the case, I suspect most people will wait until closer to the date to announce their intentions, particularly if they are in cabinet. Doer generally tended to remove anyone who wasn't running again from cabinet in order to promote some backbenchers in the run-up to the election.

I'm not sure if anyone has formally indicated they do not plan to re-offer but there are some likely candidates.

Although I guess she is an independent now, I'd be surprised if Christine Melnick ran again in Riel. Jim Rondeau (Assiniboia) and Nancy Allan (St. Vital) may be packing it in, particularly since they were dropped from cabinet (they may have told Selinger privately that they were not going to re-offer). Other likely retirements: Dave Chomiak (Kildonan), Gord Mackintosh (St. John's), and maybe Eric Robinson (Kewatinook). Steve Ashton (Thompson) is the longest-serving MLA (since 1981) but I don't get the sense he's going to hang it up yet.

Hopefully someone challenges Jim Maloway for the nomination in Elmwood if he does not retire. He's made it pretty obvious he has no interest in the job anymore and is just collecting a paycheque.

Frank Whitehead resigned his The Pas seat a while ago but as far as I know no by-election has been scheduled.

On the Tory side, I believe Stu Briese (Agassiz), Leanne Rowat (Riding Mountain) and Bonnie Mitchelson (River East) have already said they do not intend to run again. Rowat is a bit of a surprise - I always saw her as a bit of a rising star in the party and a cabinet shoo-in if they won.

As far as I know, Jon Gerrard has not indicated whether he is going to run in River Heights again or retire. I suspect if the Liberals see that seat as their best shot to elect Rana Bokhari, he will stand down for her.

genstrike

ghoris wrote:

As far as I know, Jon Gerrard has not indicated whether he is going to run in River Heights again or retire. I suspect if the Liberals see that seat as their best shot to elect Rana Bokhari, he will stand down for her.

If the Liberals were smart, they would immediately ditch Bokhari and give Robert Falcon Ouellette a phone call.  That could really shake up politics in Manitoba.

ghoris

Good call! I was talking to my parents the other day and they were quite impressed with RFO during the municipal campaign. Although they didn't ultimately end up voting for him, my dad said "that guy has a bright future and I hope we have not seen the last of him".

That said, I don't know if Ouellette has any provincial aspirations or whether he would even be interested in the Liberals.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Premier-Selinger-facing-potential... out what the Free Press is talking about.[/url] I'm not sure if this is just rumour-mongering by the Free Press or if there is something to it. Doer pretty much gutted the party grassroots and internal structures for expressing dissent (see what happened to Christine Melnick), and the only reason he's not the leader any more is because he wanted to step away. I'm not sure the NDP could orchestrate a coup against Sellinger even if it wanted to, and even if it did, I'm sure the movers and shakers within the party would not permit the NDP to go in a different direction anyways. I think the issues within the party go well beyond the name of someone at the top.

genstrike

ghoris wrote:

That said, I don't know if Ouellette has any provincial aspirations or whether he would even be interested in the Liberals.

His latest interviews seem to indicate that he is aware that he is a hot commodity at the moment.  Also, he had a lot of big movers and shakers in the Liberal Party behind his campaign, so there is a relationship there.

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Premier-Selinger-facing-potential... out what the Free Press is talking about.[/url] I'm not sure if this is just rumour-mongering by the Free Press or if there is something to it. Doer pretty much gutted the party grassroots and internal structures for expressing dissent (see what happened to Christine Melnick), and the only reason he's not the leader any more is because he wanted to step away. I'm not sure the NDP could orchestrate a coup against Sellinger even if it wanted to, and even if it did, I'm sure the movers and shakers within the party would not permit the NDP to go in a different direction anyways. I think the issues within the party go well beyond the name of someone at the top.

I thought the Melnick affair was because she was using department staff in that sit-in to protest Ottawa taking over settlement services, not because she was unhappy with the party or it leadership.

PrairieDemocrat15

genstrike wrote:

ghoris wrote:

As far as I know, Jon Gerrard has not indicated whether he is going to run in River Heights again or retire. I suspect if the Liberals see that seat as their best shot to elect Rana Bokhari, he will stand down for her.

If the Liberals were smart, they would immediately ditch Bokhari and give Robert Falcon Ouellette a phone call.  That could really shake up politics in Manitoba.

