I doubt Debater would be gloating about the Green showing if they weren't hurting the NDP with it.
Three Byelections Called
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:26
#202
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:26
#203
newest results put the NDP 1 vote ahead. Hopefully, that trend will hold and accelerate. The Greens are only running this close, I think, because the local Liberals voted for them strategically just to mess over the NDP.
No, it seems that their increase is coming equally from the Conservatives & the NDP
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:26
#204
Not looking at all good for the Liberals as their vote has droped more than 50% in BC and is down in Ontatio as well.
Date / Event / Riding / NDP / Cons / Libs / Grns
2011 / GE / Durham / 21% / 55% / 18% / 5%
2012 / BY / Durham / 27% / 51% / 17% / 4%
2011 / GE / Calgary - Centre / 15% / 58% / 18% / 12%
2012 / BY / Calgary-Centre / 5% / 36% / 33% / 26%
2011 / GE / Victoria / 51% / 24% / 14% / 12%
2012 / BY / Victoria / 37% / 13% / 12% / 37%
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:27
#205
VICTORIA:
Candidate Party Votes %
Green Party Donald Galloway 2577 36.9
Conservative Dale Gann 894 12.8
Libertarian Art Lowe 36 0.5
Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney 54 0.8
NDP Murray Rankin 2556 36.6
LiberalPaul Summerville 860 12.3
Polls reporting: 56/256 Voter turnout: 6,977 of 88,886 registered electors (7.9%)
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:32
#206
NDP numbers have shrunk somewhat in Durham, and Liberal numbers have grown slightly. Not particularly significant, but will affect the overall numbers. Conservatives over 50% there.
DURHAM [190/236]
Conservative - 50.6%
NDP - 26.7%
Liberal - 16.8%
The NDP is 6% Higher then in 2011 in Durham according to your post. The liberals are Slightly lower then in 2011.
New DemocraticTammy Schoep 21.10
LiberalGrant Humes 17.85-
So Grant Humes has as of the time of Debators post, Dropped 1%
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:33
#207
Well, if the Greens are gaining votes from the Cons, that totally discredits the idea that there could ever be anything progressive about them.
Clearly, the Greens now exist solely to keep Harper in power.
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:33
#208
DURHAM:
Party Votes %
Green Party Virginia Ervin 1,296 4.1
Liberal Grant Humes 5,373 17.1
Christian Heritage Party Andrew Moriarity 400 1.3
Online Party Michael Nicula 129 0.4
NDP-New Democratic Party Larry O'Connor 8311 26.5
Conservative Erin O'Toole 15840 50.5
Polls reporting: 221/236Voter turnout: 31,349 of 95,296 registered electors (32.9%)
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:38
#209
Bad, bad nite for the Trudeau Liberals who are in 4th place in BC and 3rd place in Ontario.
Date / Event / Riding / NDP / Cons / Libs / Grns
2011 / GE / Durham / 21% / 55% / 18% / 5%
2012 / BY / Durham / 27% / 51% / 17% / 4%
2011 / GE / Calgary - Centre / 15% / 58% / 18% /12%
2012 / BY / Calgary-Centre / 4% / 36% / 33% / 24%
2011 / GE / Victoria / 51% / 24% / 14% / 12%
2012 / BY / Victoria / 37% / 13% / 12% / 36%
[/quote]
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:38
#210
CALGARY CENTRE:
Candidate Party Votes %
Joan Crockatt Conservative 6755 36.2
Antoni Grochowski Independent 96 0.5
Harvey Locke Liberal 6145 33.0
Dan Meades NDP 778 4.2
Tony Prashad Libertarian 85 0.5
Chris Turner Green 4782 25.7
Polls reporting: 186/263Voter turnout: 18,641 of 93,984 registered electors (19.8%)
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:41
#211
Arthur Cramer
Debater, http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/latest-polling-thread-june-18-.... Go look what you wrote about Jan. You know full well you wrote this.
Oh, and look at your posts above. Why should anyone treat you serioulsy. You love to gloat, don't you. Why are you even here?
