Ontario Election June 7, 2018

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Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
I think the Raptors should change their name to the Elites.

Crowd chant:  "LA-tay!  LA-tay!!  LA-tay!!!..."

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

A former New Democratic Party voter now seeking to run against the party's leader for the Liberals, Deidre Pike believes she's "on the right path."

On Saturday morning, Pike announced her desire to run against Andrea Horwath in Hamilton Centre in the upcoming provincial election in her last Hamilton Spectator column — for now.

"The leader of the NDP and I have stood in solidarity" on many issues, Pike told CBC News.

However, she added that Horwath's "silence around the poverty issue in the province [had] just disheartened [her]."

Pike is known as a longstanding advocate of Hamilton's LGBTQ+ community and is currently the senior social planner for the city's Social Planning and Research Council.

She also monitors Ontario's basic income pilot running in Hamilton.

Pike pointed to her meeting with Premier Kathleen Wynne in December as the trigger for her desire to seek the nomination for the Liberals.

"I saw a woman with such sincerity and compassion and attentive listening skills. These are not the things I've always witnessed in politicians," Pike said.

"I felt called to work from the inside."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/deirdre-pike-liberal-nomination-h...

jerrym

Here's a poll on party popularity and PC leadership candidates. 

Despite the crisis around the Progressive Conservatives over the departures of Mr. Brown and party president Rick Dykstra, the Tories continue to enjoy more support than the governing Liberals, according to a new survey conducted by the Leger research firm.

In a survey of 996 people, the internet poll has the Tories sitting at 36 per cent support among decided voters and the Liberals at 33 per cent. The New Democrats trail in third place with 26-per-cent support. (A poll of this size is considered to have a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.)

Among the leadership hopefuls, the poll shows Ms. Elliott with the strongest support at 40 per cent. Ms. Mulroney is second with 36 per cent and Mr. Phillips and Mr. Ford are tied at 32 per cent.

Christian Bourque, executive vice-president of Leger, said at this early stage of the race, Ms. Elliott is likely leading because of her name recognition.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/christine-elliott-caroline...

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

What that poll says is that all three major parties have a real shot at winning, and it proves there's no case for anyone to be pressuring current NDP supporters to "vote strategically".  It is now clear that, for working-class people in Ontario, there is no meaningful difference between a PC government and a "Liberal" government.  

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

What that poll says is that all three major parties have a real shot at winning, and it proves there's no case for anyone to be pressuring current NDP supporters to "vote strategically".  It is now clear that, for working-class people in Ontario, there is no meaningful difference between a PC government and a "Liberal" government.  

Well, not exactly. Were the Liberals to win, the Ontario minimum wage would go up to $15/hr from $14/hr in January 2019. If the PCs win, this raise will not go through at that time. The PCs are talking about gradual 25 cent an hour raises instead. For the working class person on minimum wage, that is a difference of potentially thousands of dollars over time.

It is the kind of pocketbook issue which will motivate the affected voters to volunteer and vote against the politicians who are trying to rip them off. As when Harper tried to raise the pension eligibility from 65 to 67.  

The NDP have spoken about these wage increases with disdain, and one wonders if they are really on board with this. 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

What that poll says is that all three major parties have a real shot at winning, and it proves there's no case for anyone to be pressuring current NDP supporters to "vote strategically". 

Mainstreet Poll where Doug Ford comes in FIRST in every demo and region except for the 416 and voters 18 -34. He is even polling higher with women than either Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath. NDP doesn't lead in any demo or region

"Would you vote for the PC Party if Doug Ford were leader?"