I agree it would, but wouldn't that look increadibly opportunistic on the part of the Liberals? Though I'm sure now they are wishing they would have waited a bit longer before pulling the knives out on Gerrard and bicking a new leader.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Premier-Selinger-facing-potential... out what the Free Press is talking about.[/url] I'm not sure if this is just rumour-mongering by the Free Press or if there is something to it. Doer pretty much gutted the party grassroots and internal structures for expressing dissent (see what happened to Christine Melnick), and the only reason he's not the leader any more is because he wanted to step away. I'm not sure the NDP could orchestrate a coup against Sellinger even if it wanted to, and even if it did, I'm sure the movers and shakers within the party would not permit the NDP to go in a different direction anyways. I think the issues within the party go well beyond the name of someone at the top.

I thought the Melnick affair was because she was using department staff in that sit-in to protest Ottawa taking over settlement services, not because she was unhappy with the party or it leadership.

Aside from the specific ins and outs, she crossed the party and she paid dearly for it, and I think that sent a message to the party about what happens to people who cross the leadership. I think many people are going to look at that affair and think it reflects poorly on both Melnick and the Premier.

Aristotleded24

I don't think a leadership change is really going to change the dynamic. The grassroots capabilities of the NDP have been completely gutted under Doer, and a new leader isn't necessarily going to make things better if the structural issues remain (see the leadership handover from Roy Romanow to Lorne Calvert in Saskatchewan, or the game of musical chairs the NDP leaders tend to play in BC). As someone who supported Ashton last time, I would agree that now is not his time to run, as if the NDP loses he is unlikely to want to finish off his political career on the opposition side. I disagree that Chief (or any of the young MLAs, for that matter) should be interim leader. As interim leader, this person would not be able to run for the leadership spot, and right now the NDP can't afford to eliminate any of the younger up-and-comers from serving in key positions.

Moving outside the Perimiter, I would have to say that while he has had a good run for it, I think one way or another the residents of Brandon East are going to tell Drew Caldwell that his coasting on the NDP brand is over. There was a poll recently that had the PCs well ahead of the NDP in this traditionally safe NDP seat. The PC candidate for the next election will be one Len Isliefson, a popular city councillor who has a record of public service in the riding, and will have more networks to draw on than Waddell did. Isliefson also lives in the riding, unlike Waddell.

PrairieDemocrat15

Selinger should resign. In fact he should have done it months ago. Switching a leader associated with an unpopular decision worked from the BC Libs and the OLP and seems to be working for the NL PCs and and Alberta PCs.

Also make Kevien Chief, one of the NDP's popular young MLAs, the interum leader.

Its too bad the party now needs someone young (and probably female) to contrast the party with Pallister's PCs and combat Bokhari's appeal. That rules out Ashton. A real social democrat who most likely would not have raised a non-progressive tax like the PST.

It is quite remarkable how fast things shifted after the PST debacle. The Tories had nothing - their biggest gripe was aginst the pesticide ban (like anyone cares about that now). I remeber the NDP putting the Gay-Straight Alliances poison pill in one of their bills, daring Pallister and his men (mostly men) to vote against it. They took the bait. Selinger looked unbeatable, after the surpise victory in 2011, he was toying with the Conservatives. Now, the party is in doing worse than it ever has since 1995.

The NDP has to lose power eventually, I just hope the Liberals don't catch fire and relegate the New Democrats to third a la, 1988. As bad as things are now, after reading up on and watching clips of the last days for the Pawley government, I don't think its as close to bad as then.

Aristotleded24

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
The NDP has to lose power eventually, I just hope the Liberals don't catch fire and relegate the New Democrats to third a la, 1988. As bad as things are now, after reading up on and watching clips of the last days for the Pawley government, I don't think its as close to bad as then.

I think 1988 was a blessing in disguise for the Manitoba NDP. Sometimes when your party is one of the major contenders for power, the party tends to become complacent and think it can just slide in on the government's failures in the next election without having to do any work. See what's happening in Saskatchewan and British Columbia as examples. When you experience that kind of a crushing defeat, it forces you to take a good, hard look in the mirror and adjust your strategy.

Stockholm

YOu don't think being reduced to 2 seats in 2001 was enough of a defeat to make the BC NDP t"ake a good hard look in a mirror and adjust its strategy"?

ghoris

Aristotleded24 wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:
The NDP has to lose power eventually, I just hope the Liberals don't catch fire and relegate the New Democrats to third a la, 1988. As bad as things are now, after reading up on and watching clips of the last days for the Pawley government, I don't think its as close to bad as then.

I think 1988 was a blessing in disguise for the Manitoba NDP. Sometimes when your party is one of the major contenders for power, the party tends to become complacent and think it can just slide in on the government's failures in the next election without having to do any work. See what's happening in Saskatchewan and British Columbia as examples. When you experience that kind of a crushing defeat, it forces you to take a good, hard look in the mirror and adjust your strategy.

