A look at the energy-efficient future of the 2030s

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Doug
A look at the energy-efficient future of the 2030s

 

Doug

[url=http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3140]USA 2034: A look back at the 25th Anniversary year[/url]

quote:

After an extended period of bewildering, painful and rewarding transition, the people of the USA finally feel that they have found their feet underneath them, with a clear and hopeful path to the future. Oil consumption is down to 6.6 million barrels/day, 30% of our 2007 peak oil use, and CO2 emissions are 26% of their 2011 peak, a matter of pride for most Americans.

Rapid reductions in world carbon emissions (almost as great as US reductions), plus some negative feedback loops, have kept Global Warming effects manageable. Persistent and prolonged droughts in the American Southwest have been the largest effect so far in the USA.


Well, one can hope it all works out but I think as this article also makes clear, parts of the process are going to hurt.

bliter

An interesting site and story - that yielded 237 comments between 26/29 October.

After peak oil predictions. Some positives with much more electrified train travel, for instance, but much to be concerned about.

quote:

237 comments on USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year
Comments can no longer be added to this story.


bliter

This is absolutely incredible - though you probably wouldn't want to live close downwind of a treatment area:

[url=http://www.greenchipstocks.com/aqx_p/2942?gclid=CM6OlNuj7I8CFReHhgodagES...

excerpt:

quote:

Research at leading universities suggests that algae could supply enough fuel to meet all of America's transportation needs in the form of biodiesel... using a scant 0.2% of the nation's land.

In fact, enough algae can be grown to replace all transportation fuels in the U.S. on only 15,000 square miles, or 4.5 million acres of land.

That's about the size of Maryland.

How is this all possible?

Technology exists right now to cultivate algae that can be used as fuel, using human and animal waste as fertilizer.


Producing fuel while resolving a sewage problem. [i]That[/i] I call killing two huge birds with one stone.

farnival

wouldn't that be in this case "killing two [i]turds[/i] with one stone"? [img]biggrin.gif" border="0[/img]

bliter

quote:


Originally posted by farnival:
[b]wouldn't that be in this case "killing two [i]turds[/i] with one stone"? [img]biggrin.gif" border="0[/img] [/b]

That's good. I just hope in your four minute haste to post that you read and absorbed enough to comment further on the topic.

Actually, it was three turds, including....ah well. [img]smile.gif" border="0[/img]

Just hope the thread, also, wasn't killed.

farnival

pardon my attempt at humour. i didn't realise levity was a potential thread derailer. in future i will attempt more gravitas and brow furrowing while posting.

it's an interesting scenario though, that i'm still trying to read, but the context certainly changed for me negatively at this point early on....

[QUOTE...]The North American electrical grid failed in it’s goal of 90% non-GHG generation due to a hotter than expected summer, but 89.7% is still a major step forward ! Wind turbines supplied nearly half the total MWh, and nuclear power over a quarter.[b] For the first time the USA completed six nuclear reactors this year (with one each in Canada and Mexico as well)[/b]... [/QUOTE]

any vision including nuclear in the mix is dystopian in my view, which is why i'm skimming the rest of it. and with all the electrical talk, not a single mention of battery storage solutions, essentially making the nuclear component irrelavent. if even a fraction of the money spent developing more nuclear was spent developing long term industrial sized battery storage for the electricity generated by intermittant sources like wind and solar, we could achieve alot more than this scenario, much sooner.

Jingles

Technology will save us, and we won't even have to turn out the hall light when we aren't home. If anyone thinks I'm gonna give up my FSM-given right to run my air conditioner alongside my furnace all winter, they can kiss my privileged, entitled ass.

Thanks again, Technology! If it wasn't for you, we'd have to make tough choices about our attitudes toward reproduction and consumption!

farnival

well jingles, that consumption is the real issue. the fellow that wrote this piece appears to be an electric rail expert/enthusiast, so it seems to me that the whole piece isn't about reducing consumption, just shifting production of the electricity to "non GHG" fuels, which nuclear is considered by some misguided souls to be part of.

in toronto, we have the provincial Liberal government, last term approving and beginning construction on the Portlands Energy Centre, a 550mw natural gas fired pollution factory right on our beachfront downtown. the rationale? peak load consumption in toronto can't be maintained with current transmission capacity. the reality? due to Toronto Hydro's aggressive conservation and consumption education programs, toronto has reduced it's total consumption for the past two summers, noted as two of the hottest on record. this is the opposite of the rest of the province.

