Dec 11 2017 By-Election Thread

Guess I'll put this here:

Denis Lemieux, Liberal MP for Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has announced he'll be stepping down.

Why is Denis Lemieux stepping down?

And yes, the race was close last time, but NDP numbers have fallen since then, so it might be more secure for the Liberals now.

Debater wrote:

Why is Denis Lemieux stepping down?

And yes, the race was close last time, but NDP numbers have fallen since then, so it might be more secure for the Liberals now.

The decline in NDP numbers was in the polls taken during what we could now call the "Mulcair Twilight".  With something of an increase in party support since the election of a new, personally charismatic leader, it may be a different story...particulary if that leader chooses to spend a significant amount of time campaigning for in this riding.  

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection-there's no possibility of a Con gain in the riding and it wouldn't matter if the Cons DID gain it, because the Liberal majority is still solid and there won't be a federal election anytime soon.

 

When there is a majority government few care about by-elections which usually have zero bearing on future general election results

NorthReport wrote:

When there is a majority government few care about by-elections which usually have zero bearing on future general election results

From 2011 to 2015 only two seats changed hands in by-elections and both were Liberal gains. One was on the East Coast and one was in the City of Toronto, both areas where the Liberals won every seat in 2015.

double post

WWWTT wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection

Yes but the last by-election in Lac-Saint-Jean the narrative was framed "Do you want an MP in government or in opposition?" The Conservatives said they lost that by-election because the voters in Lac-Saint-Jean wanted an MP in government.

And this is a very strong argument with merit! I never go more than say 3-4 years without contacting my MP,MPP regional councilors with issues that need to be resolved. This past year I have been in contact with all 3 levels. I even got into a direct argument with a couple and they fuckin hung the phone up on me!!! But that was a mayor and regional councilor and I hope they get their sorry asses voted out! That really freekin pissed me off!

If you vote for someone because they are the party in government, then that says something about our faulty system now doesn't it!

It is also a bad way to look at things. If you consider your needs and values the right party or candidate may be more helpful. For example, during the last Conservative regime I had helped a number of people with immigration issues and had to appeal to MPs. This is one of the most significant jobs MPs have given how dysfunctional the CIC became (you could not reach them by phone -- not answered, they did not respond to mail, you were not allowed to walk into an office without appointment). The Conservative MPs tended to be unsympathetic and unhelpful. Both Liberal and NDP MPs were very helpful.

Looks like the Liberals will be gloating Monday nite as they are probably going to take Conservative Watt’s old riding in Surrey

Bad news for the PCs and NDP?

Maybe, but maybe not, as both opposition Leaders are relatively new and unknown 

ONT 2015 Results Scarborough-Agincourt

Con       15,802    38.0

Green        507       1.4

Lib          21,587     51.9

NDP         3,763      7.9

BC  2015 Results  South Surrey-White Rock

Con         24,934      44.0

Green       1,938        3.4

Lib          23,495      41.5

NDP         5,895       10.4

Yeah, it looks like a pretty uneventful night in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity.

Meanwhile, results are taking a while to come in from Scarborough—Agincourt.

Liberals take Surrey-White Rock, a pickup from the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the NDP went from 10.4% of the vote in 2015, to 4.9% in this byelection.

I understand the NDP was not going to win this riding. I don't understand why NDP leader Singh didn't even bother to visit the riding. I mean, he's running around the country, so why not stop in and fly the flag. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if most of the vote that left the NDP went to the Liberals, and gave them the riding. In the overall scheme of things that doesn't change much, except to give the Tories a bit of a hurt. Likewise, if the Tories had won, it wouldn't mean much in that it was their riding to begin with.

But elections, even byelections, give politicians chances to get their picture in the paper, and gets their thoughts and opinions into print. The fact that Singh didn't take the opportunity to get a bit of that publicity is not a good sign, as far as I'm concerned. 

NDP support drops in Singh's 1st real test

"Things might have turned out better for him (Scheer) had the night not been so disappointing for the NDP's newly minted leader, Jagmeet Singh. NDP support dropped in all four ridings, dashing any hopes the Conservatives might have had that Singh could peel voters away from the Liberals, particularly in suburban Toronto and the Greater Vancouver region. ...

