Sault Ste. Marie Byelection

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jerrym
Sault Ste. Marie Byelection

Thursday's Sault Ste. Marie byelection provides a test of the Liberals popularity in a riding that they have held since 2003. The announcement of $15 an hour minimum salary, an easier unionization process, equal pay for part-time workers, 10 personal emergency leave days a year, and a minimum of 3 weeks vacation after five years of employment with the same firm just a couple of days before the byelection suggest the Liberals are worried about losing both the byelection and the provincial election next year, especially when Wynne herself said that she saw no reason to change the small annual increments in minimum wage based on inflation as recently as January. 

A provincial byelection in Sault Ste. Marie on Thursday will give voters a chance to weigh in on Ontario’s Liberal government a year ahead of the general election. ...

But now victory in the Sault appears within reach of all three parties, all of which have campaigned hard and recruited locally respected candidates, according to Trevor Tchir, a political science professor at Sault Ste. Marie’s Algoma University. ...

Observers are interested to see if the Liberals can hold on to the riding, despite recent low poll numbers for the party and Premier Kathleen Wynne, Tchir said. They’ll face tough opposition from the Progressive Conservative Party, which is polling well across the province, and the NDP, which has a strong northern caucus.

PC Candidate Ross Romano, a city councillor, got a head start in the race, Tchir said. He was nominated in early November to represent his party in the June 2018 general election – before Liberal cabinet minister David Orazietti announced he would step down in December, prompting the byelection.

Romano has been telling voters it’s time to take the government to task on high electricity rates and Liberal scandals, a message the PCs would like to see resonate in Sault Ste. Marie and across the province next year, said Tchir.

The NDP recruited another city councillor, Joe Krmpotich, in January. Since then, party leader Andrea Horwath has been up to Sault Ste. Marie at least half a dozen times campaigning on his behalf, she said. The trips have shown her the people of Sault Ste. Marie aren’t happy with being ignored by the Liberal government and want someone to fight for them, Horwath said.

The Liberals were the last to find a candidate. Former Mayor Debbie Amaroso was nominated in late April, less than a week before the writ dropped. Her message to voters is that an MPP from the governing party is in a better position to get things done that one in opposition. ...

Major local issues include electricity prices and jobs, said Tchir. Sault Ste. Marie is one of several northern cities hoping to be home to a chromite smelter that would provide a boost to local employment and economic growth, and all three candidates have vowed to advocate for it to be built in the area.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-minimum-wage-announcement-...

 

jerrym

Since byelections usually have very poor voter turnouts compared to general elections, the advance poll turnout seems relatively high compared to many other byelections, suggesting more than the usual level of voter interest in this byelection.

As of May 29, 2017, preliminary figures indicate that 3,065 voters cast their ballot at advance polls in the Sault Ste. Marie by-election.  In comparison, 3,966 voters cast their ballot at advance polls in Sault Ste. Marie in the 2014 General Election.

Advance polling took place between May 20, 2017 and May 26, 2017. Voters also had the opportunity to vote in person by special ballot at the local returning office, by home visit, or by mail.  

Election day is on June 1, 2017. An estimated 62,944 eligible voters will be able to cast their ballot in the Sault Ste. Marie provincial by-election. Eligible voters are encouraged to visit elections.on.ca to find out where, when and how to vote.

There are 7 candidates running to fill the seat as Member of Provincial Parliament for the electoral district of Sault Ste. Marie. A complete list of candidates is available at elections.on.ca.

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/estimate-of-advance-voter-turnout-f...

 

Geoff

jerrym wrote:

Thursday's Sault Ste. Marie byelection provides a test of the Liberals popularity in a riding that they have held since 2003. The announcement of $15 an hour minimum salary, an easier unionization process, equal pay for part-time workers, 10 personal emergency leave days a year, and a minimum of 3 weeks vacation after five years of employment with the same firm just a couple of days before the byelection suggest the Liberals are worried about losing both the byelection and the provincial election next year, especially when Wynne herself said that she saw no reason to change the small annual increments in minimum wage based on inflation as recently as January. 

