St. Boniface byelection

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robbie_dee
St. Boniface byelection

Winnipeg Free Press: St. Boniface byelection set for July 17

 

Quote:

A byelection will be held July 17 in the provincial constituency of St. Boniface to fill the vacancy left by former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger's resignation earlier this year.

Premier Brian Pallister called the byelection Tuesday, ending months of speculation as to its timing.

The byelection presents an opportunity for the Liberals to achieve party status in the Manitoba legislature — four seats — and the extra funding and perks it brings.

Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont, who does not hold a seat, will represent his party in the contest.

Blandine Tona, a community activist, is trying to retain the constituency for the NDP; Mamadou Ka, who sought the seat for the Progressive Conservatives in the 2016, will represent the Tories once again; Françoise Therrien Vrignon will be the Green party candidate.

robbie_dee
robbie_dee

Most notable about this byelection, perhaps, is that if Liberal leader Dougald Lamont wins the Manitoba Liberal Party will become the only provincial Liberal party with official status in its provincial legislature between the Rocky Mountains and the Ontario/Quebec border.

robbie_dee
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And it will be amusing to hear people who voted for Lamont try to argue that the fact that he was the only white man in the race had NOTHING to do with their support for him.  Yeah, that was JUST a coincidence.  Right.

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

And it will be amusing to hear people who voted for Lamont try to argue that the fact that he was the only white man in the race had NOTHING to do with their support for him.  Yeah, that was JUST a coincidence.  Right.

Mamadou Ka's vote went from 2,211 to 834. The voters suddenly noticed she wasn't white?

robbie_dee

Ken Burch wrote:

And it will be amusing to hear people who voted for Lamont try to argue that the fact that he was the only white man in the race had NOTHING to do with their support for him. Yeah, that was JUST a coincidence. Right.

From the previously linked CBC article I would just make a note of this, too:

Quote:

Elections Manitoba reported that 6,270 of St. Boniface's 12,960 registered voters cast ballots for a turnout of just over 48 per cent.

By contrast, the riding had a voter turnout of close to 64 per cent in the general election in 2016.

The election was the first time all voters have been required to show identification to prove who they are: either one piece of government-issued photo identification, or two pieces of ID without photos.

Until now, people whose names appeared on the voters list did not need to prove their identity by producing identification, except in advance voting.

Experience from the U.S. is that voter ID laws disproportionately impact lower income and minority voters. Not sure if there is sufficient evidence in Canada to say, but many of the same factors as apply in the U.S. would be at play here. Certainly that's not the only reason for lower turnout in a by-election, or for the white guy's win in said by-election on a lower turnout, but it could have played a role.

bekayne

By Canadian standards, a provincial by-election turnout that's around 75% of the General Election turnout isn't that bad. It's usually less that 50%

robbie_dee

Yeah I thought that, too. Good on the people of St. Boniface for getting out to vote in the middle of the summer for a byelection with, at best, limited ramifications beyond those very specifically affecting the parties involved.

The fact that turnout only dropped relatively modestly from the general election doesn't necessarily indicate that the demographic composition of the people who turned out is the same, though. I was intrigued that this particular race only featured one white guy running against a black woman, a black man and a white woman.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It's especially icky that a lot of Selinger voters didn't vote for Blandine Tona.  How can that NOT have a deeply unpleasant subtext?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

bekayne wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

And it will be amusing to hear people who voted for Lamont try to argue that the fact that he was the only white man in the race had NOTHING to do with their support for him.  Yeah, that was JUST a coincidence.  Right.

Mamadou Ka's vote went from 2,211 to 834. The voters suddenly noticed she wasn't white?

It's possible, given that you didn't notice "she's" a guy.

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

And it will be amusing to hear people who voted for Lamont try to argue that the fact that he was the only white man in the race had NOTHING to do with their support for him.  Yeah, that was JUST a coincidence.  Right.

Mamadou Ka's vote went from 2,211 to 834. The voters suddenly noticed she wasn't white?

It's possible, given that you didn't notice "she's" a guy.

Oops

ghoris

Not that surprising a result.

1) The Liberals threw everything they had at this by-election. For once, the federal party actually brought its machine to bear on behalf of the provincial party, and it showed.

2) I'm sure there was a bad taste left in a lot of Selinger supporters' mouths over the way Kinew forced him out. And of course, there's still a lot of division and bad blood in the party all around after the cabinet revolt and aftermath. In short, I'll wager a significant number of NDP voters just stayed home.

3) I'm sure the Tory vote cratering helped the Liberals. The collapse of the Tory vote was about the only positive thing Kinew could point to afterward, and even still it kind of looks like you're grapsing at straws when you've just lost a formerly safe seat that your party has held for 36 of the last 47 years.