so tell me why we need a peak load power plant, using a fossilfuel with only about 9 years supply left in the country, when we are reducing our consumption?

the answer simply seems to be that certain corporate interests must have ways of making money off fossil fuels. period. this plant is not and never was necessary if conservation and consumption controls that were suggested and fully costed were put into place.

this vision of the future outlined in this article seems to be one of increased electricity, not less. that wouldn't be a problem if it was self-generated and non-fossil, and you didn't need to burn it or spit atoms to get it. but that doesn't appear to be the case.

bliter

quote:


Originally posted by farnival:
[b]pardon my attempt at humour. i didn't realise levity was a potential thread derailer. in future i will attempt more gravitas and brow furrowing while posting.

it's an interesting scenario though, that i'm still trying to read, but the context certainly changed for me negatively at this point early on....

[QUOTE...]The North American electrical grid failed in it’s goal of 90% non-GHG generation due to a hotter than expected summer, but 89.7% is still a major step forward ! Wind turbines supplied nearly half the total MWh, and nuclear power over a quarter.[b] For the first time the USA completed six nuclear reactors this year (with one each in Canada and Mexico as well)[/b]...


any vision including nuclear in the mix is dystopian in my view, which is why i'm skimming the rest of it. and with all the electrical talk, not a single mention of battery storage solutions, essentially making the nuclear component irrelavent. if even a fraction of the money spent developing more nuclear was spent developing long term industrial sized battery storage for the electricity generated by intermittant sources like wind and solar, we could achieve alot more than this scenario, much sooner.[/b][/QUOTE]

You are responding to the first link, not the link to which your humor responded - which brought my response, in kind.

I'm not sure of your idea re: electricity excess to immediate requirement, charging industrial-sized batteries. Those "accumulators" exist in water that remains behind the dam as more demand is filled by wind, photo-voltaic and other (hopefully) green methods of production.

farnival

ah, bliter i see now the haste you were referring to! i was wading through mr. electric train's treatise and assumed the bit you quoted was further on than i had read.

the algae thing is interesting, from a transitional fuel point of view i think, but it still involves burning something, which produces pollution. the faster we can get away from burning things to make fuel, the faster we move to a better world in general.

i saw the part about the excess energy being stored behind dams in the form of water, but that is what we do now. in order to properly utilise intermittant sources of power generation like wind and solar, there needs to be a way to store the actual power, hence batteries. there is a very cool concept called a [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_battery]flow battery[/url] that i linked to in other threads on energy, and i've seen printed literature that looks amazing. the problem is research and development.

Using the example of the powerplant earlier at 700million dollars and counting, imagine the research that could be done to make household sized storage for power! each home could have a solar array, and smaller scale wind turbines could be sited in neighbourhoods providing district power.

this isn't a dumb thing to pursue, contrary to the fossil fuel lobby would have you believe. what is dumb is blowing that cash on obsolete fossil fuel burning and the companion plan in Ontario to spend another $40-60 BILLION!!!!! on more nukes! nuclear power was and is almost entirely subsidised by public money. so why not use that money to create an industry and then export the technology? that would be a future i could like. and with more decentralised, self generated power, and ways for individuals to monitor it, people might begin to make the connection between consumption and generation.

bliter

I agree. Flow batteries look very interesting. This excerpt from Wikipedia:

quote:

Applications

Taking the above considerations together it should be apparent that flow batteries are normally considered for relatively large (1 kW - many MW) stationary applications. These are load levelling, where the battery is used to store cheap night-time electricity and provide electricity when it is more costly, as well as storing energy from renewable sources such as wind or solar for discharge during periods of peak demand; peak shaving, where spikes of demand are met by the battery; and UPS, where the battery is used if the main power fails to provide an uninterrupted supply.

Because flow batteries can be rapidly "recharged" by replacing the electrolyte, they have been proposed for electric vehicles, and the use of vanadium redox flow batteries for load levelling in wind farm applications is already showing promise.

A further potential application for redox flow batteries lies in the fact that all cells share the same electrolyte/s. Therefore, the electrolyte/s may be charged using a given number of cells and discharged with a different number. Because the voltage of the battery is proportional to the number of cells used the battery can therefore act as a very powerful dc-dc converter. In addition, if the number of cells is continuously changed (on the input and/ or output side) power conversion can also be ac-dc, ac-ac or dc-ac, with the frequency limited by that of the switching gear.