Latest polling thread Aug 21 2015

Might be economy as much as Duffy. But these are shocking numbers. Very hard to believe these -- not that I would complain if they came true.

JeffWells wrote:

Doesn't Forum's methodology tend to inflate Liberal numbers? That's the only sense I can make of these results. If it had been Cons at 30% and Libs at 23% I'd believe what I'm seeing. But it is a nice headline to see in The Star, because it could move "strategic" voters to make the better choice. A majority and 40% for the NDP is within reach, but I don't think we're there yet.

And 41% for the NDP in Manitoba? Not likley.

is MB and SK combined-- This would suggest SK in high 40s for NDP; MB in low 30s...

adma wrote:

Misfit wrote:

This is also the first poll which breathes life and hope into the Liberals in a long time.

 

Actually, they're not *that* much higher here than when bundled in 3-ways a la Nanos--more like a mild uptick as the Cons collapsed.  Still, would suggest that they're benefiting from the spoils, much like 1993 vs the PC and NDP collapse...

This part is not shocking to me -- this is what I have been saying for a while and why I did not write anyone off.

The Liberals and Conservatives have for different reasons each been in danger of a significant drop-- and this is enough to put the other back in the game or to win. This poll puts the NDP 10 points above so these numbers would be interesting indeed.

I have said I think the Conservatives are at grave risk in this election and that I do not presume that they have good efficiency either. I would not be surprised to see the Conservatives with a shockingly low seat count when the dust settles.

These numbers would really underline why a leader who has governed a long time and accumulated significant negatives should really think of retiring before going into another election.

I think it is worth pointing out that every PM in Canadian history has had a pretty good idea when to quit. They have lost elections but when they have had the negatives pile up like this in the past, previous PMs got out before they would have been really thrashed. This has saved their parties from the worst defeats. The exception was of course the Conservatives in 1993 -- who in spite of Mulroney stepping down went intot he next campaign and completely blew it allowing for their worst defeat ever.

This time Harper thought he had enough of the election campaign rigged that he could survive and he is going in with this risk. Now the campaign is just starting and we will see if the money and rule changes -- and whatever cheating they can manage -- can save the CPC from disaster.

Frank Graves heads up for tomorrow's Ekos poll:

some real movement. Duffy definitely registering

I dont see how Nanos can be taken very seriously. It consolidates 4 weekly samples of only 250 respondents, dropping the eaarliest week and adding the latest. It is therefore staggered over a full 4 weeks.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

Doesn't Forum's methodology tend to inflate Liberal numbers? That's the only sense I can make of these results. If it had been Cons at 30% and Libs at 23% I'd believe what I'm seeing. But it is a nice headline to see in The Star, because it could move "strategic" voters to make the better choice. A majority and 40% for the NDP is within reach, but I don't think we're there yet.

And 41% for the NDP in Manitoba? Not likley.

is MB and SK combined-- This would suggest SK in high 40s for NDP; MB in low 30s...

If these numbers are true for Saskatchewan, then that will put small city and rural seats outside of Regina and Saskatoon in play.

As for the Manitoba numbers, I would like to place them in historical context:

The combined right-wing vote in Manitoba is roughly around 40%. The last time the federal NDP had that much support was in the 1980 election, when the NDP won 7 of the province's federal seats. At current polling figures, we would likely see a return to traditional voting patterns, with the NDP taking back Winnipeg North and Elmwood, while the Liberals take back Winnipeg South Centre, St. Boniface, and Winnipeg south. If the numbers really change, then that could put a great number of "safe" Manitoba seats inside and outside of Winnipeg in play. Would an NDP victory in Selkirk, Dauphin, and Brandon be out of the question in these circumstances?

Some people's reactions to this poll reminds me of a conversation I had with some guy in a pub on 2011.  We started gabbing about politics, and I heard various lines like "Layton would be good to have a beer with, but he could never run the economy," and "the NDP would screw up the credit rating with taxes and businesses would leave, causing massive unemployment."  He was a blue Lib.  He then looked at the paper, and said, "this isn't right, they're saying the NDP will take most of Quebec.... but the Bloc will take it....it's impossible."  He got kinda surly with me after this. 

