NDP rebounding in Manitoba and wins by-election by crushing opponents

39 posts / 0 new
Last post
NorthReport
NDP rebounding in Manitoba and wins by-election by crushing opponents

+

NorthReport
bekayne

Isn't that the safest NDP seat in Manitoba? 

Unionist

Yeah maybe, but this is the first time the NDP has taken it not just by the usual secret ballot process, but by "crushing opponents", as per the thread title. Not sure that's legal, but hey, whatever works!

 

NorthReport

Orange Crushing them just like the Orange Chinook that's about to hit Calgary!   Laughing

Brachina

 Good for the Mantioba NDP. I don't like how Selinger handled the leadership race, but honestly I still don't understand why Mantiobans are so pissed at the NDP, I mean Manitoba has a low unemployment rate amoung other things, yes the raise the sales tax, which was the wrong tax to raise, but other then that what's the NDP doing wrong in Manitoba?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

20% voter turn out was not very reassuring in this victory. As much as I try to highlight how horrible a Palister and a PC victory would be with colleagues and friends who are convinced that the NDP are dead, they all seem pretty convinced that the NDP deserve to be booted. I honestly don't get it other than the media playing up this hype and the stupid implosion that occured a few months ago. This knee-jerk reaction to punishing ruling parties is what got Harper into power for the last decade.

genstrike

I don't know, winning a by-election on one of the safest seats in the province on a very low turnout isn't exactly a whole lot of evidence that the NDP is rebounding.  What goes on in the northern seats isn't always indicative of what people are feeling in Winnipeg and southern Manitoba where most of the seats are.  Also, it should be noted that Amanda Lathlin's 57% of the vote is down from the 75%ish that Frank Whitehead won in 2007 and 2011, and going down by 18% is hardly a rebound.

I think the sales tax was a bad idea rolled out very poorly.  But more than simply the annoyance of having to pay an extra 1%, I think is also the trust issue.  The NDP said they wouldn't raise the sales tax in 2011 and did it anyways.  They also keep pushing back their deficit reduction targets (not that deficit financing to avert a deep recession is a bad idea, though maybe it is time to start bringing it back down again).

The leadership campaign probably didn't help either, but I expect that to do more damage internally than externally, with the disarray caused by people fleeing to Alberta.

Debater

Manitoba NDP turmoil sees some key staff members head for Alberta

The Canadian Press

May 26, 2015

The rise of Alberta's New Democrats is prompting a growing number of Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger's key staff members to head west.

It's a study in contrasts — the ascendant Alberta NDP making history, compared to a Manitoba NDP government that has suffered from infighting and low polling numbers after 15 years in power.

Selinger started losing top advisers last December, after five senior cabinet ministers challenged his leadership in a contest he ended up winning by the narrowest of margins.

His chief of staff, his caucus director, his communications chief and more parted ways with the premier in the ensuing months.

Some ended up in Alberta, where the NDP won power for the first time earlier this month.

---

More:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-ndp-turmoil-sees-some-ke...

mark_alfred

Hmm.  When is the next Manitoba election?

Brachina

 2016 I think.

Brachina

 2016 I think.

bekayne

New Probe Research poll

http://www.probe-research.com/documents/150703%20Provincial%20Voting%20I...

March numbers in brackets 

PC    46  (44) +2

NDP  29  (29)

Lib   19  (20)  -1

Gre   5  ( 7)  -2

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.brandonsun.com/breaking-news/Hamilton--340127612.html?thx=y]L... Brandon councillor to run for the Liberals in a supposedly safe NDP seat:[/url]

Quote:
(Vanessa) Hamilton has switched party allegiances from NDP to Liberal. She is formerly the local NDP riding president.

"I believe in Rana and I trust the direction she’s taking the Manitoba Liberal Party," Hamilton said. "I’m excited to work with a leader that is focused on ideas that will make the lives of Manitobans better.  I  couldn’t pass up the opportunity to be a voice for Brandon East."

Unionist

Manitoba has a Liberal party? I had to look it up - and sure enough, they have one seat in the legislature!