A provincial byelection in Sault Ste. Marie on Thursday will give voters a chance to weigh in on Ontario’s Liberal government a year ahead of the general election. ...

But now victory in the Sault appears within reach of all three parties, all of which have campaigned hard and recruited locally respected candidates, according to Trevor Tchir, a political science professor at Sault Ste. Marie’s Algoma University. ...

Observers are interested to see if the Liberals can hold on to the riding, despite recent low poll numbers for the party and Premier Kathleen Wynne, Tchir said. They’ll face tough opposition from the Progressive Conservative Party, which is polling well across the province, and the NDP, which has a strong northern caucus.

PC Candidate Ross Romano, a city councillor, got a head start in the race, Tchir said. He was nominated in early November to represent his party in the June 2018 general election – before Liberal cabinet minister David Orazietti announced he would step down in December, prompting the byelection.

Romano has been telling voters it’s time to take the government to task on high electricity rates and Liberal scandals, a message the PCs would like to see resonate in Sault Ste. Marie and across the province next year, said Tchir.

The NDP recruited another city councillor, Joe Krmpotich, in January. Since then, party leader Andrea Horwath has been up to Sault Ste. Marie at least half a dozen times campaigning on his behalf, she said. The trips have shown her the people of Sault Ste. Marie aren’t happy with being ignored by the Liberal government and want someone to fight for them, Horwath said.

The Liberals were the last to find a candidate. Former Mayor Debbie Amaroso was nominated in late April, less than a week before the writ dropped. Her message to voters is that an MPP from the governing party is in a better position to get things done that one in opposition. ...

Major local issues include electricity prices and jobs, said Tchir. Sault Ste. Marie is one of several northern cities hoping to be home to a chromite smelter that would provide a boost to local employment and economic growth, and all three candidates have vowed to advocate for it to be built in the area.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-minimum-wage-announcement-...

 

Should the Liberals hang on to the riding as a result of the labour reforms introduced this week, the lessons for the NDP ought to be that a) Wynne and company are good at eating our lunch, and b) in 2018 we'd better serve up something bold enough that the Liberals won't have the appetite to eat it. If they go bold, we must go bolder.

jerrym

Geoff wrote:

Should the Liberals hang on to the riding as a result of the labour reforms introduced this week, the lessons for the NDP ought to be that a) Wynne and company are good at eating our lunch, and b) in 2018 we'd better serve up something bold enough that the Liberals won't have the appetite to eat it. If they go bold, we must go bolder.

The Liberals may not be waiting until next year for the provincial election. Sault Ste. Marie could be a test run for an early election. While the article below is by a former PC candidate, I do agree that a late August or early September election would help the Liberals avoid dealing with the publicity of two trials of four senior Liberal staffers (http://www.metronews.ca/news/canada/2017/02/08/two-liberals-facing-elect...) and likely catch the other parties ill-prepared for an election.

I also posted the article below on the likelihood of an early election under the Kathleen Wynne thread, but I think it is worth considering here also.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/denley-heres-how-the-ontario...

jerrym

Looks like the Liberals are going to finish a distant third in a riding they have held since 2003.

129 of 174 polls have reported in and Ross Romano has widened his lead to a 699 vote margin

ROMANO, ROMANO, PC Party of Ontario:  6,467     38.44 %

KRMPOTICH, JOE Ontario NDP/NPD 5,768 34.29 %

AMAROSO, DEBBIE Ontario Liberal Party 3,939 23.42 %

FLANNIGAN, KARA Green Party of Ontario 343 2.04 %

ZNONEOFTHE, ABOVE None of the Above Party 221 1.31 %

BALFOUR, GENE Libertarian 50 0.30 %

TURMEL, JOHN Paupers 34 0.20 %

https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/live-blog-2017-byelection-631668

 

robbie_dee

Conservatives seem to be pulling away here.

