Ontario Election June 7, 2018

Looks like Horwath is going for the Christian vote with her strong stance on keeping alcohol out of corner stores.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Here's an interesting chart, from a Global News story.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

 

I saw that chart and it is misleading. Of course Wynne is going to campaign in ridings she already holds - because she has a majority of the seats and she needs to keep them.

And of course Horwath is going to go into ridings she doesn't have - because she has the fewest and needs to win new ones!

 

However the poll does show the Liberals are playing defence as Wynne is spending 79% of her time in Liberal ridings when they won 54% of seats in the 2014 election. The PCs are also on defence but to a much lesser extent as Ford is now spending 33% of the time in their own ridings, which were 26% of all ridings in the 2014 election. On the other hand, the NDP leader is the only leader spending less time in the 19% of ridings they won in 2014, as Horwath is spending only 13% of her time in NDP ridings. 

It also shows that Horwath is focusing more on winning Liberal ridings, spending 70% of her time which is 16% more than  the 54% of ridings held by the Liberals in 2014, although she is also spending 33% of her time Conservative ridings, which is 7% more than the 26% of ridings that the Conservative ridings. 

NorthReport wrote:

Jagmeet Singh opening for Andrea today? Is this the largest crowd of the campaign for the NDP?

Tom Parkin‏ @Tom_Parkin_

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Tom Parkin Retweeted Marieke Walsh

Wow, BIG rally. NDP organizers say there are 1,000 people at Horwath’s rally in Peel Region.

Tom Parkin added,

0:11

Marieke WalshVerified account @MariekeWalsh

At packed @OntarioNDP rally in Brampton, @theJagmeetSingh is the opening act for @AndreaHorwath #onpoli #onelxn #ontariovotes

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11:33 AM - 21 May 2018

https://twitter.com/Tom_Parkin_/status/998632967634341888

Wow! 1K people at a rally in Brampton? Brampton is a traditional PC stronghold (but not in recent years I'm thinking). If this is really true, then Doug Ford is in serious serious trouble!!!!

I believe Ford needs a strong showing in Brampton, for numeric and traditional reasons. If several seats swing to the ONDP in Brampton, then the ONDP and socialist issues can never be belittled in Ontario ever again!

Actually Caledon/Orangeville is probably the strongest PC fort, but a strong showing in Brampton will pull in stronger ONDP number for C/O! For me, this is huge news for the ONDP!!! If ONDP can make a strong second place numbers in Caledon Orangeville, it would be a strong possibility that the federal NDP can form government in 2019!

jerrym wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Here's an interesting chart, from a Global News story.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

 

I saw that chart and it is misleading. Of course Wynne is going to campaign in ridings she already holds - because she has a majority of the seats and she needs to keep them.

And of course Horwath is going to go into ridings she doesn't have - because she has the fewest and needs to win new ones!

 

 

However the poll does show the Liberals are playing defence as Wynne is spending 79% of her time in Liberal ridings when they won 54% of seats in the 2014 election. The PCs are also on defence but to a much lesser extent as Ford is now spending 33% of the time in their own ridings, which were 26% of all ridings in the 2014 election. On the other hand, the NDP leader is the only leader spending less time in the 19% of ridings they won in 2014, as Horwath is spending only 13% of her time in NDP ridings. 

It also shows that Horwath is focusing more on winning Liberal ridings, spending 70% of her time which is 16% more than  the 54% of ridings held by the Liberals in 2014, although she is also spending 33% of her time Conservative ridings, which is 7% more than the 26% of ridings that the Conservative ridings. 

I think you are still underestimating the reality that the Liberals have a majority and so the seats they need to win are in their hands whereas many seats the Conservatives need are in Liberal hands and almost all the seats the NDP needs are in other hands.

In other words if the parties spent even time campaigning across all seats the chart would not look much different than this.

Good to see that the issue of poverty in Ontario is being addressed, at least to a greater extent than is typical in our elections.

As Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, Green party Leader Mike Schreiner and representatives from the Progressive Conservatives and NDP watched from the front row, Lawless and other anti-poverty activists called on all parties to make Ontario a fair and equitable place where everyone belongs.

Ontario for All, a coalition of more than 70 organizations, wants the leaders to commit to policies and programs that reduce gender, racial and income inequality, and create pathways to prosperity for almost two million Ontarians living in poverty. ...

Anti-poverty activists have spent the past 15 years pushing the Liberal government to rebuild Ontario’s social safety net after an era of punishing cuts under the previous PC government of Mike Harris.

They dread a return to the austerity of the 1990s, when the Harris Tories slashed welfare rates by 22.6 per cent, cancelled the construction of 50,000 affordable housing units and froze the minimum wage at $6.85 an hour for eight years.

That is why they are focused on ensuring all parties in the June 7 election continue to strengthen supports for the province’s most vulnerable residents.  ...

“The nature of the labour market means work on its own is not going to provide that pathway, and that is why these kinds of income security reforms are so important.” ...

Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats are building on that idea by proposing affordable dental carefor all Ontarians in a sweeping $1.2-billion program for about 4.5 million adults and seniors who are without workplace or pension coverage. It would be free for individuals with incomes under $30,000.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/21/ontario-election-camp...

As much as many here dislike strategic voting it is also a factor.

In the previous election there would ahve been some anti Liberal strategic voting. And some Anti Conservative strategic voting towards the Liberals.

Now the concentrations of support may reflect  less strategic voting against the Liberals given how they seem out of it (likely there was not all that much to begin with) and strategic voting going towards the NDP against the PCs. What this means is that these numbers could show that Liberal support even at a low point may be a little more concentrated than anticipated and so might the NDP getting a little push in bad Liberal ridings from Liberals hoping to stop Ford.

This could mean that the Liberals retain a few more seats than these numbers might suggest and the NDP take a few more from the Conservatives.

There is also the strong possibility that the distribution of Ford's vote might not mirror the previous PC leader and that he might do a bit better in some of the 905 seats and lower in others. Depending on how that works out Ford could either get more seats or fewer as these universal seat projections prove incorrect and the distribution not be universal but more grouped.

The same could be true in other ridings between the NDP and Liberals. The universal changes suggest Ottawa Centre going NDP and the NDP support increases not being productive elsewhere in Eastern Ontario. However, if the NDP rise is more to their better seats, Ottawa Vanier (a long shot with a flat increase) could also go to the NDP as an example. Elsewhere, there are other weird things you see with the universal regional switches like the Liberals holding Beaches, Spadina, University, Thunder Bay-A, Etobicoke N, Scarborough C, Cambridge, Elgin, Lambton, Mushkegowuk which I think would more likely go NDP with this kind of movement in their favour.

And the question remains...have Unifor moved away from their early position, which was an effective endorsement of the Liberals?