CBC Pundit Worst Crisis in the Canadian History of relations with the US

Kudlow: Trudeau 'Stabbed Us In The Back'

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/10/kudlow-trudeau-stabbed-us-in-t...

"We were very close to making a deal with Canada on NAFTA, bilaterally perhaps, and then we leave and Trudeau pulls this sophomoric, political stunt for domestic consumption..."

Trump's Tweets Undo Weekend of G7 Diplomacy

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/g7-communiqu-leaders-negotiations-1.4699871

"There were deep divisions between the leaders and Trump that made a unanimous communique unlikely. There was broad disagreement at the G7 table, especially on trade and climate. From Canada's perspective, NAFTA remains unsolved. It's clear this meeting did nothing to move the leaders close to settling the big economic issues that divide them. 'The US has been taken advantage of for decades,' the US president said. 'We are like the piggybank everybody is robbing."

LOL! An awful mess...

SeekingAPoliticalHome wrote:

CBC had the Larry Kudlow trump economic official on American sunday shows how "Trudeua stab the US in Back".  This just for American consumption throwing shade of the Canada.  Trump is opening the way to make Canada an example with in trade issues, I didnt hear the whole thing, if Kudlow the mentioned the 25 tarrif on Canada cars there is going to alot ugly go around.  And CBC the PM saying something in French and running away form the media.    

The Muscovite Candidate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1005830706667380736/video/1

Peter Navarro says 'There's a Special Place in Hell for Justin Trudeau'

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/10/politics/peter-navarro-justin-trudeau/ind...

"Peter Navarro, a trade adviser to President Donald Trump escalated the White House's rebuke of PM Justin Trudeau...."There's a special place in hell for any foreign leader that engages in bad faith diplomacy with President Donald J Trump and then tries to stab him in the back on the way out the door,' Navarro said on Fox News Sunday. Navarro's comments added to the White House's continued criticism of Trudeau, who said after Trump left the G7 summit that Canada would impose retaliatory measures and warned that Canada would not be 'pushed around." [Really? That'll be a first.]

See also: McCain to Allies: 'Americans stand with you even if our president doesn't.'

 Canadian elite solidarity from Doug Ford to Bob Rae in 'support' of Trudeau. Prepare to be played and suckered, the show is just beginning...

A plague upon all their houses!

NorthReport wrote:

Maybe Trudeau and Freeland are not the right people to be leading Canada in the era of Trump

Perhaps Mulcair, who openly called Trump a Fascist, would have been a better choice?   They would have gotten along just fine, I'm sure.  

josh wrote:

All this is politically probably the best thing for Trudeau since he was elected PM.

I think it's a mixed bag.   The election of Ford suggests that negativity, nationalism and bullying are rubbing off on a significant portion of Canadians.  That's why leadership is so important.  It serves as an example for the general population.   Elect a bully and bullying become more socially acceptable.  The NDP can celebrate their 40 seats all they want, but it's actually a disastrous result for Ontario.   And it will likely have a negative effect on the rest of Canada. 

I didn’t say calling him one.  But keeping firm against him.

Canadians can relax. Trump has moved on to North Korea and apparently this is just Trump's method of showing Kim Jong-un that he's a tough guy.   

The co-author of The Art of the Deal said Trump didn't really write the book.   He just behaves like a school yard bully, picking on Canada, of all places.  Yet he admires Putin and Duterte.

josh wrote:

I think the point is you need someone who will stand up strongly against the Nazi

Like Harper, who said give the Americans anything they want on NAFTA? 

There is no dealing with Trump. It isn't possible to negotiate with him. Trump is his way or the highway. His way is so terrible that the highway is the only choice available. 

It's anyone's guess what will happen from here. Trump doesn't seem to have left himself any back down room but that doesn't really matter because Trump creates his own reality which he changes day to day. Tomorrow he could be saying he and Trudeau are like family and it's just a brotherly spat nothing more. Or, he could put in those auto tarifs. 

The "good" news is that he is doing just as much damage to the US economy and international corporations are flipping  out. 

