2020 US Presidential Election Polls

NorthReport wrote:

We are a long way away from voting day and it appears that Trump may have the US involved in another war, maybe with Iran by then, as desperate people do desperate things

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/22/trump-approval-mueller-report-1286386

Maybe. It depends on if Trump wants to hold this war until early 2020. Unless Trump gets desperate I think this will come after the Canadian election if he can help it.

That said you could be right becuase Trump could let it out of control by provoking Iran into a response.

This is tragic for the people of Iran who are and will pay dearly for this.

NorthReport wrote:

Well things sure have changed, eh!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Wow, this shows Sanders ahead in almost every state, and far ahead in delegate totals at the convention. Projected pledged delegate totals: Sanders 1,510, Biden 1,029, Warren 610, Buttigieg 485, Bloomberg 239. If things go this way, it will destroy the Democratic party if Sanders is deprived of the nomination.

Majority approve of Trump's handling of coronavirus:

Quote:

The majority of Americans now approve of President Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from just one week prior, according to a new Ipsos/ABC News poll.

Of those surveyed, 55 percent said that they approved of the president's handling of the situation, while 43 percent said they disapproved. The numbers were basically reversed from one week ago when 54 percent said they disapproved and 43 percent approved.

Trump's tone and approach to the outbreak has changed in recent weeks, with the president now appearing at daily briefings at the White House with his coronavirus task force. Trump said this week that he knew that COVID-19 was a pandemic before it was labeled as such by the World Health Organization, despite his previous rhetoric downplaying the severity of the virus.

This during Biden's documented absence during the pandemic. Redardless of how this plays out, I'm confident in predicting Trump will come out on top. The Democrats have been lazy and hoped that Trump will implode without offering anything. If we've learned nothing else about him, it's that he's learned how to play people. Trump can flip any of his own criticism of the cornoavirus handling by reminding people that Joe Biden and the Democrats risked the lives of their own supporters by telling them to vote during a pandemic. If I were advising Trump, I would advise him to do just that.

Forget winning back the Rust Belt. Maine, Maryland, Virginia, Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado are all now reasonably in play for Donald Trump. Biden is on track to fall short of 200 votes in the Electoral College, possibly even below 150. This kind of shift in voting patterns will also hand the popular vote to Trump.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Remember also that the Republican governor of Ohio pushed to postpone the Democratic Primary. Think about that. A Republican governor showing more concern for the health and safety of Democratic voters than their own party did.

I think you are only looking at one side of this. The other side won't play well either.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/republican-jim-inhofe-dumped-up-to-450000-in-stock-the-fourth-gop-senator-implicated-in-scandal-report/

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Remember also that the Republican governor of Ohio pushed to postpone the Democratic Primary. Think about that. A Republican governor showing more concern for the health and safety of Democratic voters than their own party did.

I think you are only looking at one side of this. The other side won't play well either.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/republican-jim-inhofe-dumped-up-to-450000-in-stock-the-fourth-gop-senator-implicated-in-scandal-report/

Neither side is clean on this is my point. Trump doesn't have to be good on this. He just needs enough to flip it back on the Democrats. With the continuing of the Primary and the documented tone-deafness of the Democratic Party leadership as per Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti, Trump has exactly that.

Fair enough. I think the next few months may change whomever has the edge as this is what people will be thinking about. It may be difficult to predict who will end up with the edge as the incumbant government is more likely prone to mistakes but also that is often where people turn in an emergency.

Also to your point, expectations for Trump are so low that he does not have to perform well to impress.

Dr. Anthony Fauci did a facepalm after Trump mentioned the 'Deep State Department' in a wild coronavirus briefing

JKR wrote:

If Trump is re-elected the US will have sunk to an incredibly unbelievable low point.

Trump Uses Coronavirus Press Conference to Confirm He’s an Actual Sociopath; Vanity Fair

This is exactly why the Democrats keep losing. I and many others here have given specific reasons why the Democrats have failed, both in doing their actual jobs and at political strategy. You have not engaged that substance at all, opting only to respond with "but Trump! But Trump! But Trump!" We know Trump is bad. What are the Democrats actually offering? If you cannot refute the actual criticims thrown at Democrats, then you really don't have an argument to stand on.