PC Party (with Doug Ford) - 36.1%

Liberals (With Kathleen Wynne) - 26%

NDP (with Andrea Horwath) - 17%

Male

Doug Ford – 39.8%

Kathleen Wynne - 23.8%

Andrea Horwath - 15%

Female

Doug Ford – 32.5%

Kathleen Wynne - 28.1%

Andrea Horwath – 18.9%

18 – 34

Kathleen Wynne – 34.2%

Doug Ford – 33.3%

Andrea Horwath – 14.7%

35 – 49

Doug Ford – 38.1%

Kathleen Wynne – 21.9%

Andrea Horwath – 20%

50 – 64

Doug Ford – 38.9%

Kathleen Wynne – 22.8%

Andrea Horwath – 17.2%

65+

Doug Ford – 33.4%

Kathleen Wynne – 23.9%

Andrea Horwath – 16.2%

416

Kathleen Wynne – 35.9%

Doug Ford – 32.6%

Andrea Horwath – 17.9%

905

Doug Ford – 39.4%

Kathleen Wynne – 27.1%

Andrea Horwath – 12.5%

Eastern Ontario

Doug Ford – 35%

Kathleen Wynne – 21.1%

Andrea Horwath – 19.2%

South Central Ontario

Doug Ford – 37%

Kathleen Wynne – 25.1%

Andrea Horwath – 14.8%

South Western Ontario

Doug Ford – 37%

Andrea Horwath – 20.4%

Kathleen Wynne – 19.3%

Northern Ontario

Doug Ford – 31.6%

Andrea Horwath – 21.3%

Kathleen Wynne – 17.3%

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post-patrick-brown-poll-certainty-onta...

SeekingAPolitic...

That is interesting polling, indeed.  I find it hard to believe the strength of Ford almost every category and region.  What I find strange is the power of the Ford brand.  Yes around Toronto I believe that he is that strong.  I would think as you move away from Toronto then naturally people would hear less about ford.  But his strength is everywhere, quite frankly that many people ever of him is surprising.  We need more polling but I would say that the poll should be not dismissed but treated with care.  

Badriya

I have my doubts about this poll, especially after Mainstreet predicted that Nenshi would lose the last election in Calgary.  

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/mainstreet-polling-failure-calgary...

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Badriya wrote:

I have my dobts about this poll, especially after Mainstreet predicted that Nenshi would lose the last election in Calgary. 

New research suggests room for Rob Ford’s populist appeal to be duplicated. Study done by Ekos research

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/02/04/new-research-suggests-room-...

JKR

Rob Ford's numbers may look good when compared with the the Liberals and the NDP but that doesn't mean that Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney are both not ahead of Ford in popularity.

My uninformed hunch from out here in BC is that Mulroney will likely win both the PC Leadership and provincial election.

Pondering

When answering polls people know they aren't actually voting. If I am annoyed with who I am going to vote for in the end, I'll give a different answer to show my displeasure. I don't want them to feel comfortable. If I were in Ontario I would vote NDP in a riding if they could take it, Liberal otherwise. I would be sorely tempted to say Ford anyway even though I would never vote for him. 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

JKR wrote:
My uninformed hunch from out here in BC is that Mulroney will likely win both the PC Leadership and provincial election.

I don't think Ontarians will give the keys to the castle to someone who has never held public office.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
My uninformed hunch from out here in BC is that Mulroney will likely win both the PC Leadership and provincial election.

On the one hand, the electorate likes to believe the old saw that "any boy can grow up to be President".  Gives them a Hail Mary hope for their boy, I guess.

On the other hand, the electorate USED TO prefer leaders to have some experience with electoral politics, rather than just a recognizable brand.

That said, I'm totally looking forward to the PC leadership race to be a hot mess.  The widow vs. the daughter vs. the also-ran brother. 

Who remembers the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election featuring Arnie, Larry Flynt, Gary Coleman, porn star Mary Carey, Angelyne, and literally 131 others?

***** Gong! *****

josh

Great, another legacy.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

For each of the front-runners, a familiar brand, at least.

I don't think that states with (reasonably) free and (reasonably) fair elections enjoy dynasties in quite the same way as states without them. 

No true dynastic leader would let someone else lead in between them and their child.  That's just not how it works.  See "DPRK" for an example of an actual dynasty.

That said, I do, myself, shake my head at our apparent interest in the children of former leaders.  But if it's all on the up-and-up, what am I supposed to say?  You can't vote for this person because of their dad?

People living under a monarchy, or an emperor, or a dictator don't get a choice, but we have/had a choice.

JKR

Mighty Middle wrote:

JKR wrote:
My uninformed hunch from out here in BC is that Mulroney will likely win both the PC Leadership and provincial election.

I don't think Ontarians will give the keys to the castle to someone who has never held public office.