SAULT STE. MARIE

142 polls reporting out of 174 polls

Candidate (Last Name, First Name)Political PartyNumber of VotesPercentage of VotesMarginROMANO, ROSSPC Party of Ontario7,85239.16 %1,038KRMPOTICH, JOEOntario NDP/NPD6,81433.98 %
AMAROSO, DEBBIEOntario Liberal Party4,65323.20 %
FLANNIGAN, KARAGreen Party of Ontario3921.95 %
ZNONEOFTHE, ABOVENone of the Above Party2501.25 %
BALFOUR, GENELibertarian550.27 %
TURMEL, JOHNPaupers360.18 %
Percentage of polls reporting:81.61 %
Voter turnout:34.17 %
Registered Electors on List:58,690
Results Last Updated Date:06/01/17
Results Last Updated Time:10:05 pm

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

167 out of 174 polls

ROMANO, ROSS PC Party of Ontario: 9,926 votes or 40.14 %

KRMPOTICH, JOE Ontario NDP/NPD: 8,191 votes or 33.12 %

AMAROSO, DEBBIE Ontario Liberal Party: 5,722 votes or 23.14 %

FLANNIGAN, KARA Green Party of Ontario: 485 votes or 1.96 %

ZNONEOFTHE, ABOVE None of the Above Party: 295 votes or 1.19 %

BALFOUR, GENE Libertarian: 65 votes or 0.26 %

TURMEL, JOHN Paupers: 46 votes or 0.19 %

...so much for an early election, then...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

(self-delete.  dupe post).

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Huge win for the PC's.

Respectable gain in vote share for the ONDP

Disastrous setback for the Liberals(their vote share fell by over thirty percentage points).

mark_alfred

That's great.  The NDP came close.  PCs won.  And the Liberals lost. 

NorthReport

It looks like the only way to stop the PCs from forming government is for progressive forces to rally around Andrea Horwath

jerrym

PCs beat NDP by 7% but Liberals lose by 17% in a riding they have held since 2003. NDP needs to develop a provincial campaign that does not allow them to be outflanked on the left so they can focus on fighting the PCs in the election. 

The final tally is in and Ross Romano finishes with a margin of 1,856 votes ahead of Joe Krmpotich.

 

ROMANO, ROSS PC Party of Ontario, 10,391 votes or 40.30% 

KRMPOTICH, JOE Ontario NDP/NPD, 8,535 votes or 33.10%

AMAROSO, DEBBIE Ontario Liberal Party, 5,919 votes or 22.96%

FLANNIGAN, KARA Green Party of Ontario, 512 votes or 1.99%

ZNONEOFTHE, ABOVE None of the Above Party, 310 votes or 1.20%

BALFOUR, GENE Libertarian, 71 votes or 0.28%

TURMEL, JOHN Paupers, 47 votes or 0.18%

https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/live-blog-2017-byelection-631668

 

NorthReport
Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
NDP needs to develop a provincial campaign that does not allow them to be outflanked on the left so they can focus on fighting the PCs in the election.

Doesn't the fact that the Liberals finished third in the race, despite Wynne suddenly moving on things like the $15/hour minimum wage and other aspects of the better workplaces report suggest that the "fake left, move right" strategy is no longer working? With the NDP in second place there, that gives them a strong jump-off point to meet that objective.

SeekingAPolitic...

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jerrym wrote:
NDP needs to develop a provincial campaign that does not allow them to be outflanked on the left so they can focus on fighting the PCs in the election.

Doesn't the fact that the Liberals finished third in the race, despite Wynne suddenly moving on things like the $15/hour minimum wage and other aspects of the better workplaces report suggest that the "fake left, move right" strategy is no longer working? With the NDP in second place there, that gives them a strong jump-off point to meet that objective.

It don't know if it will work again but the Liberals have made a bet that they will grab NDP voters again.  With the announced labour reformers they said that they will fight the election in NDP terriotory.  They could have come up reforms that favoured the right to fight over conservatives terriotory.  But No.  They see salvation through with destruction of the NDP. 

