Ontario politics commencing June 11 2018

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NorthReport
Ontario politics commencing June 11 2018

Perfect time for Andrea to come out for one publicly-funded secular school system!  

Sex ed changes will only harm children

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2018/06/11/sex-ed-changes-w...

Issues Pages: 
Regions: 
NorthReport

Sound like anyone we know here!

Quick post-mortem for Ontario 2018

The Progressive Conservatives proved the polls right (well, mostly, see below) and got their majority. I don't have all the results per riding but I have enough to write a quick post-mortem to an election which ultimately was a good one for me and people making projections.

 

1. The polls.

 

Polls weren't bad but they also weren't great, at least not in average. The IVR polls (Forum, Ekos and Mainstreet) did really well while online polls (and live callers) missed the PC-NDP gap by quite a lot.  And one firm, Abacus, missed completely. Mainstreet had the best overall accuracy but they didn't have the Green within their Margins of error (note: MoE vary with the level of support for a party. A party at 5% does NOT have the same MoE as a party at 50%. Polls usually only report the MoE for a party at 50%). Forum had all 4 parties within the MoE... so hard to say who won. Let's call it a tie between Forum and Mainstreet. Funny enough, these are the two firms often criticized online (I have some annoying people on Twitter for instance who always want me to ignore these firms lol).

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/quick-post-mortem-for-ontario-2018....

NorthReport
NorthReport

dp

 

NorthReport

This is a big change

Liberals ‘paying price’ for formwork legislation, LIUNA charges

https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/government/2018/06/liberals...

NorthReport

2018 ONTARIO ELECTION

This is how the Ontario Liberals were decimated on election night

The Liberals lost most of their strongholds. They lost to three other parties. And most of the time, it wasn’t even close.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/this-is-how-the-ontario-liberals-were-d...

NorthReport

73 new MPPs bring fresh perspectives to Queen’s Park

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/06/08/73-new-mpps-bring-fre...

NorthReport
NorthReport
epaulo13

2,000 Striking York University Staff Forced Back To Work Without a Contract

The workers said neoliberal policies had made their jobs more precarious. Ontario’s new right-wing government didn’t care.

Classes are starting at Toronto’s York University after Canada’s longest-ever post-secondary strike came to an abrupt end this summer without a new agreement in place for 2,000 contract teaching and research staff who walked off the job five months ago.

The newly-elected right-wing government in the province of Ontario passed back-to-work legislation at the end July that forced the employees whose collective agreement expired last August to pack up the picket lines and return to work....

Contract professors join graduate teaching and research assistants and their children from York and University of Toronto at a "stroller rally" on March 11 in Toronto, Ontario. University workers went on strike for several months in favor of better wages and job security. (Photo by Vince Talotta/Getty Images)

epaulo13

Student walkouts against Ford show labour the way

Thousands of students from every corner of the province walked out of classes today and yesterday in a massive show of opposition to the recent attacks on education, including its rollback of the “sex ed” curriculum, and cancellation of discussions to include more Indigenous knowledge and history in school curriculums. Reports suggest that as many as 40,000 students took part in the #WeTheStudentsDoNotConsent Ontario student walkout....

Aristotleded24

Support for PCs drops, while support for the NDP, Greens, and Liberals rises

I was quite surprised to see Liberlal support rise that much, considering how unpopular the previous Liberal government was. That said, my takeaway from these numbers is that Ford is very beatable.

jerrym

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Support for PCs drops, while support for the NDP, Greens, and Liberals rises

I was quite surprised to see Liberlal support rise that much, considering how unpopular the previous Liberal government was. That said, my takeaway from these numbers is that Ford is very beatable.

A lot of the anti-Liberal vote was anti-Wynne and she predicted her own defeat but asked people to support the Liberals because she knew she was so unpopular. It's not surprising that the Liberal poll numbers have improved somewhat considering that. 

 In the final days of a volatile election campaign, Kathleen Wynne went from vying to stay on as Ontario’s premier to fighting for her party’s survival.

The Liberal leader and longtime politician had already acknowledged what she could no longer ignore – that for a variety of reasons, many people simply don’t like her – but had urged voters to look past personality and focus on policy.

But when neither that admission nor her policy savvy at the final leaders’ debate managed to turn the tides, and with polls showing the Liberals in danger of losing official party status, Wynne made an unexpected play.

Predicting her own defeat, she urged voters to nonetheless support her candidates, saying a Liberal presence was needed to hold the next government to account.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4254511/ontario-election-kathleen-wynne-figts...

 

NDPP

Where is the Unions' Inspiration in the Fight Against Doug Ford?

https://briarpatchmagazine.com/articles/view/unions-ontario-fight-agains...

"In the months ahead, we can create an inspiring model of effective resistance - but for this to happen, the power of organized labour must be unchained."

epaulo13

Details

Join us November 17th. We’re co-creating a day long climate justice event, in continuity with previous People's Climate Assemblies! The Toronto People's Assembly on Climate Justice 2018 will feature workshops, panels, and assemblies on themes of Indigenous sovereignty and self-determination; labour and economics; migrant justice; violence against people and land; food, medicine and sustainable alternatives; the far right and climate change.

