Sorry Cody, seeking a politcal home, NDPP but.......
A Hillary Clinton secret: lots of voters really like her
U.S. presidential nominee has an overlooked but large base of devoted admirers. Her greatest strength is Democratic women 50 and older.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/10/30/a-hillary-clinton-secret-l...
While i think national numbers for trump will propably show him leading at end if their no surprises. I must admit the state numbers look dodgy for trump. Both sides seem to have solidifed their bases, will you can agrue demograhic groups will be key. My presecpitive i am looking how the indepentents break, if independents break in a sgnificant way for trump then he wins. If the indepentents go half and half then trump loses. I can also address the whole idea of the bais that trump talks about the silent majority. i dont recall the name of the effect but people have a bais to look good in the eyes of people around them, its just one those bias that exist in frame of a social science polling. Since people think that trump is cad then will not admit to the pollsters that will not vote trump in the polls but will vote for trump in polling booth. This effect event is maybe worth a point, but i am doubtful because no polling has effectively showed no proof of silnet mafority.
In Feb in the made the following prediction on rabble.
Hilliary will beat sanders check
Trump will become the rep canadiate. check
Trump beats hillary ??????
iam 2 for 3 at the moment
It's called the shy Tory effect. Most recently seen in Brexit.
Also, remember that polls are weighting their samples so there is about 7 percentage points more democrats voting than republicans (same as Obama in 2008). If this assumption is wrong, (say the population actually only has 3 percentage points more democrats like in 2012), then this means the polls are off by roughly that amount.
To make this clearer:
Say that after weighting you poll 100 people.
35 democrats
28 republicans
37 independants
For simplicity, assume the dems go straight clinton and repubs straight trump. Assume independants slightly favour trump (so 20 for trump 17 for clinton).
That's 52-48 in favour of clinton. But if it's actually 33 dem 30 rep 37 independant then we're now 50-50.
If Trump pulls lots of new voters (like in the primaries) which are ignored by most, but not all, likely voter models, then this could have a big impact even ignoring the shy tory effect.
Consider that 8% more democrats than republicans voted in 2008 primaries. In 2016 primaries, 1% more republicans voted. Lots of evidence that independents decide this election.
Nope. Independents went for Romney and Obama still won. Moderates decide the election.