I took a look - and guess what? I didn't call Jan any names or engage in any name-calling.
"Actually, Jan, if you want to be an objective political analyst, you need to acknowledge that Justin Trudeau has some good political skills and knows how to campaign. That's how he got elected twice in Quebec, in difficult circumstances. Once against an incumbent Bloc MP, and then in an election in which almost 60 ridings went NDP and very few Quebec incumbents survived. Even giants like Duceppe were toppled."
You didn't look very hard Debater.
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:41
#212
Thanks for that madmax. 
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:42
#213
VICTORIA:
Candidate Party Votes %
Green Party Donald Galloway 3338 36.3
Conservative Dale Gann 1207 13.1
Libertarian Art Lowe 46 0.5
Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney 66 0.7
NDP Murray Rankin 3396 36.9
LiberalPaul Summerville 1145 12.4
Polls reporting: 80/256Voter turnout: 9,864 of 88,886 registered electors (11.1%)
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:44
#214
It looks like a lot of former David Anderson voters in Victoria that switched to the NDP are now switching to the Greens
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:45
#215
Looks like the Cons have held Calgary-Center...they've had the same three-point margin most of the night now.
Victoria is still too close to call-God it'll be tragic if the Greens win. There's no good reason for them to do so. The NDP had the best possible candidate and a good campaign. It looks like some sort of deal was made between the local Cons and the local Libs to throw their support to the Greens just to stick it to Mulcair.
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:46
#216
Arthur Cramer
You know this is starting to look like a bad night for the Libs and the New Dems. Does anyone want to offer an opinion about what the hell is behind the Greens apparent surge? Do people really not know about what they are voting? May is going to be insufferable.
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:47
#217
Arthur Cramer
Ken I would love to think it true, but how do you know a deal was made. Maybe this is Lincoln's "you can fool some of the people some of the time" meme in action. Seriously, I'd love to think you are right. Any suggestions?
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:53
#218
I don't know...but it is suspicious that BOTH of those parties had a large drop in support for their candidates...investigations will be necessary.
What the hell do YOU think happened in Victoria, Arthur? This was one of the safest NDP ridings in the whole damn country.
I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this. If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015?
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:55
#219
Looks like the Cons have held Calgary-Center...they've had the same three-point margin most of the night now.
Victoria is still too close to call-God it'll be tragic if the Greens win. There's no good reason for them to do so. The NDP had the best possible candidate and a good campaign. It looks like some sort of deal was made between the local Cons and the local Libs to throw their support to the Greens just to stick it to Mulcair.
The Liberals are down about 2% there, but both the NDP & Conservatives are down over 10%
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:55
#220
VICTORIA:
Candidate Party Votes %
Green Party Donald Galloway 4735 36.2
Conservative Dale Gann 1723 13.2
Libertarian Art Lowe 77 0.6
Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney 94 0.7
NDP Murray Rankin 4824 36.9
LiberalPaul Summerville 1616 12.4
Polls reporting: 110/256Voter turnout: 13,069 of 88,886 registered electors (14.7%)
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:57
#221
I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this. If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015?
It's premature, the Victoria area has always been a bit quirky in it's voting patterns
Mon, 2012-11-26 23:57
#222
Still very close in Victoria but Rankin has increased his lead to 89 votes.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:00
#223
last look
5 457 v 5 431
out of 14 829
curr. diff. not much over the 1/1000 line, 'd squeak just short of triggering:
2.2 Procedural issues
2.2.1 Automatic judicial recount in the case of a close result
A judicial recount must take place if the difference between the number of votes cast for the candidate with the most votes and the number of votes cast for any other candidate is less than one one-thousandth (1/1000) of the votes cast. The returning officer is obliged to make an application for a judicial recount within four days of the initial results being validated. [300(1)]
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/jud&document=ju...
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:00
#224
last look
5 457 v 5 431
out of 14 829
curr. diff. not much over the 1/1000 line, 'd squeak just short of triggering:
2.2 Procedural issues
2.2.1 Automatic judicial recount in the case of a close result
A judicial recount must take place if the difference between the number of votes cast for the candidate with the most votes and the number of votes cast for any other candidate is less than one one-thousandth (1/1000) of the votes cast. The returning officer is obliged to make an application for a judicial recount within four days of the initial results being validated. [300(1)]
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/jud&document=ju...