Anyway, his amazement at the prospect of the Bloc losing out to the NDP reminds me of some who are astonished to see the Cons falter and the NDP gain.  I've also heard Libs talk about how they're sure Quebec was a one off, and it will return Liberal.  I can't wait till election day.  NDP majority.  I can feel it.

But yes, it's just one poll (and it is Forum, which is sometimes a bit erratic in its results).  I look forward to it being replicated by other polls.  And it being replicated on election day.

Ipsos: NDP 33 LPC 30 CPC 29.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2189008/new-poll-shows-tight-election-race-acr...

Headline aside, you don't have to read past the first sentence to realize you are reading Liberal bullshit.

Conservatives have reason to fear NDP in Southwestern Ontario

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/conservatives-have-reason-t...

Whoa!

Let's just say if that's the Liberals top priority, things are not looking good for the trust fund kid!  

Holding Montreal Island seats top priority for Liberals: Hébert

If the election had been held this week the Liberals would again have been locked out of most of the province. Even on Montreal Island, some of the remaining Liberal strongholds are under siege.

Are the federal Liberals about to run out of safe seats in Quebec? Six months ago, the question would not have crossed anyone’s mind. Back then, Justin Trudeau seemed poised to hold the handful of seats that had withstood the 2011 orange wave and win back a chunk of the ground lost over the last three elections.

Today, according to the latest CROP poll, the party is running a dismal third across francophone Quebec, some 38 points behind the NDP.

If the federal election had been held this week the Liberals would again have been locked out of most of the province.

Even on Montreal Island, some of the remaining Liberal strongholds are under siege.

In Mount Royal, Anthony Housefather, the municipal politician tasked with keeping Pierre Trudeau’s former seat and the riding’s large Jewish community in the fold, is facing a serious Conservative challenge.

In Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, former astronaut Marc Garneau has a fight on his hands. Earlier this month the former head of the Old Brewery Mission, Jim Hughes, beat five opponents for the NDP nomination. Liberals familiar with the riding believe he is a serious threat to one of the party’s last Quebec stars.

The NDP says it has also set its sights on Trudeau’s own Papineau riding. Former CBC/Radio-Canada journalist Anne Lagacé Dawson will carry the party flag in that battle.

By talking up their prospects in Papineau, the New Democrats may be getting ahead of themselves. Trudeau has established a personal connection to the riding and he did beat poor Liberal odds twice.

Still, in the last election the Bloc Québécois won 26 per cent of the votes in Papineau. If that support collapses in favour of the New Democrats — as it has been province-wide — the Liberal leader could be in trouble.

For the many federal Liberals in Quebec who saw Trudeau as a saviour at the time of his leadership victory two years ago, the first three weeks of the election campaign have been sobering ones. The party is nowhere near where it had expected to be in Quebec.

Some of that climate change was in evidence as the Liberals picked a candidate for the riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville on Sunday.

More than 2,000 members showed up to vote for one of the four contenders but despite the record attendance, the mood of the senior Liberals on hand for the meeting was, for the most part, subdued.

It took Mélanie Joly — a former Montreal mayoral contender — three ballots to win the nomination, to the immense relief of the Trudeau team. She was the leader’s handpicked candidate and the last thing he needed as his party tries to finds its bearings in Quebec was what would have been cast as a nomination debacle.

But Joly’s path to a seat in the House of Commons has undeniably become rockier since she first set out to run for Trudeau. While the Liberals have been engaged in a prolonged and divisive nomination contest, former BQ MP Maria Mourani has been working the riding hard on behalf of Mulcair.

For now, the Liberals’ game plan in Trudeau’s home-province still involves trying to climb out of the basement in francophone Quebec.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/24/holding-montreal-island-se...

Aug 27 - CBC Poll Tracker

NDP / 37%, Up 4%

Cons / 28%, Down 1%

Libs / 26%, Down 2%

BQ / 4%, UC

Grns / 4%, Down 1%

The only way the NDP will ever govern is if they receive a majority government from the voters.