And "Vanity Fair?" When hasn't this publication been anti-Trump? All these anti-Trump outlets are saying the same things they've been saying for 5 years, but they haven't yet figured out a way to break out and find an effective way to channel the anti-Trump sentiment to actually drive him out of office.

And please don't counter with the rebuttal that "Trump lost the popular vote." That's true. Do you know why? It's because New York and California, the 2 biggest states, are so safe for the Democratic Party that they campaigns instead focus on smaller swing states. You can bet that if the Electoral College was abolished, the Republicans would adjust their strategy, thus giving Republican voters in Texas, New York and California an incentive to come to the polls in possibly greater numbers than they do now. Doesn't matter anyways. I'm convinced that if Trump wins, it's going to be such a huge bloodbath in "safe" blue states that it will push Trump over the edge in the popular vote anyways. The official counts in Florida and Iowa were enough to give Bush the popular vote in 2004, now imagine what happens when all those states that stayed blue in 2004 flip to Trump.

JKR wrote:

- The Democrats will expand healthcare in the US to cover many more Americans. I think Biden will pledge to enlarge healthcare in America to cover every single American.

Which Democrats are you talking about? Biden in the debate cited Italy as proof that single payer health care isn't effective. The Democrats are in the back pockets of the same pharmeceutical and medical profiteers that are blocking single payer, and despite the massive mandate that was handed to him, Obama did not imlpement single payer or even fight for a public option when he had the chance. The reform he ended up introducing was something that Mitt Romney did in Massashusetts, which is why he couldn't go after him on Obamacare. But remember that the Republican party as a whole was able to score political points by criticizing it.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to appoint mainstream Supreme Court justices instead of right wing nut jobs.

I think that this is just a liberal fantasy projected onto the Democratic Party without any evidence and also a blatant attempt to scare people into voting for them. Did Obama fight at all to be able to appoint his own Supreme Court Justice after Scalia died? Has any Democratic candidate even raised that issue on the campaign trail, proposing any possible candidates? Bernie Sanders has not mentioned the Supreme Court at all, precisely because his platform is attractive enough that he doesn't have to resort to such tactics. We know that the Republicans are going to nominate horrible judges. I don't see any actual evidence that the Democrat picks will be any better.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to deal with climate change instead of believing it's a hoax.

Where is climate change on the public radar in the US, especially right now? Which Democrats are you talking about? Are you talking about Bernie Sanders, who while endorsed by the Sunrise Movement, is belived by many to be out of contention for the nomination at this point? Are you talking about AOC, who has been stymied and blocked by the leadership in the House including Nancy Pelosi? Are you talking about Diane Feinstein, who brushed off a group of school children begging for a Green New Deal and who earned praise from Ben Shaprio for so doing? The Democrats have accepted money from the same fossil fuel lobbyists as the Republicans, so they may have a bit of renewable energy in their platform, they still will continue the fossil fuel economy. Remember also that it was under Obama's watch that conflict with Native Americans in North Dakota and security forces over the pipeline reached a head.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to reduce student loan debt.

Which ones, and where? Repbulican Congressmen and Senators have also advocated debt relief in certain ways.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to establish election campaign spending reforms that put greater limits on political contributions.

Which ones?

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering not to cut social programs like the Republicans have and continue to plan to.

Democrats have also proposed means-tested benefits for people, while Mitt Romney has also advocated direct cash payments to all Americans.

JKR wrote:

Unlike Trump the Democrats are offering to unite people instead of hating people.

What does this plattitude mean? People want to see how practical realities play out in their daily lives. That is also tone-deaf to human nature. It's not uncommon for people who are generous with their time and money in helping people within their own communities to also think we are taking in too many refugees that we have to take care of. Also look at how countries have reacted around the world by closing borders. When Trudeau announced his inital border closures, he took a great deal of flack for not also barring Americans from entering. With this triablistic human instinct, Trump can very easliy promise to protect Americans by scapegoating outside agents, and that is a psychological trick that happens to work. I'm not defending any of this, but I always maintain that you cannot defeat what you cannot understand. Repeating the same liberal talking points that we have been since the Democrats have been losing Presidential elections in 2000, 2004, and 2016 will not advance anything.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:

- The Democrats will expand healthcare in the US to cover many more Americans. I think Biden will pledge to enlarge healthcare in America to cover every single American.