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:03
#225
Arthur Cramer
Ken, I have no idea at all. Maybe Mulcair was the wrong choice, and maybe, we didn't have anyone step up who will appeal to Canadians. Maybe the NDP under Jack was a fluke. Maybe people really don't want much change. I don't know. I know nothing about politics in BC, or pretty much any where else. I don't have any answers at all. I will say that I have said over and over that I was concerned the NDP seemed to be doing nothing to develop any kind of national prescense outside of Ottawa. I am distrustful of the so called "brain trust" running things. We had the Party's President run in Winnipeg North and lose by 45 votes to the most shallow and slimy Lib MP in Canada. I can tell you I have been talking to a few what I would call well known NDP former MLAs and MPs who say the next election is in the bag because of revision in riding boundaries. I felt distrustful of that before this, and now I am even more distrustful. I think it is time for the NDP to suck back, reload, and take a look at what its doing and get back in the game. Otherwise, it'll be a masacer in 2015.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:05
#226
last look
5 457 v 5 431
out of 14 829
curr. diff. not much over the 1/1000 line, 'd squeak just short of triggering:2.2 Procedural issues
2.2.1 Automatic judicial recount in the case of a close resultA judicial recount must take place if the difference between the number of votes cast for the candidate with the most votes and the number of votes cast for any other candidate is less than one one-thousandth (1/1000) of the votes cast. The returning officer is obliged to make an application for a judicial recount within four days of the initial results being validated. [300(1)]
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/jud&document=ju...
A little premature. If there are about 30,000 votes cast, the difference would have to be in the order of 30 votes or less.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:08
#227
6 403 v 6 388 on 17 463
auto-recount territory
might not know who wins for some time
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:09
#228
Ken, I have no idea at all. Maybe Mulcair was the wrong choice, and maybe, we didn't have anyone step up who will appeal to Canadians. Maybe the NDP under Jack was a fluke. Maybe people really don't want much change. I don't know. I know nothing about politics in BC, or pretty much any where else. I don't have any answers at all. I will say that I have said over and over that I was concerned the NDP seemed to be doing nothing to develop any kind of national prescense outside of Ottawa. I am distrustful of the so called "brain trust" running things. We had the Party's President run in Winnipeg North and lose by 45 votes to the most shallow and slimy Lib MP in Canada. I can tell you I have been talking to a few what I would call well known NDP former MLAs and MPs who say the next election is in the bag because of revision in riding boundaries. I felt distrustful of that before this, and now I am even more distrustful. I think it is time for the NDP to suck back, reload, and take a look at what its doing and get back in the game. Otherwise, it'll be a masacer in 2015.
Well-put, sadly.
I think it's more Mulcair and his bruqueness, combined with his distrust and hostility towards activist types. If you assume the voters don't want real change, it's totally irrational to seek the leadership of a party whose entire existence is predicated on fighting for radical change.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:11
#229
tie now at 6 585 on 18 070
who expected this?
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:12
#230
The sewage issue became the dominant issue in the local campaign. I think the high cost of cleaning up sewage issue which was instigated by the Liberal Summerville attracted some voters to the Greens who amazingly switched from spending the money to clean up the sewage to saving the taxpayers money revealing their Progressive CONSERVATIVE origins (Elizabeht May and host of other Greens) and the fact that they are much more interested in going green only when the costs are low. When Suzuki attracted 1300 people to their meetings and spoke enthusiastically about their candidate, he sort of endorsed them without endorsing them, even though he then turned around and then said that he was not endorsing them and wanted the sewage treated. Remember Suzuki seriously considered running for the Joe Clark Conservatives in 1980. Many voters would like to believe in the Green ideal but don't want to pay for it. The Greens are now in a tie with 6585 votes each after 140 out of 256 polls.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:12
#231
6 585 vs. 6 585
Yup it'll be a long night.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:13
#232
I recall a GPC blog post of mine from some 5 years ago...
http://www.greenparty.ca/node/3293
Victoria spells the future...