Has the NDP ever polled at 40%, a majority government since the beginning of the CCF?

 One thing IPSOS and FORUM have in common is the order of the parties, the NDP is in first, the Liberals are in second and the Tories are in third.

 This is a hint that a major shift has gone on and makes things even less predictable.

Ekos: NDP 33.6 (+1.8), Con 28.1 (-2.1), Lib 26.7 (+2.5)

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/28/ekos-poll-duffy-awakening-slumbering-elec...

josh wrote:

NDP at 44 in Quebec. Ontario essentially a three-way tie. Pretty clear that the Forum poll was a total outlier.

I wouldnt say a "total" outlier - both Ekos and Forum have the CPC losing support and both the NDP and LPC gaining...Forum just has a more pronounced version of that trend - but its not as if they are showing opposite trends.

Agreed.  Forum was an outlier.  The slight slump w/ the Cons is to be expected given the news of Duffy trial recently.  The next polls will be interesting to see how people react to Trudeau's recent gambit.

Aug 28 '15 

Just updated with EKOS and Innovative Research polling

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https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

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Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Pollsters Polling

4 Canadawide Non-Pollsters such as Aggregators, etc. Polling - Always remember: Garbage In = Garbage Out

5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

6 Regional Pollsters Polling

7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

8 Regional Leadership Polling

9 Political Trends Seats

10 Political Trends Popular Vote

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1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

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2 Latest polling details:

Innovative Research - Aug 26

NDP / 32%

Cons / 30%

Libs / 27%

BQ / 4%

Grns / 6%

-----------------------------------

Aug 25 - EKOS

NDP / 34 Up 2%

Cons / 28%, Down 2%

Libs / 27% / Up 3%

BQ / 4% / UC

Grns / 6%, Down 1%

-----------------------

3 Canadawide Pollster Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

Aug 26 '15 / Innovative Research / 32%, Down 2% / 30%, 29%, Down 1% / 27%, Up 1% / 4%, Down 1% / 6%, UC

Aug 26 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, UC / 29%, Down 2% / 30%, Up 2% / 4%, UC / 4%, UC

Aug 25 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 2% / 28%, Down 2% / 27%, Up 3%  / 4%, UC / 6%, Down 1%

Aug 24 '15 / Forum / 40%, Up 6% / 23%, Down 6% / 30%, Up 2% / 3%, Down 1% / 3%, Down 1%,  NDP majority government with 174 seats 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 36% / 32% / 23%

Aug 21 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 30% / 30% 

Aug 19 '15 / Forum / 34% / 29% / 28% 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%

Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

4 Canadawide Non-Pollster Polling such as Aggregators , etc. - Always remember: Garbage In = Garbage Out

Date / Source / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ/ /Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19%

Aug 25 '15 / CBC / 32% / 29% / 28% / 4% / 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 21 '15 / CBC / 34% / 29% / 28% / 4% / 5% - Liberal media complex

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5 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

6 Regional Polling

Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 21% / 58% / 13%

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%

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Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 30% / 25% / 39%

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

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Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 26 '15 / Angus Reid / 37% / 32% / 22%

Aug 25 '15 / Insights West / 41% / 22% / 24% / 12%

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

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Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

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Regional Polling MB/SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% / 

--------------------------------

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '125 / ASngus reid / 31% / 48% / 18%

Aug 13 '15 / Insightrix / 35% / 39% / 21%

---------------------------------------

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 24% / 44% / 27%

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Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 33% / 35% / 28%

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 24 '15 / Angus Reid / 51% / 14% / 17% / 17%

Aug 17 '15 / CROP /  47% / 13% / 20% / 16%

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

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Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------

7 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau

Aug 19 '15 / Forum / 29% / 24% / 21%

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

8 Regional Leadership Polling

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9 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

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10 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

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Please post latest polling - thanks. 

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3,300 (+600)

NorthReport wrote:

The only way the NDP will ever govern is if they receive a majority government from the voters.