Interesting.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

1988 was the last time the Liberals came in second as NDP voters ran from the hated Pawley government. That 35% showing and the resulting battle between the two parties led to 11 years of Filmon's Conservatives. The odds are in the next election the Liberal vote will go above last election's historic low of 7%.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I just looked up the federal numbers and the Liberals improved from 16% in 2011 to 44% this election. While the NDP went from 26% to 14%.

The hated Conservatives dropped to 37% from 54%. Methinks the Manitoba NDP is in for a rough ride in this election cycle.

Debater

Yes, it's interesting that the Trudeau Liberals won Manitoba this year.

I have no idea what it means for the Provincial scene, though.

It may not have much effect.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Just to show how last millenium the Manitoba NDP really is here is it's take on legalizing pot. It echoes the the message of the federal party that needed to study the drug because they had heard from the RCMP about how dangerous it was.

The party is going down hard in the next election. But don't worry all is not lost yet, I hear that the federal party has some great campaigners available who pushed the same message about going slow on the dangerous herb.  They are available since none of them made it into their dream PMO jobs.

Premier Greg Selinger wrote:

"These are all highly addictive drugs and we want to make sure Manitobans get the best opportunity to be protected from them," Selinger said Thursday at the Legislative Building.

"At the retail level, we would like to do it the way we’re doing liquor in Manitoba right now, to make sure it’s safe."

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Pot-is-highly-addictive-Selinger-...

mark_alfred

Debater wrote:

Yes, it's interesting that the Trudeau Liberals won Manitoba this year.

I have no idea what it means for the Provincial scene, though.

It may not have much effect.

Even when the federal NDP were at their height in popularity, they weren't polling too well in Manitoba.  So, doesn't bode well for the MNDP.

Aristotleded24

kropotkin1951 wrote:
The party is going down hard in the next election.

Not necessarily. Conventional wisdom says that should be the case, but the PC leader is too close to Harper and has a tendancy to say stupid things like [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vfs_Rg3YeXY]infidel atheist[/url] and [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_9DuGG0qbk]criticizing Hallowe'en[/url] and his [url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/tory-leaders-denial-of-flip-flop-... counter-throne speech was heavy on adding doctors and nurses (inviting the NDP to throw the PC cuts of the 1990s back at them) while cutting spending and enhancing our front-line services while rolling the PST back to 7%[/url] is not going to give him the traction he needs.

Having said that, you're right in a sense that the political scene here is very discouraging. I firmly believe that the next election will be the nastiest election ever fought in Manitoba between the parties, and anybody who won't jump off a cliff when their party says won't notice or care about the election. Which in a sense is a shame because if the NDP wins in Manitoba, that will only continue to send the wrong message to the federal party about how to treat the opinions and feedback of members.

bekayne

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Just to show how last millenium the Manitoba NDP really is here is it's take on legalizing pot. It echoes the the message of the federal party that needed to study the drug because they had heard from the RCMP about how dangerous it was.

The party is going down hard in the next election. But don't worry all is not lost yet, I hear that the federal party has some great campaigners available who pushed the same message about going slow on the dangerous herb.  They are available since none of them made it into their dream PMO jobs.

Premier Greg Selinger wrote:

"These are all highly addictive drugs and we want to make sure Manitobans get the best opportunity to be protected from them," Selinger said Thursday at the Legislative Building.

"At the retail level, we would like to do it the way we’re doing liquor in Manitoba right now, to make sure it’s safe."

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Pot-is-highly-addictive-Selinger-...

They need to hear from the LeDain Commision first

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

bekayne wrote:

They need to hear from the LeDain Commision first

I am sure I heard the party during the campaign promise to update the LeDain Commission because it was so old and the herb was way more potent and dangerous. This from a party led by a Montreal'er from a generation whose cannabis users loved black hash. No wonder the youth vote went to the Liberals.  Tom came across to GenX'ers who came out to vote for the first time as their strict, uncool uncle whose youth was spent with a stick up his ass.