Trump's Parting G7 Threats to Canadian, Dairy, Autos a Real Cause for Concern: Trade Insiders

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trump-s-parting-g7-tweets-to-canadas-dai...

"We have to prepare and we're very worried and should be very worried on this side,' said Charest. A senior Liberal source told Evan Solomon, host of CTV's Question Period, that American-inspired tariffs on autos would be close to an existential threat to Canada's economy..."

Some thoughts -

First the 1812 war only involved parts of what became Canada and it is possible that trade issues could do more economic damage to Canada than the destruction of invasion back then. Hard to say.

Secondly this is not about US-Canada relations being in a crisis per se. This is about US relations with most of the world. when you consider the environment then it is literally with the world and not even just with the poeple who live here.

There is, however, a recognition that happens on the way to a war you do not want. For a period you do all you can to avoid it. Then you realize that you cannot avoid it and must win it. And then you do what you need to win.

Trump is not in a great position becuase he is far more vulnerable than he thinks he is and the other countries of the world understand his position better than he does. Trump believes that he and the US is one thing and that when he threatens he brings to bear all that is TRUMP/USA.

The rest of the world understand that they cannot defeat the US without a great deal of pain and more unity than they would be able to produce. Once they know that a war with Trump is inevitable, they will turn to the next strategy avaiable after appeasement and avoidance is no longer viable.

That next strategy is to leverage against Trump the forces against him in the US. This is fitting since that was Putin's strategy as well.

Trump seems to be stupid enough to miss the point here and that his weakest card is trade. Few in the US like Trump. Here is there for the money. His vile politics is music to the ears of the GOP and, with the exception of trade, he may have been unbeatable, even posing a threat to the insitutions meant to put any check on Presidential power. This is the scotch tape holding up the fig-leaf of US democracy.

But trade is money. Policies on trade create both a present split through Trump's GOP alliance and a threat to the well-being of Trump supporters that even the most dense among them would have a hard time ignoring.

The G6 (now that the G-7 is only a figment of imagination, history, and misplaced hope), is well aware that this is a glaring weakness for Trump. They are aware that he cannot see it because his ego does not permit him to see himself seperate from the US state. And so the G6 now aware that conflict is inevitable understand that the US split will not happen without help and that they cannto survive in a recognizable form with pushing Trump out. Most of these G-6 leaders know that they cannot survive the economic shocks that Trump could visit on their economies and understand that their fight against Trump is for their political careers now existential. Trump, in his arrogance, fails to understand that he has entered a fight for political survival with a half a dozen countries (I count a couple non G6 countries and don't count Italy which is not in such a political battle, having already entered the crisis the others are fearing).

These countries all understand that Trump has to be hit politically/economically square in the middle of his alliance of convenience with the GOP. Once they understand that this battle cannot be lost nor avoided and can only be won, and they understand that it can only be won by using US-based power, their strategy is clear. They have to hit hard, fast and prior to the midterms. They have to damage the economies of states that could consider voting for the GOP. They have to shake the US electorate into taking a decisive action. They have to shake US Congress into a recognition that apologies saying they disagree with their President are not only useless but embarassing.

In short global pressure on the US has to come quickly rather than slowly and has to be strong enough to make the US act to stop Trump.

If it is strong enough the GOP even has an option. If the GOP, mindful of their trade concerns depose Trump, prior to the elections, the they won't have to wear Trump in the elections. If they do not then the US voters will have to punish the GOP hard to get to Trump. It is a gamble as to whether they could get off the hook at this point but the possibility exists and it is now greater that they would suffer more by going into the election with Trump or having themselves contained him.

The US people and Congress, I don't think are there yet.

I think the G-6 is.

If so, then the G-6 may be all in on attacking Trump as much as they were in stroking his ego previously (possible exception Italy).

If this is the case, Trudeau may decide that the short term pain of this strategy while Trump retaliates may be less than the long term pain that cannot be avoided.