Has the NDP ever polled at 40%, a majority government since the beginning of the CCF?

Yes, prior to the 1988 election under Broadbent, and shortly after Audrey was elected Leader the following year I believe. 

I think the Conservatives hate the Liberals even more than they hate the NDP, so I think if they finished a poor second or third they would wait until they felt it was to their advantage to force an election to use their monetary advantage. However if they finish third or a poor second I think the knives would be out for Harper, and I think the incoming government would clean-up the unfair elections act and limit the length of and spending in election campaigns. 

Should the Conservatives finish second, and the Liberals finish third, I can see the knives coming out for both their leaders. 

Inceasing the size of the Liberal caucus won't be enough for all those Liberals who can't stand the fact that they aren't either the government or the Official Opposition.

If it's an NDP minoority, niether the Conservatives or Liberals will want to force an election until they have both gotten new leaders.

Then again, theer's always the possibilty that the Liberal caucus could split with one faction in favour of supporting the NDP to get rid of the Conservatives and the other supporting the Conservatives to keep the NDP from taking power.

 Norman Spector retweetedGeorge Smith ‏@GeorgeNDP  8h8 hours ago

@nspector4 biggest, most energized rally I've seen in Halifax. Understanding hotel staff had to open hall to increase capacity.

-------------------

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  8h8 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted George Smith

Must have been great energy in that room - even came across on TV

Norman Spector added,

George Smith @GeorgeNDPWhat an incredible turnout in Halifax this morning! #NDP https://twitter.com/johalifax/status/638013688578985984 …

------------------------------------

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair stirs up orange wave in Halifax

Halifax West candidate Joanne Hussey says the NDP could ‘absolutely’ sweep all HRM ridings.

JEFF HARPER/METRO

Nova Scotia candidates (from left) Alex Godbold, Robert Chisholm and Joanne Hussey share a laugh before a media scrum on Sunday at the World Trade and Convention Centre.

http://www.metronews.ca/news/halifax/2015/08/30/ndp-leader-tom-mulcair-s...

Abacus is further evidence that Forum was an outlier.  It's a close three way race.

josh wrote:

Abacus: NDP 31 CPC 30 LPC 28http://abacusdata.ca/race-narrows-as-ndp-support-dips/[/quote]

guess the attacks are working. hope those who are trying to bring the NDP down get what they believe they won't.

jjuares wrote:

quizzical wrote:

josh wrote:

Abacus: NDP 31 CPC 30 LPC 28http://abacusdata.ca/race-narrows-as-ndp-support-dips/

guess the attacks are working. hope those who are trying to bring the NDP down get what they believe they won't.

No all the polls are showing a three way split. Others who show differently I believe I just outliers. The Liberals have had growth since the debate.[/quote]

That's true.  Especially in Ontario.  I think though that the debate helped solidify the NDP's foothold in Quebec.  And I think by having Harper admit that things economically aren't as rosy as he had been trying to project was useful.  Also, with Mulcair now seen as an underdog, the next debate could be a turning point.  Or not.  Who knows?

Still, it's early.  I think things will go well for the NDP.  And the Lib/Con attack of the NDP making all sorts of promises they can't possibly afford to keep mutes the criticism that they're abandoning principle and moving to the right.  Currently the criticism is they're too left and too spend-thrift on programs to possibly deliver.  This, I feel, is exactly where we want it to be.  With competent administration, not only can you vote for change, but you can actually get it.  The presentation of proposals, then the debates, and the upcoming release of a fully costed platform will capture people's imagination, I think.  Do people want more of the Lib/Con tax cutting side show, or do they want real government with the NDP?  We'll see.  But I feel people will want the latter rather than the former. 

If I didn't take Forum's poll seriousely when it has the NDP at 40%... because Forum is Forum.

I'm sure as heck not going to take Abacus any more seriously, especially since it coming from Bruce Anderson (a know liberal pundit) and Maclean's, whose been trying to take a hatchet to the NDP and Mulcair since befor the election.