I do agree that 1988 was a blessing in disguise in the sense that if the Pawley government had been able to stagger along until 1991, the NDP probably would have been completely wiped out and permanently replaced by the Liberal party. Pawley was a weak, ineffectual premier. The government lurched from crisis to crisis and there were few competent ministers in its ranks. There is no doubt in my mind that another three years and the party would have suffered a fatal election defeat along the lines of the B.C. Socreds in 1991.

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
YOu don't think being reduced to 2 seats in 2001 was enough of a defeat to make the BC NDP t"ake a good hard look in a mirror and adjust its strategy"?

Well, every election after that point was winnable for them, so no, they haven't taken a hard enough look at their strategy. Let's also remember that technically they were the second place party in 2001, so with no competition among those opposed to the BC Liberals, they could still have coasted on the idea that they would eventually gain ground as the Liberals fell out of favour.

ghoris wrote:
Pawley was a weak, ineffectual premier. The government lurched from crisis to crisis and there were few competent ministers in its ranks.

He has that reputation, and the buck obviously stops with him, but I think in many ways he was a victim of circumstance, particularly the circumstance of being a left-wing Premier in a time of major economic crisis. Saskatchewan and Alberta were also suffering during this time, but the conventional wisdom is that Alberta suffered because the NEP reduced oil prices. You don't ever hear any mention of the party that was in power in Saskatchewan during this time, I wonder why. And Pawley's 1988 budget would have left a surplus if it had passed.

I think Pawley is villified because of the systemic media bias in this country. For the problems Pawley had, remember that there was only one 1-term Premier in Manitoba's history, and it wasn't Howard Pawley. It was Sterling Lyon. I wonder why Lyon isn't villified to the same extent....

genstrike

...and the names start coming out

 

Quote:
A former provincial NDP cabinet minister says Premier Greg Selinger should consider stepping down as leader for the good of the party.

Becky Barrett, a member of the party’s provincial executive and a former longtime MLA, said today the NDP finds itself in a serious predicament.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Selinger-still-focused-on-leading...

Stockholm

If Pawley was so bad -how did he manage to not only win in the first place against Sterling Lyon in 1981 - but then get RE-ELECTED in 1985 against Gary Filmon. A lot of other NDP premiers who people seem to think highly of never managed to win re-election (e.g. Barrett, Dexter...) - Pawley did. 

genstrike

The article linked in my previous post was updated...

Quote:
Municipal Affairs Minister Stan Struthers and Finance Minister Jennifer Howard spoke to reporters late this afternoon at the Manitoba Legislative Building about internal divisions within the NDP over Selinger’s leadership.

Asked if either minister had asked the premier to step aside, Howard said:

"I think our advice to him is between us and him. I think the advice that I would give him is to think carefully about everything that you’re hearing. When you’re hearing senior party members express the concerns that have been expressed you have to pay attention to that. At the end of the day we all took an oath to serve the best interests of Manitobans. And that is what has got to guide our decisions."

In response to the same question, Struthers said: "That’s up to the premier. He needs to think about the discussions that we’ve had. Greg Selinger is an honourable guy. He’s an honest person. He works hard on behalf of the people of Manitoba. I think he deserves a chance to look at everything that’s in front of him and come to his conclusion."

Neither cabinet minister would say directly that the premier should step aside, but neither said he should stay. They refused to place a deadline on Selinger for a decision on his future.

scott16

For the people who know about Manitoba politics, do you think Selinger will actually resign?

Maybe he'll run federally, would that be good or bad?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I've already mentioned upthread or elsewhere that Sellinger is not very charismatic but nonetheless, replacing him now would give the party a whiff of desperation in my view. I don't see any beloved, potential star waiting in the wings to reinvigorate the party and make another NDP victory a sure thing.

It kind of reminds me of how pathetic the federal Liberals were with their backroom, "Yesterday's Man" campaign to put Paul Martin in the driver's seat. They also came across as looking incompetent when they couldn't handle Dion's victory and then tried to shoehorn Iggy into the PM-in-waiting job. Their desperation was transparent.

I hear lots of Winnipegers saying that the NDP (not Sellinger in particular) are on their way out. It's the party in power they're pissed with. Sellinger is no Katz that people are anxious to get rid of. The NDP has to find some policies and platforms that have positive resonance. I can't imagine many wanting to replace Sellinger with Pallister. To change leaders now would might make voters think that Pallister is a threat (or deserves to be considered a threat) when frankly, he is a dud.

Adam T

Stockholm wrote:

If Pawley was so bad -how did he manage to not only win in the first place against Sterling Lyon in 1981 - but then get RE-ELECTED in 1985 against Gary Filmon. A lot of other NDP premiers who people seem to think highly of never managed to win re-election (e.g. Barrett, Dexter...) - Pawley did. 