Which Democrats are you talking about? Biden in the debate cited Italy as proof that single payer health care isn't effective. The Democrats are in the back pockets of the same pharmeceutical and medical profiteers that are blocking single payer, and despite the massive mandate that was handed to him, Obama did not imlpement single payer or even fight for a public option when he had the chance. The reform he ended up introducing was something that Mitt Romney did in Massashusetts, which is why he couldn't go after him on Obamacare. But remember that the Republican party as a whole was able to score political points by criticizing it.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to appoint mainstream Supreme Court justices instead of right wing nut jobs.

I think that this is just a liberal fantasy projected onto the Democratic Party without any evidence and also a blatant attempt to scare people into voting for them. Did Obama fight at all to be able to appoint his own Supreme Court Justice after Scalia died? Has any Democratic candidate even raised that issue on the campaign trail, proposing any possible candidates? Bernie Sanders has not mentioned the Supreme Court at all, precisely because his platform is attractive enough that he doesn't have to resort to such tactics. We know that the Republicans are going to nominate horrible judges. I don't see any actual evidence that the Democrat picks will be any better.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to deal with climate change instead of believing it's a hoax.

Where is climate change on the public radar in the US, especially right now? Which Democrats are you talking about? Are you talking about Bernie Sanders, who while endorsed by the Sunrise Movement, is belived by many to be out of contention for the nomination at this point? Are you talking about AOC, who has been stymied and blocked by the leadership in the House including Nancy Pelosi? Are you talking about Diane Feinstein, who brushed off a group of school children begging for a Green New Deal and who earned praise from Ben Shaprio for so doing? The Democrats have accepted money from the same fossil fuel lobbyists as the Republicans, so they may have a bit of renewable energy in their platform, they still will continue the fossil fuel economy. Remember also that it was under Obama's watch that conflict with Native Americans in North Dakota and security forces over the pipeline reached a head.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to reduce student loan debt.

Which ones, and where? Repbulican Congressmen and Senators have also advocated debt relief in certain ways.

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering to establish election campaign spending reforms that put greater limits on political contributions.

Which ones?

JKR wrote:

The Democrats are offering not to cut social programs like the Republicans have and continue to plan to.

Democrats have also proposed means-tested benefits for people, while Mitt Romney has also advocated direct cash payments to all Americans.

JKR wrote:

Unlike Trump the Democrats are offering to unite people instead of hating people.

What does this plattitude mean? People want to see how practical realities play out in their daily lives. That is also tone-deaf to human nature. It's not uncommon for people who are generous with their time and money in helping people within their own communities to also think we are taking in too many refugees that we have to take care of. Also look at how countries have reacted around the world by closing borders. When Trudeau announced his inital border closures, he took a great deal of flack for not also barring Americans from entering. With this triablistic human instinct, Trump can very easliy promise to protect Americans by scapegoating outside agents, and that is a psychological trick that happens to work. I'm not defending any of this, but I always maintain that you cannot defeat what you cannot understand. Repeating the same liberal talking points that we have been since the Democrats have been losing Presidential elections in 2000, 2004, and 2016 will not advance anything.

I hope the Democrats come out with a leftish election platform. I think once they come out with their electric platform it will be easier comparing them to Trump and the Republicans. This pandemic and deep recession has thrown the whole world upside down so who knows what will happen between now and November. The next few weeks alone could bring about huge unpredictable changes. I think Covid-19 has been the biggest demonstration since 1929 of why we need much more socialism in the world. I can't see the Republicans playing any role in bringing that about. I hope the Democrats can at least move their country in that direction but I may be wrong which seems ludicrous after COVID-19 has exposed so many flaws in our political and economic systems. Healthcare for all should be a utterly complete no-brainer now. Everyone in the U.S. should clearly see now why every American should be able to be covered by Medicare for free if they choose it. I think Biden will support giving Americans the choice of being covered by Medicare if they choose so while also giving other Americans the choice of keeping their private health insurance if they want. I don't see the Republicans supporting any public health care at all. 