Selinger seems to be trying to double down on the same persona. For many people Rana Bokhari, the Liberal leader, might just be the antidote to the two right of centre white male boomers. She is a young and dynamic 38 year old with a thin resume but good people skills.

 

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/child-family-poverty-manitoba-1.3...'s see how the NDP has defended the interests of the working classes it claims to speak for:[/url]

Quote:
Manitoba has the highest child poverty rate of any province, according to a report released on Tuesday.

The province's rate is listed at 29 per cent, a full 10 percentage points above the national rate, according to Campaign 2000, a coalition of more than 120 organizations lobbying governments to take action against poverty.

On Tuesday, it released its annual national report card on child and family poverty, Let's Do This: Let's End Child Poverty for Good. Campaign 2000's provincial partners released their reports at the same time, including the Manitoba Child and Family Report Card 2015.

The number of Manitoba children and families in poverty, which was pushing a crisis level in 1992, has now become a "chronic nightmare," the Manitoba report states.

Disgusting. I can think of fewer things that have harmed the NDP's reputation as an advocate for the working class than the Manitoba and Saskatchewan sections allowing so many of their citizens to languish in poverty for so long.

Debater

kropotkin1951 wrote:

bekayne wrote:

They need to hear from the LeDain Commision first

I am sure I heard the party during the campaign promise to update the LeDain Commission because it was so old and the herb was way more potent and dangerous. This from a party led by a Montreal'er from a generation whose cannabis users loved black hash. No wonder the youth vote went to the Liberals.  Tom came across to GenX'ers who came out to vote for the first time as their strict, uncool uncle whose youth was spent with a stick up his ass.

Selinger seems to be trying to double down on the same persona. For many people Rana Bokhari, the Liberal leader, might just be the antidote to the two right of centre white male boomers. She is a young and dynamic 38 year old with a thin resume but good people skills.

The moribund Manitoba Liberals could certainly benefit from an injection of new life & generational change.

I don't know whether it will happen, but it's certainly time for them to do something different to resonate with the people in Manitoba if they ever want to make an impact.

We'll see if Rana Bokhari can tap into some of the success of her Federal counterpart Justin Trudeau, and build on the success of the Liberals in sweeping Winnipeg in October.

It won't be easy to break the NDP-Conservative hold on MB, but it's worth a shot.

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

bekayne wrote:

They need to hear from the LeDain Commision first

I am sure I heard the party during the campaign promise to update the LeDain Commission because it was so old and the herb was way more potent and dangerous. This from a party led by a Montreal'er from a generation whose cannabis users loved black hash. No wonder the youth vote went to the Liberals.  Tom came across to GenX'ers who came out to vote for the first time as their strict, uncool uncle whose youth was spent with a stick up his ass.

Selinger seems to be trying to double down on the same persona. For many people Rana Bokhari, the Liberal leader, might just be the antidote to the two right of centre white male boomers. She is a young and dynamic 38 year old with a thin resume but good people skills.

The moribund Manitoba Liberals could certainly benefit from an injection of new life & generational change.

I don't know whether it will happen, but it's certainly time for them to do something different to resonate with the people in Manitoba if they ever want to make an impact.

We'll see if Rana Bokhari can tap into some of the success of her Federal counterpart Justin Trudeau, and build on the success of the Liberals in sweeping Winnipeg in October.

It won't be easy to break the NDP-Conservative hold on MB, but it's worth a shot.

The Liberals have had their own infighting here as well. Remember that the NDP also has the advantage of control of the public purse, so they can still shore up some support with initiatives like more child care spaces and the increased rent subsidies which just went into effect. And since Trudeau has promised marijuana legalization and that this is a federal responsibility, I can't imagine it playing a huge role in the next election.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/legislature-member-who-openly-cri... MLA loses nomination:[/url]

Quote:
Clarence Pettersen, who has represented Flin Flon in the legislature since 2011, lost a NDP nomination meeting Friday night to Tom Lindsey, a long-time union activist who will carry the party banner in next April's election.

Pettersen says he was surprised, and says it seems members of local unions were against him.