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:14
#233
I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this. If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015?
It's premature, the Victoria area has always been a bit quirky in it's voting patterns
Yup.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:16
#234
The sewage issue became the dominant issue in the local campaign. I think the high cost of cleaning up sewage issue which was instigated by the Liberal Summerville attracted some voters to the Greens who amazingly switched from spending the money to clean up the sewage to saving the taxpayers money revealing their Progressive CONSERVATIVE origins (Elizabeht May and host of other Greens) and the fact that they are much more interested in going green only when the costs are low. When Suzuki attracted 1300 people to their meetings and spoke enthusiastically about their candidate, he sort of endorsed them without endorsing them, even though he then turned around and then said that he was not endorsing them and wanted the sewage treated. Remember Suzuki seriously considered running for the Joe Clark Conservatives in 1980. Many voters would like to believe in the Green ideal but don't want to pay for it. The Greens are now in a tie with 6585 votes each after 140 out of 256 polls.
Good point. Turnout will be less than 40%. Maybe the Greens were also more enthusiatic.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:19
#235
Crockatt has widened her lead to 5.2%
CALGARY CENTRE:
Candidate Party Votes %
Joan Crockatt Conservative 9479 37.5
Antoni Grochowski Independent 128 0.5
Harvey Locke Liberal 8181 33.0
Dan Meades NDP 933 3.7
Tony Prashad Libertarian 107 0.4
Chris Turner Green 6455 25.5
Polls reporting: 240/263 Voter turnout: 25,284 of 93,984 registered electors (26.9%)
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:22
#236
Arthur Cramer
Suzuki almost ran for the Tories? Ok, that is it for me where he is concerned. What a moron!
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:28
#237
Suzuki almost ran for the Tories? Ok, that is it for me where he is concerned. What a moron!
Joe Clark's Tories are worlds away from today's Conservatives
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:29
#238
Crockatt has widened her lead to 5.2%
CALGARY CENTRE:
Candidate Party Votes %
Joan Crockatt Conservative 9479 37.5
Antoni Grochowski Independent 128 0.5
Harvey Locke Liberal 8181 33.0
Dan Meades NDP 933 3.7
Tony Prashad Libertarian 107 0.4
Chris Turner Green 6455 25.5
Polls reporting: 240/263 Voter turnout: 25,284 of 93,984 registered electors (26.9%)
Looks like the Forum poll nailed it
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:31
#239
I don't know...but it is suspicious that BOTH of those parties had a large drop in support for their candidates...investigations will be necessary.
What the hell do YOU think happened in Victoria, Arthur? This was one of the safest NDP ridings in the whole damn country.
I've also started a thread as to whether Mulcair should stay on as leader after this. If this is how his first round of byelections go as leader, does he have any hopes at all of leading the NDP to victory in 2015?
VICTORIA is not one of the safest NDP ridings in the country. Solid yes, but not safe. It was Liberal under David Anderson only a decade ago! And remember what happened to WINNIPEG NORTH a couple of years ago. I would say the safest NDP riding in Canada is VANCOUVER EAST.
And I don't think there's anything suspicious going on unless you want to also ask why the NDP vote dropped to single digits in CALGARY CENTRE. Was it because the NDP voted GREEN to block the LIBERALS from winning? Because the Liberals only narrowly lost there tonight thanks to 25% of the vote going Green. If only about 5% of that 25% had gone Liberal, we would have beaten Crockatt.
Still a good night for the Liberals and Locke has built a strong foundation for the 2015 election.
But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria. She was able to turn out the Green vote in both ridings to massive proportions.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:31
#240
DURHAM:
Party Votes %
Green Party Virginia Ervin 1,324 4.1
Liberal Grant Humes 5,548 17.2
Christian Heritage Party Andrew Moriarity 409 1.3
Online Party Michael Nicula 130 0.4
NDP-New Democratic Party Larry O'Connor 8554 26.5
Conservative Erin O'Toole 16329 50.6
Polls reporting: 227/236 Voter turnout: 32,294 of 95,296 registered electors (33.9%)
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:35
#241
It is lookinglike the Greens will take Victoria. Their lead of 130 plus is starting to be consistent.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:36
#242
Looks like the Cons have held Calgary-Center...they've had the same three-point margin most of the night now.