 

1986

The Manitoba general election of March 18, 1986 was held to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of ManitobaCanada. It was won by the New Democratic Party, which took 30 seats out of 57. The Progressive Conservative Party won 26 seats and formed the official opposition. The Manitoba Liberal Party, which had not been represented in the previous legislature, won one seat.

 

I'm not an expert on the Pawley government, but I thought he had some very strong cabinet ministers: Maureen Hemphill, Vic Schroeder, Al MacklingJudy Wasylycia-Leis, Eugene Kostyra, Leonard HarapiakWilson Parasiuk, Bill Uruski and Gary Doer.

PrairieDemocrat15

Anyone have a comment on the prospect of Nikki Ashton running for the leadership? She is young and charismatic and not a part of the current government. I think she could help neutralize any threat the Liberals's young female leader might pose to the NDP and would contrast beautifully with Pallister. She could take over her dad's seat or even run in the by-election in the Pas (which is part of her riding). Mulcair probably doesn't want to lose her, though, and she might be a little to left-wing to get support from leaners and undecideds. She would make an excellent Opposition Leader, though.

Hunky_Monkey

laine lowe wrote:

I've already mentioned upthread or elsewhere that Sellinger is not very charismatic but nonetheless, replacing him now would give the party a whiff of desperation in my view. I don't see any beloved, potential star waiting in the wings to reinvigorate the party and make another NDP victory a sure thing.

It kind of reminds me of how pathetic the federal Liberals were with their backroom, "Yesterday's Man" campaign to put Paul Martin in the driver's seat. They also came across as looking incompetent when they couldn't handle Dion's victory and then tried to shoehorn Iggy into the PM-in-waiting job. Their desperation was transparent.

I hear lots of Winnipegers saying that the NDP (not Sellinger in particular) are on their way out. It's the party in power they're pissed with. Sellinger is no Katz that people are anxious to get rid of. The NDP has to find some policies and platforms that have positive resonance. I can't imagine many wanting to replace Sellinger with Pallister. To change leaders now would might make voters think that Pallister is a threat (or deserves to be considered a threat) when frankly, he is a dud.

It's hard to change message/tone/direction without a different leader doing it.  

Hunky_Monkey

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Anyone have a comment on the prospect of Nikki Ashton running for the leadership? She is young and charismatic and not a part of the current government. I think she could help neutralize any threat the Liberals's young female leader might pose to the NDP and would contrast beautifully with Pallister. She could take over her dad's seat or even run in the by-election in the Pas (which is part of her riding). Mulcair probably doesn't want to lose her, though, and she might be a little to left-wing to get support from leaners and undecideds. She would make an excellent Opposition Leader, though.

At this stage, I'd rather not take chances on losing another MP.  Polls are favouring the Liberals at the moment.  We don't want another Trinity-Spadina right now.

Hunky_Monkey

More Manitoba cabinet ministers are openly questioning Premier Greg Selinger’s continued leadership of the governing NDP.

Selinger has been adamant about running in the next election, slated for April 2016, but unrest with his leadership has surfaced within the last few day.

Health Minister Erin Selby is the latest to suggest the premier needs to think about his future plans.

She says Selinger has had 18 months to convince Manitobans that a controversial increase to the provincial sales taxes was the right thing to do — and she says he has failed.

http://metronews.ca/news/winnipeg/1196428/manitoba-premier-facing-more-u...

When your cabinet ministers start down this path, time to go.

sherpa-finn

Greg Selinger to speak at 4:00 pm CT today as more cabinet ministers suggest he step aside.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-to-speak-as-more-cabinet-ministers-suggest-he-step-aside-1.2815438

Anyone taking bets?

PrairieDemocrat15

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

At this stage, I'd rather not take chances on losing another MP.  Polls are favouring the Liberals at the moment.  We don't want another Trinity-Spadina right now.

Trinity-Spadina only became an NDP "safe seat" after Chow won it. Vaughn's personal popularity was also an important factor. Churchill is a safe an NDP seat as there is. If the party is scared it will lose it, it has bigger problems.

Debater
Debater

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Trinity-Spadina only became an NDP "safe seat" after Chow won it. Vaughn's personal popularity was also an important factor. Churchill is a safe an NDP seat as there is. If the party is scared it will lose it, it has bigger problems.

I would agree with you that Churchill is probably pretty solid for the NDP.  But I'm not sure I'd agree it's the safest NDP seat in Canada.

It has voted Liberal in the past (eg. Elijah Harper, Tina Keeper, etc.)  So it can depend on the candidate & national trends.

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