He says part of the backlash was caused by his open criticism last year of Premier Greg Selinger, who was facing a caucus revolt over low polling numbers.

This feels like a purge is going on. Let's recap: Struthers, Swan, Selby, Howard, and Oswald held the press conference to try and force out Selinger, and Pettersen openly criticized him. Since then: Struthers and Oswald have announced that they will not run in the next election. Selby was convinced to run federally and then hired by the UFCW, and Petterson has lost the nomination. Plus, Liberal leader Rana Bokhari will run against Howard, and I fully expect the party to divert resources away from that riding (the officila line will be that the party has to defend marginal seats and will thus be concentrating its resources where needed).

So this really is Greg Selinger's NDP, and Selinger is one of the most unpopular premiers in Canada. I fear because the voters will have the chance to do what the NDP could not. No questioning of the party, just realize that it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and vote accordingly. What's really unfortunate is that this arrogance is going a long way to undermine the more positive aspects of this government's legacy.

Stockholm

I read that it wasn't quite so simple in Flin Flon - Selinger's people were not involved at all - on the contrary the union locals there are controlled by loyalists to Steve Ashton and they wanted to punish the MLA because he supprted Oswald and not Ashton.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Stockholm wrote:

I read that it wasn't quite so simple in Flin Flon - Selinger's people were not involved at all - on the contrary the union locals there are controlled by loyalists to Steve Ashton and they wanted to punish the MLA because he supprted Oswald and not Ashton.

That is one thing about the NDP out West, some of the unions still know how to stack a nomination meeting. So are you saying that Tom Davies led the coup?

I love your use of language. "Controlled by" and "punish", implies that union locals are not democratic bodies and that the people who control them should be able to punish sitting MLA's.  I get the way you see power dynamics in organizations. It is simliar to the reality that I have seen in some unions but not in the best. You seem okay with this type of backroom manipulation of the New DEMOCRATIC Party while I find it quite disgusting. Ken Georgetti was another Steelworker that knew how to work the backrooms and with Moe Sihota working GOTV in the South Asian community they dominated the BC NDP nomination process for a decade. Of course the NDP didn't win despite the fact that the control freaks influenced many close nomination battles.

Just so people understand it is not trade unionist that are the problem just certain union people. So it isn't the Steelworkers it is people like Georgetti. Other Steelworkers like Art Kube or Leo Gerard are not the problem. So Stockholm is it Davies or some other individuals that you believe stacked the meeting? Or do you want to smear all the union leadership in Flin Flon with the label of control freaks.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Remember that the NDP also has the advantage of control of the public purse, so they can still shore up some support with initiatives like more child care spaces and the increased rent subsidies which just went into effect.

..the government has recently sent out letters saying that the calculating of income will be done differently and that rent subsidies might go down. well i tested it on the estimater and the subsidy went down $20 per month.

Stockholm

I don't know ANYONE in northern Manitoba - I'm just saying that in the press reports on the Flin Flon nomination battle - it was noted that this turned into a proxy war between people who had backed Ashton for the leadership against those who had backed Oswald and that Selinger had no horse in this contest...some say that two-time loser Ashton is going to try to win the leadership yet again after the election and is already trying to line things up for himself...though I hear that Kevin Chief is widely expected to seek the leadership post-Selinger and would be incalculably more appealing than a washed up hack like Ashton.

Aristotleded24

epaulo13 wrote:

Remember that the NDP also has the advantage of control of the public purse, so they can still shore up some support with initiatives like more child care spaces and the increased rent subsidies which just went into effect.

..the government has recently sent out letters saying that the calculating of income will be done differently and that rent subsidies might go down. well i tested it on the estimater and the subsidy went down $20 per month.

I'm talking about the [url=http://www.gov.mb.ca/jec/eia/rentassist/]Rent Assist program[/url] which was started up recently (I think within the last year) and the plan was to gradually roll it out and it be in full force this month. Do you know something different? If so, I'd be interested in seeing it.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

Remember that the NDP also has the advantage of control of the public purse, so they can still shore up some support with initiatives like more child care spaces and the increased rent subsidies which just went into effect.