I'd agree with you if Mulroney didn't have a famous name. Lately it seems that people with highly recognized names like "Trudeau," "Clinton," and, "Trump," have an advantage.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Lately it seems that people with highly recognized names like "Trudeau," "Clinton," and, "Trump," have an advantage.

Are you indirectly referring to President Clinton?  Or else what was her advantage?  Making it to the semi-finals??

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

JKR wrote:
Mighty Middle wrote:

JKR wrote:
My uninformed hunch from out here in BC is that Mulroney will likely win both the PC Leadership and provincial election.

I don't think Ontarians will give the keys to the castle to someone who has never held public office.

I'd agree with you if Mulroney didn't have a famous name. Lately it seems that people with highly recognized names like "Trudeau," "Clinton," and, "Trump," have an advantage.

But at least Trudeau and Clinton had previous political experience. Mulroney has zero.

JKR

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Lately it seems that people with highly recognized names like "Trudeau," "Clinton," and, "Trump," have an advantage.

Are you indirectly referring to President Clinton?  Or else what was her advantage?  Making it to the semi-finals??

I think her advantage was being the wife of a former president. I don't think she would have been as successful otherwise.

JKR

Mighty Middle wrote:

JKR wrote:
Mighty Middle wrote:

JKR wrote:
My uninformed hunch from out here in BC is that Mulroney will likely win both the PC Leadership and provincial election.

I don't think Ontarians will give the keys to the castle to someone who has never held public office.

I'd agree with you if Mulroney didn't have a famous name. Lately it seems that people with highly recognized names like "Trudeau," "Clinton," and, "Trump," have an advantage.

But at least Trudeau and Clinton had previous political experience. Mulroney has zero.

Mulroney's lack of experience as a retail candidate will be on display during the PC leadership contest. I think if she is clearly less poised and polished than the other candidates she will likely not win and Elliott likely will. But my guess is that Mulroney will win if she is just likeable and charismatic. I think a lot of PC voters will want their version of Justin Trudeau.

Pondering

JKR wrote:
   I'd agree with you if Mulroney didn't have a famous name. Lately it seems that people with highly recognized names like "Trudeau," "Clinton," and, "Trump," have an advantage.

But there is a decent chance that Sanders would have won against Trump, and Sanders certainly didn't have a famous name. Trudeau's name helped him big time but he was in third place for a time. His name helped him get attention but he had to then do something with that attention. Clinton's connections got her the Democratic nomination. Trump's name may have helped him particularly in winning the nomination but he won the election based on his faux populism not his name. 

Caroline Mulroney's name will certainly buy her lots of attention but her success will depend on what she does with it. 

josh

The smart money says that if Doug Ford becomes Progressive Conservative leader next month, the party’s chances of ousting Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals from government will diminish considerably.

Who knows? The smart money may be right.

But that doesn’t mean the Tories won’t choose Ford anyway.

His outsider campaign has resonance within a party that has long been split — between left and right, between urbanites and rural voters, between true believers and compromisers.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/02/07/why-doug-ford-has-a-good-shot-at-becoming-ontario-pc-leader.html

JKR

Given the current political and social climate I find it hard to believe that PC'ers won't choose either Elliott or Mulroney. Could PC'ers select someone who seems like Donald Trump, Harvey Weinstein, and Rob Ford rolled into one? 

cco

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Are you indirectly referring to President Clinton?  Or else what was her advantage?  Making it to the semi-finals??

Well, it may be 18 years ago now, but becoming a senator for a state she'd never lived in was a pretty good example of the power of a famous name.

NorthReport
jerrym

This morning CBC News Network covered the NDP national convention for 1 minute 50 seconds, of which only 23 seconds involved commentary by an NDPer at the convention. The rest of the time (1 minute 27 seconds) was reporter commentary about the problems the NDP face. 

Immediatley following this, there was 19 minutes and 53 seconds of coverage of alleged sexual abuser Patrick Brown at a leadership rally with devoted followers continually applauding him, that was meant to propel him back into the Ontario PC race. The entire time involved Brown proclaiming why he should be the PC leader again, with no commentary provided by CBC. I was surprised by the many PC MLAs and elecction candidates who showed up at the rally to continue to support him, including a fair number of women.

Can one say tilt?