JKR wrote:

I hope the Democrats come out with a leftish election platform.

Actually now is a great time for political parties to come out with platforms. Spring gardening season is upon us, so we are going to need some fertilizer.

In all seriousness, you "hope?" Has anything actually happened to indicate that they will do so?

JKR wrote:

I think Covid-19 has been the biggest demonstration since 1929 of why we need much more socialism in the world.

It could also spike a rise of nationalism. I mentioned upthread that Trudeau was criticized for initially not restricting Americans from entering Canada. Or for a more recent example, take a look at almost any MSM story about Trudeau saying he was going to turn back asylum seekers who don't go through border checkpoints. Many of the commenters are suggesting he is 3 years too late to the party.

And the political trends went towards fascism in Germany and Italy post-1929. They would have also gone that direction in the US had the planned coup against Roosevelt not been exposed by a high-ranking General who knew what war was about.

JKR wrote:

Healthcare for all should be a utterly complete no-brainer now.

I don't know if Medicare for All has lost a single exit poll in any of the statest that have held their prmiaries, but it looks right now like voters have overwhemlingly rejected the Presidential candidate who is running on that platform.

JKR wrote:

I think Biden will support giving Americans the choice of being covered by Medicare for choose so while also giving other Americans the choice to keeping their private health insurance. I may be wrong though.

Let's just put aside that you "think" Biden will support this idea, even though he previously said he would consider cutting Medicare and you have offered no evidence to suggest he would support that idea. Look at how this scenario would play out. The insurance companies would offer cheap, attractive packages to healthy people easy to insure who could afford it. Those harder to insure would be dumped onto the public system. The public system would then be under strain, thus allowing the Republicans to use the talking point about how government always messes things up.

There will always be diehard Trump supporters but when something bad happens that people believe could have been averted they usually blame the incumbant no matter what he says or even no matter what the truth is. 

The democratic states acted first. The Republican's have no choice but to copy them. Blue states are more urban so the virus has spread fastest there but Republicans in Red states have been listening to Trump. All their experts are saying we have to keep the economy going and minimizing the risks. There is the potential those states will be decimated even worse because they are business as usual. How well will Republican states fair against Democratic states? It will matter.

I think he is wrong. How do you think the American health care system will work in comparison to Canada's? How about other social services? Will they be housing the homeless in repurposed buildings like Montreal is doing with the Royal Vic? 

The differences, or lack thereof, between countries will be stark so it depends on whether or not you think Canada's responses will lead to significantly different outcomes. 

JKR wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

All Trump has to do is convince the same people who voted for him last time that they should vote for him again. He is going to get re-elected by being a racist asshole. Doubling down on "Chinese" flu plays really well to his people. His move to buy the German company was classic reality TV and his base lapped it up. That is why they voted for him, to make America the boss again. Then the icing on the cake is he will start sending them checks before November. He doesn't have to flip votes only hold on to the nasty racist xenophobic nationalists that got him elected in the first place. My money is on him retaining his vote. So the only question for me is whether the Democrats are going to get more people to vote for them this election than they did when Hilary ran. I think the answer appears self evident.

I think and hope to God that you are completely wrong. After the last few months the re-election of Donald Trump would be insane. The US is headed for a horrible pandemic and an economic depression. I think Trump will go down as the worst president in US history. The world needed to and still needs to come together to deal with the Covid-19 crisis. Trump has made that almost impossible.

I agree with everything you wrote. It is not cheering for your enemy to understand how it is they can succeed. In BC I know that nearly 50% of the voters will again vote for the BC Liberals despite objective proof they were corrupt to the core and incompetent with the public finances. That is how right wing voters act all over the world no matter how fucking bad the governments they elect perform.