..the government has recently sent out letters saying that the calculating of income will be done differently and that rent subsidies might go down. well i tested it on the estimater and the subsidy went down $20 per month.

I'm talking about the [url=http://www.gov.mb.ca/jec/eia/rentassist/]Rent Assist program[/url] which was started up recently (I think within the last year) and the plan was to gradually roll it out and it be in full force this month. Do you know something different? If so, I'd be interested in seeing it.

..that's exactly what i'm talking about but non eia. i've been on it since june and nov 23rd i recieved a letter about the changes.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..i find the manitoba ndp politics quite disturbing if the piece below is true. not only have they signed on to fast tracking pipelines there's a connection to fracking.

pamela palmater blog

The information about this partnership is as much of a surprise as was the announcement by Atleo that took place only two hours after Perry Bellegarde was elected. Shawn Atleo announced that he had been appointed as the new Senior Advisor to Pacific Future Energy Corporation, one of the companies wanting to build an oil refinery in B.C. His former AFN staffer, Jeffrey Copenace, is Senior Vice-President. It was further announced that former National Chief Ovide Mercredi would also be joining the team.

The Chair of Pacific Future Energy is none other than former Conservative Cabinet Minister Stockwell Day, who served as Minister of Public Safety and then Minister of International Trade in the Harper government. The former partnership between AFN and Conservatives manifested as a business deal after Atleo’s resignation from the AFN. Instead of advocating for Aboriginal and treaty rights, Atleo will now promote the oil industry.

Mercredi was one of the former National Chiefs who most vocally defended Atleo during Idle No More protests and the widespread criticisms from Chiefs, despite his former role as the Treaty 1-11 spokesperson. He is now not only affiliated with Atleo in Pacific Future Energy, but also GITPO in New Brunswick.

Mercredi is not just a former AFN National Chief, he is now also the President of the Manitoba NDP — ironically one of the most conservative governments in Canada. Manitoba has the highest rates of murdered and missing Indigenous women and little girls, the highest rates of Indigenous children in care, some of the highest rates on incarceration, and possibly the worst government record on mining and other industry abuses on First Nation lands.

 

bekayne

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Poll-puts-NDP-in-third-place-trai...

For the first time in 20 years, a poll of voter preferences suggests the New Democratic Party is in third place in Manitoba.

A Probe Research poll conducted early this month on behalf of the Winnipeg Free Press pegs provincewide support for the NDP at 22 per cent, placing the long-governing party behind both the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals for the first time since the spring of 1995, when Gary Filmon was Manitoba’s premier, Paul Edwards served as Liberal leader and Gary Doer led the official Opposition.

The telephone survey of 1,000 randomly selected Manitoba adults, conducted from Dec. 3 to Dec. 15, found Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives holding on to the commanding lead they’ve held since March, with 43 per cent support of decided voters.

The Liberals, led by Rana Bokhari, are in second place, with 29 per cent of the vote — and a statistically significant edge over Premier Greg Selinger’s NDP, whose support has plummeted from 46 per cent in the 2011 election. The Greens and other Manitoba parties combine for six per cent support. The margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

 

Unionist

Quote:
NDP rebounding in Manitoba and wins by-election by crushing opponents

Well, if you can't beat them at the polls, I guess you could always try that.

Debater

It will be interesting to see whether the Manitoba Liberals can keep these 2nd place numbers, or whether they will revert to 3rd by the time of the Provincial election.

Is this a Trudeau honeymoon effect?  The Federal Liberals finished 1st in Manitoba this year.  Maybe that gave their provincial counterparts a boost.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Why is Selinger still so determined not to let go of the MNDP until there is no longer an MNDP to let go of?  You'd think he would at least want to make sure someone else took the fall for him at the next election, now that a humiliating defeat is unavoidable.

Does he truly just want to be certain there will never be another NDP government in Manitoba? 

It's beginning to look pathological with him.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

dupe post. self delete.