If the liberals decide that tonights results means they to go after some of the con vote, you know I think the NDP wins.  But I suspect they double down again and push every to make sure they are the progressive party of ontario.  Its like Highlander movie, "There can only be one".  Either the libs or NDP will get the crowned the progressive force that will keep the right wing barbarains at bay. 

It just hit me, eurka moment.  If I was a liberal political guru this would do.  Most people have no idea what they think of the current Con leader.  This is a dream come true,  its time to smear potitically con leader as political love child of hukad and harris.  It does not matter if it true, what matters is what people think.  The liberal have the money to paint to con leader as barbarian coming to strip the public services to give tax cuts to the wealthy.  And final cherry on this beatuiful tart is start comparing him trump.  That is step 1, now to the NDP smash like I said "There can only be one".  Starting talking about you how the libs are defenders of government sercives,  we the liberals are a proven safe hand angaist coming Conservative barbarism.  We will save you ontarians  from coming tide.  Its was liberal governments that stopped Harris,Eves,Hudak, and now am to lazy to look up the  con leader, and it as means the liberals have a chance to paint the con leader as barbarian in my mind, like  people would have near ever heard his name the libs can paint a very distirubing picture of him to the uninformed public.  Thats how I would run the campagin for the libs.

mark_alfred

From my perspective, there's two different regions at play:  Toronto and the rest.  In Toronto, a large portion of the workers are civil servants, and some of these are home owners.  These people are terrified of a Conservative government who potentially may lay them all off.  They're also terrified of anything disrupting the market and causing interest rates to rise (could affect mortgages).  So, they vote Liberal, and justify this with "the Libs outflanked the NDP on the left".  Many in the rest of Ontario sees the Libs as corrupt liars, and are completely baffled with Toronto's continued support of the Liberals (I'm from Toronto, and I recall talking with some after last election who were amazed that Toronto chose the Libs over the NDP -- it was completely baffling to them).  That said, most in the rest of Ontario don't wish to see anything radically different.  They just want reliable government that doesn't fuck up their lives in the way the Liberals have.

wage zombie

I agree that civil servants & home owners are giving the Liberals votes in Toronto.

I think another reason Toronto is voting Lib right now is that Wynne is from there and Horwath is not.  Had Pupatello won the Liberal leadership I think the Libs would be weaker in Toronto.

jerrym

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jerrym wrote:
NDP needs to develop a provincial campaign that does not allow them to be outflanked on the left so they can focus on fighting the PCs in the election.

Doesn't the fact that the Liberals finished third in the race, despite Wynne suddenly moving on things like the $15/hour minimum wage and other aspects of the better workplaces report suggest that the "fake left, move right" strategy is no longer working? With the NDP in second place there, that gives them a strong jump-off point to meet that objective.

The announcement of the increase in minimum wage to $15 and labour reforms were in the newspaper three days before the byelection and formally announced two days before the byelection. Many voters who do not pay much attention to news would not have heard of this. Those who follow politics closely often are political partisans who are not likely to change their vote. A Liberal move to the left could still work in the 2018 election when time and an advertising blitz could feature these changes, just as a left-sounding platform helped the provincial and federal Liberals win their last election. Trying to out con the Cons would be difficult as Patrick Brown comes from the Stephen Harper federal Cons and even voted to reopen the abortion debate rather than the PCs.

ctrl190

wage zombie wrote:

I agree that civil servants & home owners are giving the Liberals votes in Toronto.

I think another reason Toronto is voting Lib right now is that Wynne is from there and Horwath is not.  Had Pupatello won the Liberal leadership I think the Libs would be weaker in Toronto.

I think this is a good point. Horwath and her folksy, bread and butter populism does not appeal to Toronto. It also explains why vets like Marchese and Prue were turfed in Toronto in 2014 even when the NDP's vote share across the province went up.

Shifting demographics in much of Toronto are hurting the NDP.  The modern Liberal Party of Wynne, Trudeau and Adam Vaughan speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter in the Annex  who supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or income inequality. The 'granola munchers' in Riverdale and High Park are expiring, and are being replaced by Bay Street accountants with two SUVs.