The Toronto People’s Assembly on Climate Justice asserts that climate change is not a future social and ecological crisis, but a current one and that those most impacted are those most marginalized. Rich nations like Canada contribute significantly to global emissions, though do little for harm reduction, adaptation or mitigation of the global climate crises. Over the past decades, governments and industries globally have inhibited real action on climate change and global emissions have continued to increase. To this end, we seek to center the voices and wisdom of those most impacted, and seek solutions from the grassroots.

***Toronto People’s Assembly on Climate Justice 2018 Theme Statements***

***Indigenous Sovereignty and Self-Determination*** Indigenous self-determination and sovereignty have proved to be critical pathways to creating healthy relationships with the land, as well as ensuring its protection. Resource extraction, military force, and settler-colonialism contributed to the creation of so called ‘Canada’. Those communities currently on the front lines of struggle have much to teach about the impacts of resource extraction and parallels with the past. Today, broken treaties are used as the basis to push through many projects that impact both local communities and the global climate. Those pursuing climate justice need to act with integrity to support Indigenous, Metis and Inuit Peoples asserting sovereignty over their lands.

We’ll be hosted by the ***Multifaith Centre at University of Toronto*** an accessible space. Free lunch and entertainment will be provided!

quizzical

so Doug Ford is making it impossible for fair elections with 40% of the vote. 

guess Ontarians should have gone PR.  BC had better.

NorthReport

My, how the high and mighty have fallen when they deceive the people, eh.

Liberals now down to only 6 MLAs in Ontario!

NorthReport

Not a big fan of Doug Ford, however ensuring that drivers can use a washroom when they are making deliveries is right on. Who would want to deprive someone from using the washroom? Anyway the PCs are legislating it, and that's how you win elections..

Ontario proposes legislation to allow delivery drivers access to washrooms at businesses

https://globalnews.ca/news/8282962/ontario-legislation-washroom-access-d...

josh

New Democrats led by Andrea Horwath have taken a three-point lead in vote intention in Ontario ahead of an expected provincial election this June (36% NDP versus 33% PCPO

https://angusreid.org/provincial-politics-quebec-ontario-election/

Michael Moriarity

I'd like to think that this poll is correct, but it appears that it may be an outlier. Most of the polls this year show the Cons ahead, in the mid 30s, with the NDP and Libs close to even in the high 20s. There is also an Innovative Research poll released one day before the poll from Angus Reid that shows the Liberals in the lead at 36% and the NDP trailing at 22%. We'll just have to wait for more polls.

kropotkin1951

Was that poll before or after Doug's photo op of him shoveling snow?

nicky

Little consistency in recent Ontario polls.


 

nicky

nicky

Sorry,

I've been trying to paste a graffic composite of the recent polls.

Here are the numbers instead:

Abacus : C37 L28 N 25 G 5

Ekos 35 26 27 5

Innovative  35 36 22 5

mainstreet  31 28 27 6

Angus Reid  33 19 36 4

Of some interest are the "other parties," presumably the gaggle of right wing fringe parties that have sprouted up. In 2018 "others" got less than 2%. These polls give them average of about 8%.

 

Michael Moriarity

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Was that poll before or after Doug's photo op of him shoveling snow?


Before. It was Jan. 12, and the photo op was this Monday, Jan. 17. But somehow I doubt Dougie will get much of a bump from his snowstorm antics.

robbie_dee

nicky wrote:

Here are the numbers instead:

Abacus : C37 L28 N 25 G 5

Ekos 35 26 27 5

Innovative  35 36 22 5

mainstreet  31 28 27 6

Angus Reid  33 19 36 4

Of some interest are the "other parties," presumably the gaggle of right wing fringe parties that have sprouted up. In 2018 "others" got less than 2%. These polls give them average of about 8%.

wow so these are all over the place and any one of the three major parties could be in 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Liberals have the largest variance between 19%-36% and NDP between 22%-36% which I find believable as it probably reflects wherever the "anti" Conservative vote has settled in that particular poll. The Ford Conservatives seem to have the highest floor at 30%. What do you think is the minimum threshold to win a majority? Rae won one in 1990 with 37.6%, right?

kropotkin1951

Michael Moriarity wrote:
kropotkin1951 wrote:

Was that poll before or after Doug's photo op of him shoveling snow?


Before. It was Jan. 12, and the photo op was this Monday, Jan. 17. But somehow I doubt Dougie will get much of a bump from his snowstorm antics.

I expect the opposite of a bump with his snow shoveling. Shoveling snow is a new one but probably less effective than his normal shoveling of bullshit.

NorthReport

How could this situation have been avoided?

Is it too late to sort it out now?

What a mess!

https://www.wellandtribune.ca/ts/politics/provincial/2022/04/12/ndp-says...