 

eastnoireast

jerrym wrote:

This morning CBC News Network covered the NDP national convention for 1 minute 50 seconds, of which only 23 seconds involved commentary by an NDPer at the convention. The rest of the time (1 minute 27 seconds) was reporter commentary about the problems the NDP face. 

Immediatley following this, there was 19 minutes and 53 seconds of coverage of alleged sexual abuser Patrick Brown at a leadership rally with devoted followers continually applauding him, that was meant to propel him back into the Ontario PC race. The entire time involved Brown proclaiming why he should be the PC leader again, with no commentary provided by CBC. I was surprised by the many PC MLAs and elecction candidates who showed up at the rally to continue to support him, including a fair number of women.

Can one say tilt?

 

yeah, on the national cbc radio news, most of the quote from singh's podium speech was him repeating negatives - "...one can only get ahead by yourself, and social programs don't work, bla bla, but we refute that ". roughly qouted. on an earlier edition they reported that "over 90% had voted not to conduct a leadership review", instead of "over 90% voted in support of mr singh"

Debater

Former Ontario Tory leader Patrick Brown discussed $375,000 deal with future PC candidate

February 19, 2018

Former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown was in talks to sell an interest in a restaurant he partially owns and some Aeroplan miles for $375,000 to a man who went on to become a Tory candidate, documents show.

An affidavit detailing a deal was sworn five months before Jass Johal was acclaimed as the candidate for the PC Party in a new riding in the suburban 905 region around Toronto. According to a copy of the affidavit shown to The Globe and Mail, Mr. Johal, a paralegal who lives in Brampton, says he agrees to purchase two million Aeroplan miles and an ownership interest in Hooligans restaurant from Mr. Brown for $375,000. "The amount is paid by certified draft from Bank of Nova Scotia," says the affidavit dated June 11, 2016 and signed by Mr. Johal.

When asked about the deal described in the affidavit, Mr. Brown responded in an e-mail to The Globe on Sunday: "I have no business dealings with Mr. Johal. No deal was ever done."

Other documents The Globe has seen, including bank statements, show that Mr. Brown deposited $375,000 into his personal account at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce one month after the affidavit was signed, on July 11, 2016. Later that month, property records show he purchased a waterfront house on Lake Simcoe's Shanty Bay for $2.3-million. He took out a mortgage of $1.72-million from Toronto-Dominion Bank, according to public mortgage documents.

When asked about that, Mr. Brown, who earned $180,886 a year as leader of the Official Opposition, responded in the e-mail: "Like many people in Ontario, I received help from my family purchasing my home."

The Globe initially sent a series of questions to Mr. Brown on Saturday evening. After his initial response on Sunday, The Globe sent followup questions later that day seeking clarification on a number of points, including why an affidavit was prepared if there was no deal.

 

Full story:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/former-ontario-tory-leader-patrick-brown-discussed-375000-deal-with-future-pc-candidate/article38026035/

josh
Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Forum poll taken yesterday has it PC 44 NDP 27 Liberals 23.

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.

Except for that one time back when I was still almost a teenager.  But we all know what kind of annulment that marriage ended in.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Forum poll taken yesterday has it PC 44 NDP 27 Liberals 23.

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.

Except for that one time back when I was still almost a teenager.  But we all know what kind of annulment that marriage ended in.

It is a sign of a steady upward trend, though.

NorthReport
NorthReport
Paladin1

NorthReport wrote:

PC 47%

Libs 26%

That's great news.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Proletarians want revolution. The NDP is unwilling to give the proletarians a revolution, however Mike Harris and Doug Ford always are. We will replace Liberal crony capitalism with our own. Golf anyone? Offer people a "Common Sense Revolution", and you can get a majority FPTP government, often with well over 40%, and described cynically as a "clear mandate". Want to sell something? Say it is revolutionary!

Everybody wants a revolution. Only the modern Mike Harris Ontario PCs are willing to give it to them. They will of course wind up with all of the same things they got before. Capitalist revolutions by the truckload. Doug Ford is going to run on the legacy of Mike Harris and probably win.