This is based on an understanding of human nature in disagreement: people are often conflict averse, but when they realize that a person cannot be reasoned with and that their peaceful attempts are pointless, then they may turn on a dime. If you want to use aggression to get your way, you always have to indicate that this aggression will stop once you do. Trump has broken this rule and now nobody can count on, not only his word, but the idea that giving him anything he asks for will make him any better than he is.

NDPP wrote:

'Depressing': Merkel Slams Trump's 'Withdrawal by Tweet' Following G7 Summit Fallout

https://on.rt.com/97aj

"...The German chancellor also said she is not ready to 'give up on the G7' but would seek dialogue with Russia and try to 'work very closely' with Japan, Canada, India and China. Her interview came a day after Trump refused to endorse the G7 Summit's communique that called for reducing tariff barriers..."

The decline of the West...

We actually may be witnessing the setting of the colonial old boys club g7. 

Nothing of any real interest and far from inspiring coming out of this shit show that repeats every year.  

Im yet to read anything decent from a g7. 

The g7 and SCO side by side comparison is a huge embarrassment for the west. Even if Trump has an agreeable manner, nothing worth wile would ever see the light of day. 

And the g7 seems more than comfortable continuing the shit show vicious circle. 

There is going to be great pain for Canada.

However, the extremes Trump goes to are very likely to be the end of him. This is very predictably the very wrong battle for Trump. It is his most serious confrontation and he is going in with his party divided over an issue of jobs and money. He is going to blunder his way into getting screwed by his own party.

For Canada the calculation is now different. Trump will cayuse a recession. Our choice is either--

Fight back hard to the point where it hurts Trump enough that he is removed and the recession is short and deep over the summer.

or

Try to mitigate where the pain could last years and lead to far greater long term losses.

The pain is now seen to be one that will last until Trump is gone. Anything that can be done to damage Trump hjas to be a priority of every country dealing with the US who is now compromised by him. The realization that no reason can reach him has dawned on all of them.

The G-7 portended great pain for Canada but also the end of Trump.

It's ironic that we're relying on corporate America to be the voice of reason with Trump.

Ken Burch wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

josh wrote:

I didn’t say calling him one.  But keeping firm against him.

Is there anything Trudeau could have differently?   I doubt Trump is attacking Trudeau because he was too nice.   Trudeau publicly critisized the US tarrifs, in a very professional manner, triggering the Trump twitter rant.

And when other heads of government are nice to Trump, he just condescends to them and humiliates them.  There's no effective "play" on this for anybody trying to negotiate with the guy.  The best approach is to simply wait until the Big Macs and the KFC buckets take him down.

I believe that was the strategy but the recent G-7 debacle on trade is making it clear that trump does not need much time to cause more chaos. As a result a more short term strategy has to be found.

I think the real anger from Trump is that Canada is doing just that -- making alliances within the US that are causing more trouble for Trump. Trump ought to have seen this coming since it was always clear that the trade file is where his party were not in agreement and where the most money for GOP donors was a stake and the issue that woudl affect the greatest number of jobs.

John Ivison: Public Anger at Trump's Bully Tactics Creates Conditions for Boycott America Campaign

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-public-anger-at-trumps-bully...

"It's as if Donald Trump has sent a convoy of frigates down the St Lawrence. The potent brew of indignation and patriotism among Canadians at the president's bully tactics has produced conditions ripe for a Boycott America backlash.

The Town of Halton Hills in Ontario voted Monday on a motion that would see it encourage its residents and businesses to consider avoiding US goods..."

How Canada Can Boycott Donald Trump

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/how-canadians-can-boycott-donald-trump/

"...You're reading this because you want to hit back and hurt Trump in the only place he cares about - his wallet. Here's how..."

Donald Trump Slams Trudeau (Again), Says PM Will Cost Canadians 'A Lot of Money'

https://globalnews.ca/news/4268418/donald-trump-justin-trudeau-cost-cana...

"US President Donald Trump slammed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during his press conference following historic talks with North Korea on Tuesday, saying Trudeau's post-G7 comments would 'cost a lot of money for the people of Canada...."

bekayne wrote:

Pondering wrote:

That brings me to something that has begun to puzzle me. Why isn't the stock market reacting to Trump's threats? 