Victoria is still too close to call-God it'll be tragic if the Greens win. There's no good reason for them to do so. The NDP had the best possible candidate and a good campaign. It looks like some sort of deal was made between the local Cons and the local Libs to throw their support to the Greens just to stick it to Mulcair.
The Liberals are down about 2% there, but both the NDP & Conservatives are down over 10%
Liberals are only 1 point behind the Conservatives in VICTORIA. Not great by any means, but not the embarrasment there for the Libs some were predicting.
Big story tomorrow will be the Liberals coming close to winning in CALGARY CENTRE (and possibly a Green Party upset in VICTORIA ?)
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:37
#243
Victoria Last updated: 00:32 ET Polls reporting: 170/256
Voter turnout: 22,401 of 88,886 registered electors (25.2%)
Green Party | Donald Galloway | 8,140 | 36.3%
NDP | Murray Rankin | 8,001 | 35.7 |
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:38
#244
But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.
Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease 
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:40
#245
But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.
Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease
Actually, what we're seeing tonight is that those comments didn't have much of an effect. Liberals were 2nd in the polling before that storm in a teacup, and they finished 2nd tonight. As David Akin admitted on Twitter tonight, it doesn't look like those controversies had much effect in Alberta. If the Liberals had dropped to 3rd or 4th, then you could say they had an effect, but that didn't happen.
In any event, for the Greens to take 25% of the vote in Calgary Centre and possibly prevent the Liberals from winning and to be in striking distance from winning Victoria means that Elizabeth May could be the happiest person on Parliament Hill tomorrow.
Who would have predicted that?
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:40
#246
Galloway is starting to increase his lead over Rankin (now 184 votes).
VICTORIA:
Candidate Party Votes %
Green Party Donald Galloway 8404 36.3
Conservative Dale Gann 3262 14.1
Libertarian Art Lowe 127 0.5
Christian Heritage Philip G. Ney 125 0.5
NDP Murray Rankin 8220 35.5
LiberalPaul Summerville 2986 12.9
Polls reporting: 175/256Voter turnout: 23,124 of 88,886 registered electors (26.0%)
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:41
#247
Who is this Galloway guy running for the Greens in Victoria? Never heard of him before. Anyone know his story? The only Galloway I know is the British MP.
Whoever he is, he's running one heck of a campaign for the Greens tonight.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:49
#248
But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.
Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease
But how much difference did it actually make? The polls had Crockett leading by about 5% before the remarks, after the remarks & when the actual votes are counted.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:54
#249
But we have to give credit to Elizabeth May - she has hurt the Liberals in Calgary Centre and hurt the NDP in Victoria.
Indeed, but I would give more credit to Jester Trudeau and the Ontario premier's brother. A classic case of foot-in-mouth disease
But how much difference did it actually make? The polls had Crockett leading by about 5% before the remarks, after the remarks & when the actual votes are counted.
Yup. We agree. That's what I said above. Trudeau comments had no effect it seems.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:55
#250
Looks like remaining polls are coming from mainly NDP areas and that ground reports suggest NDP will narrowly win over the Greens in VICTORIA.
But even so, this was supposed to be a solid hold. Seems Elizabeth May could have some coattails in B.C. that could come in handy for the Greens in the next election.
Tue, 2012-11-27 00:56
#251
At 175/256 polls, Galloway had a 184 vote lead over Rankin. At 180 polls, Galloways lead was 315 votes I then wrote that whether Rankin can catch him depends on where the remaining polls as this quick increase is likely from wealthy polls. However, I had a glitch and could not enter this. Now Rankin has a 359 vote lead after 190 polls, likely due to middle and lower class polls coming in. Who wins still depends on where the remaining polls are located.