The New Democrats haven't yet had to defend one of their own seats in byelections. But Monday's vote posed the first real test for Singh, who became leader after the kickoff of the last set of byelection campaigns in October.

The party dropped an average of 3.8 points across the four ridings, a worse result than the NDP's 2.2-point decrease in four byelections in April when the party was in the midst of its leadership campaign.

The 2.8-point loss in Scarborough–Agincourt, in the city where Singh was born, and the 5.5-point slide in South Surrey–White Rock, in a province that is key to the NDP's electoral hopes in 2019, should be disappointing for the party as the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas are where Singh has the most promise for NDP gains in the next election.

Though the NDP retained its second-place showing in Battlefords–Lloydminster, the only silver lining for the party on Monday, it was with its worst result there in its modern boundaries. The party's scores in South Surrey–White Rock and Scarborough–Agincourt were the lowest since 1993 and 2000, respectively, the two worst elections in the party's history."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-dec-byelection-results-1.4443695 

These are dismal results for the NDP.
 

From kropotkin1951:

South Surrey White Rock is unwinnable for the NDP because of demographics.

​I think that's true, but it doesn't explain why Singh didn't take the opportunity of a byelection to try speak to the voters of BC; and it doesn't explain why the NDP vote was cut in half.

The NDP in that riding had 19.2% in 2011 and 10.4% in 2015 and 4.9% in the by-election. Whose fault is the declining NDP vote in this riding?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Surrey%E2%80%94White_Rock

From kropotkin1951:

Whose fault is the declining NDP vote in this riding?

​Well, we know that Mulcair, and his campaign, were blamed for the losses of the 2015  election. That was the reason for sending him to pasture, and electing a new leader. The new leader was supposed to fix things; get the NDP out of the stodgy old past into the bright new future.

Now, if it was only this riding where the NDP lost support, it could be for a number of reasons. But they lost support across the board. They lost support in every riding byelection.

I don't think it's so much who to blame, as to ask, what has Singh done for the party?

I like it.   Eyes on the prize!

Mighty Middle wrote:

these four ridings wouldn't even be part of their majority. So they didn't really lose anything last night

The fallacy here is not recognizing that the NDP voting demographic in the Surrey and Scarbough ridings, albeit small, is likely representative of the NDP voting demographic in neighbouring ridings which the NDP must win.

WWWTT wrote:

For me it’s disappointing to see There’s still a big chunk of Canadians that are flakes and lack vision.  

That attitude does not serve the left. That people don't see what you see doesn't make them flakes lacking vision. It would be more constructive to figure out why they vote the way they do and what has to change to bring those people to the left.

If the left genuinely believes that leftist policy would improve the lives of the 99% then all that is needed is a means of convincing others that their lives would be improved under the policies proposed by the left.

Failure to convince people of your argument is not on them.                  

The party has sent out a fundraising email tonight that reads:

_______,

Yesterday we suffered some hard losses in four by-elections across Canada. We had four great candidates with incredible teams, and so many dedicated volunteers – but we were outspent.

Days like this are frustrating, but I can already see the renewed energy in our party. With Jagmeet's unique ability to connect with people, our energized caucus, and active members ready to grow our movement, I already see a change, _______.

But we can't be outspent like this again – we need to be ready. That's why we're committed to getting $50,000 in the bank by Thursday. _______, will you chip in $250 today to help?

I don't like losing, _______, and we have a plan to change things – it starts with using some of our winning tactics from Jagmeet's leadership campaign to strengthen our team.

On the digital side, that means innovative tools that will change the way we organize and connect with people. But to implement those tools across Canada, we need to hit our end-of-year fundraising goal – and right now we need you to help out.

_______, will you give $250 today – and get $___ back at tax time? Help us hit our goal of $50,000 by Thursday and chip in:

ndp.ca/end-of-year

Thanks,

Nader

Nader Mohamed
Digital Director
Canada's NDP

Does anyone else find it ridiculous that they're claiming they lost in all 4 byelections because they didn't have enough money? That I need to pay for them to do better?! When Singh didn't even bother campaigning in the ridings. Screw that - they're not getting any more of my money.