That's a very good question. For years and years I've heard "the markets hate uncertainty, the markets hate uncertainty." Well, here's Mr. Uncertainty.

 

Probably multiple answers:

1) The markets have been hurt - you cannot know what would be the numbers if this had not happened

2) The markets might not all be as fearful what is going on - while they will damage exports, this would reduce the value of the dollar accordingly. That difference in currency may amount to more when it comes to competative positions than tariffs. Canada is unlikely to lose international arbitration on these and even if the US pulls out of NAFTA international tariffs are not that high.

3) This is a measure of risk against the calamity - markets may be betting that the problem is not as severe (see above) and that the risk is lower since the GOP are against it.

4) The markets may be full of people who disbelieve Trump

5) The markets already have to price in a downturn given the cycle. This could make a downturn worse or it could hold the market back enough that a downturn might be put off.

6) Most are looking past Trump. This may be a miscalculation but for the time being markets may assume that Congress will restrain Trump in 2019. That leaves only six months at maximum to deal with this. Maybe less, if the GOP decides it is worried enough to put him on a leash earlier.

7) Markets are already reacting to the other pro-business, anti-poor, capitalist agenda of Trump and the GOP. This might negate this.

8) The absolute most important to realize is that markets are the marker of the health of the wealthy more than the entire economy. Even as others do have money in the market, the trends go with the wealth not the pension funds etc that follow along to make money or the small time investor. If the wealthy figure they will be okay, the markets won't move by much. It is possible that the markets figure that with the tax cuts and all, likely it is just the middle class and the poor that will suffer and the wealthy will just make more money.

9) The consumer confidence and spending part of the economy has been changing as wealth concentrates and things are made in different places -- it is a different consumer and a different product. Today many more people spend most of their money on essentials that will move less on confidence than need. The ones who really spend on confidence is a an upper income group that will make more money in a recession after tax cuts than a good economy without them.

10) The markets may think that Canadian tax cuts will have to follow US ones -- even if that means the destruction of social programs. If they gamble this in, they may figure that even as 90% of people suffer, the 10% with the real money will actually do better. If that is the case the markets will go higher, even as the economy suffers for most people.

11) Markets reflect the globalization now. Even if the North American economy is bad generally, there are other places to make money. If the capital class is not suffering they do not have to care as much for the rest of the country.

In other words, Markets are much more sophisticated that just a single threat and headline AND markets are also often wrong and they do not care about the general population except where there is a consumer advantage. So it is not a shock to see this.

I have expected that there would one day be a recession where the wealthy class may not care becuase it would not be a textbook one affecting them. In other words the GDP will not shrink even as most people suffer. The welathy will get more in tax cuts than they will give up in income. Austerity on the masses will not hit them very hard. This is where we have been headed with the previous so-called jobless recovery. This is the trend that has lead to a middle income group that is almost gone while the government drones on about a so-called middle class.

So a few thoughts here -- and even if only some are correct, that would be enough to explain why the markets are not reacting.

It is important, in class politics, to ask these questions as the answers are critical  -- so good you raised the question.

Bad move America!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/states-that-supported-trump-would-get-hi...

Slavo Zizek: EU Must Create A New World Order to Stop Donald Trump

https://on.rt.com/97dz

"With the disintegration of the system that dominated world trade from 1970, the US is increasingly becoming the disruptor of world trade. In contrast to 1945, the world doesn't need the US, it is the US which needs the world. In global economic terms, it's war.  And it's here that the response of EU nations and Canada is insufficient: instead of advocating a new vision, they act as an offended party complaining that the US broke the established rules..."

Recriminations, Threats, Between US and Allies Continue After Collapse of G7 Summit

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/06/12/trad-j12.html

Trump and his 'America First' agenda express the disorientation and outrage of the American ruling elite over the massive decline in the world economic position of American capitalism over the past five decades, and their failure to reverse the decline by means of military violence.

Under the conditions and in the context of a global crisis of the capitalist system, the US is resorting to the methods of trade war in an attempt to offload its crisis onto its major competitors..."