What is ironic is that the brains trust in the modern PC Party seems to understand the Communist Manifesto much better than the NDP. Once you declare class theory, you have let the cat out of the bag. You can then slice and dice society in any way you want, if you have a willing ear.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

progressive17 wrote:

Proletarians want revolution. The NDP is unwilling to give the proletarians a revolution, however Mike Harris and Doug Ford always are. We will replace Liberal crony capitalism with our own. Golf anyone? Offer people a "Common Sense Revolution", and you can get a majority FPTP government, often with well over 40%, and described cynically as a "clear mandate". Want to sell something? Say it is revolutionary!

Everybody wants a revolution. Only the modern Mike Harris Ontario PCs are willing to give it to them. They will of course wind up with all of the same things they got before. Capitalist revolutions by the truckload. Doug Ford is going to run on the legacy of Mike Harris and probably win.

What is ironic is that the brains trust in the modern PC Party seems to understand the Communist Manifesto much better than the NDP. Once you declare class theory, you have let the cat out of the bag. You can then slice and dice society in any way you want, if you have a willing ear.

Well, there is a thread about the NDP platform, which seems much more revolutionary to me than anything Ford will be proposing. What revolutionary promises do you think the NDP should be offering instead?

NorthReport

Ontario NDP Promises Free Dental Care If They Win Election

https://www.insauga.com/ontario-ndp-promises-free-dental-care-if-they-wi...

WWWTT

Ya actually the pc and liberals are good at talking a big talk. Lots of brovado chest thumping sweet nothings magic beans and smoke and mirrors. And the constant corporate media attention is right there to help the corporate sponsored party win. 

Like I said before, huge chunk of voters are lost causes and or suckers. 

NorthReport

Hydro One privatization is the reason voters distrust Kathleen Wynne

http://rabble.ca/columnists/2018/03/hydro-one-privatization-reason-voter...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Hydro One privatization is the reason voters distrust Kathleen Wynne

http://rabble.ca/columnists/2018/03/hydro-one-privatization-reason-voter...

 

What a joke. Interesting that this article does not point out that Mike Harris started the privatization process in 2001. This failure to make that clear every time the issue comes up is the reason that we will be looking at Premier Ford in a few months.

The left when it comes to communications has its head up its ass.

NorthReport

Why don't the Liberals hold off on the election for a year and change their leader!

Kathleen Wynne remains most unpopular premier in Canada: poll

https://globalnews.ca/news/4099335/kathleen-wynne-unpopular-premier-poll/

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Why don't the Liberals hold off on the election for a year and change their leader!

Fixed election date.

NorthReport

That only makes sense if the Liberals didn't have a majority government. They do. 

Mighty Middle wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Why don't the Liberals hold off on the election for a year and change their leader!

Fixed election date.

NorthReport

dp

NorthReport

For Kathleen Wynne, repeating past election comebacks won't be enough

The Ontario Liberals' reputation for pulling off political comebacks is exaggerated

 

This might provide an opportunity to the New Democrats and their more popular leader. Andrea Horwath has averaged an approval rating of 36 per cent since the beginning of the year, with just 22 per cent disapproving of her. But the 2014 campaign did not improve Horwath's standing — her disapproval rating increased by 10 points during the course of that campaign.

Campaigns don't start at zero

For the Liberals to pull off an upset, they will need to replicate the kind of comeback Christy Clark's B.C. Liberals managed in 2013, when they were down 15 points going into the provincial election campaign before they won it by four.

Horwath might look to Rachel Notley's Alberta New Democrats for inspiration. They picked up about 23 points in the course of their successful 2015 provincial campaign.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-polls-comebacks-1.4585921

NorthReport
josh

Mainstreet poll:  PC 50 Liberals 24 NDP 18

https://www.scribd.com/document/375669588/Mainstreet-Ontario-Apr6

Needless to say quite different than the Forum poll a week ago that had it 36-29-26.

josh

Ekos:  PC 43 L 29 NDP 21

NorthReport

The stench of the campaign on the left, govern on the right Liberals, and their supporters, are the ones to blame for the right-wing strength in Ontario. Voters had had more than enough of the Liberal lies.

Ahead in the polls, Doug Ford heading to Sudbury

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2018/04/08/ahead-in-the-polls-doug-ford-he...

 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
The stench of the campaign on the left, govern on the right Liberals, and their supporters, are the ones to blame for the right-wing strength in Ontario. Voters had had more than enough of the Liberal lies.

It's a shame there couldn't be a third choice.

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